Generational Dynamics World View News

[Xeraphim1]

Putin is not happy...


Putin 'very angry' with own henchmen as Russian leader 'truly unhappy'

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/15 ... ar-updates

RUSSIAN sources claim Putin has attacked his own intelligence officers and placed them under house arrest in a burst of fury at Russia's stuttering invasion of Ukraine.

Putin 'very angry' with own henchmen as Russian leader 'truly unhappy'
RUSSIAN sources claim Putin has attacked his own intelligence officers and placed them under house arrest in a burst of fury at Russia's stuttering invasion of Ukraine.

The report from the inside comes just a day after it was reported that the FSB, successor to the KGB, had provided inaccurate information to Putin in order to avoid upsetting him in the build-up to the invasion. Philip Ingram, a security expert and former senior British intelligence officer, said that Putin was “very angry” at the misinformation.

It now appears to be getting worse for the Russian despot as Andrei Soldatov, co-founder and editor of investigative website Agentura, reported via Twitter that he had heard from Russian sources Putin had placed several members of the FSB under house arrest and was “truly unhappy”.

An alleged report by an FSB officer stated: “We have been increasingly pressed to customise reports to the requirements of management.

“All these political consultants, politicians and their retinue, influence teams - all this created chaos. Now, even if Zelensky is killed, taken prisoner, nothing will change.”

Mr Ingram claimed that Putin blames the FSB “for seeding him the advice that led to the poor decision-making in Ukraine.”

Mr Soldatov today tweeted: “Putin appears to be truly unhappy with the FSB in Ukraine.

“Sergei Beseda, head of the Service, and his deputy Bolukh, head of the DOI, placed under house arrest, according to my sources inside.”

The editor had earlier told The Times that the FSB was “not a competent organisation.

“The final reports that they produced on the situation on the ground in the run-up to the invasion were simply not right, which is part of the reason as to why things have gone so badly for Russia.”

It would appear from these reports that Putin expected a much weaker Ukraine that could be taken quickly and with minimal resistance. Their opening invasion consisted of light forces backed up by air strikes to take targeted locations.

Since then they have broadened their focus - and Putin has even reportedly replaced eight of his generals.

Oleksiy Danilov, head of Ukraine's security council, yesterday claimed that “around eight” Russian commanders had been fired since the invasion began.

https://twitter.com/AndreiSoldatov/stat ... 654575eb6a

[John]

Numerous posts have been moved to DaKardii's Topic.

viewtopic.php?p=64483#p64483

[John]

** 11-Mar-2022 World View: Presentation at Fort Devens

> I like to join everybody to thank John for conceptualizing
> Generational Dynamics and putting it out for me and the rest of
> the world to discover. For many years, I would read about world
> events and say “WTF?” After coming to this website and reading all
> his books, more of the world makes sense. This was crystalized
> after John spoke to my unit and the reaction of all the attendees
> to his briefing where many said, “I think he is right.” I
> understand somewhat how you feel about getting old and it is a bit
> of a struggle to stay optimistic about life, but I feel I will do
> my best and keep my square meter of earth tidy. What else can you
> do other than as the US Girls Scouts say “Make the world a better
> place” and I do by talking up GD at dinner with my friends and
> family?

> With the CDC saying Boston is now “low” on the pandemic level, I
> can buy you a few pints of your favorite beverage, I will stick
> with Irish mouthwash, at the Miracle of Science Bar + Grill in
> Cambridge. This is at your convenience.

> It is an honor to know and work with you. Be proud of what you
> have contributed to the betterment of the human race. It is a lot
> more than 90% of the residents of this planet can say.

And I always considered it a major honor that you invited me to Fort
Devens in 2011 to give a presentation on Generational Dynamics and
Forecasting to your Military Planning unit.

For anyone interested, the presentation slides are still available on
my web site:

*** Presentation, Saturday, June 4, 2011, 10 am - Fort Devens
*** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... ntable.htm

The slides are a little bit out of date, but they've held up pretty
well in the last ten years.

Unfortunately, Bob, I'm going to have to pass on your offer to buy me
a drink, since leaving my apartment for even a few minutes is tiresome
and painful. You're welcome to visit me in my apartment, if you'd
like, but you'll have to bring your own Irish mouthwash. (All I can
offer is diet coke.)

Thanks for your message, and thanks again for your invitation ten
years ago.

[DaKardii]

Numerous posts have been moved to DaKardii's Topic.

viewtopic.php?p=64483#p64483

Upon further debate within that topic, I've reversed my position on the origin of COVID. While I still believe it's possible that the US "leaked" COVID out of the Wuhan Lab, I no longer believe that it's probable. Now I'm leaning more towards the CCP being behind the "leak."

[DaKardii]

Unfortunately, Bob, I'm going to have to pass on your offer to buy me
a drink, since leaving my apartment for even a few minutes is tiresome
and painful. You're welcome to visit me in my apartment, if you'd
like, but you'll have to bring your own Irish mouthwash. (All I can
offer is diet coke.)

John, you don't have to answer this if you don't want to, since it's a personal question.

Why is leaving your apartment for even a few minutes "tiresome and painful" for you?

[Tom Mazanec]

Russia owes Western banks $120 billion. They won't get it back
By Charles Riley, CNN Business
Updated 5:28 AM ET, Fri March 11, 2022
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/10/investin ... index.html

Russia says it could seize assets Western companies leave behind
By Mark Thompson, CNN Business
Updated 2:11 PM ET, Thu March 10, 2022
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/10/business ... index.html

[El Cid M]

U.S. should abandon ambiguity on Taiwan defense: Japan's Abe
Former prime minister floats possibility of hosting American nuclear weapons

Japanese former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe says the U.S. should abandon its ambiguous stance on how it would react to an attack on Taiwan. Reuters

KEN MORIYASU, Nikkei staff writer
February 27, 2022
TOKYO -- Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Sunday that it is time for the U.S. to make clear that it would defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion and ditch its longstanding strategic ambiguity.

"The U.S. takes a strategy of ambiguity, meaning it may or may not intervene militarily if Taiwan is attacked," Abe said on a Fuji TV morning talk show. "By showing it may intervene, it keeps China in check, but by leaving the possibility that it may not intervene, it makes sure that the [Taiwanese] forces for independence do not run out of control," he said.

"It is time to abandon this ambiguity strategy. The people of Taiwan share our universal values, so I think the U.S. should firmly abandon its ambiguity," he said.

Abe added that "a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency," explaining that Japan's westernmost inhabited island of Yonaguni is just 110 km from Taiwan's main island. If China were to conduct an operation, it would first seek to establish air and sea superiority around Taiwan, he said.

"If it were to secure wide air superiority, it would also cover Japan's airspace. [China] would conduct operations in and above the waters too, so this would affect Japan's territorial waters, or at least our exclusive economic zone."

The former prime minister also floated the possibility of hosting U.S. nuclear weapons in Japan. "In NATO, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and Italy take part in nuclear sharing, hosting American nuclear weapons," he said. "We need to understand how security is maintained around the world and not consider it taboo to have an open discussion."

Japan, the victim of nuclear attacks in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, has for decades adhered to "three non-nuclear principles" -- vowing that it will neither possess nor manufacture nuclear weapons, nor permit their introduction into Japanese territory. A nuclear-sharing agreement with the U.S. would be a major policy shift and could face significant domestic pushback.

Abe's words come amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and as countries in the Indo-Pacific ponder whether current deterrence measures are enough to prevent China from taking action in the Taiwan Strait.

Prominent American foreign policy experts such as Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass have called for a shift to "strategic clarity" on Taiwan, as have several members of Congress.

But senior figures in the administration of President Joe Biden have repeatedly said that they are sticking with strategic ambiguity. In his confirmation hearing, U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns said, "The smartest and effective way for us to help deter aggressive actions by [China] across the Taiwan Strait will be to stay with a policy that's been in place."

Abe said that a switch to strategic clarity would not mean a change to the current "One China" policy implemented by the U.S., Japan and many other countries.

"The Western countries take the position that they respect the Chinese stance that Taiwan is a part of China. If things are kept as they are, that is the status quo," he said. But he added: "We should make clear that we will not allow the status quo to be altered by force."

When asked if that means that the "One China" policy will be respected as long as the status quo is preserved, he agreed. "It means we will respect it," he said.

Under the "One China" policy, which the U.S. has maintained for over four decades, Washington "acknowledges the Chinese position" that there is only one China and that Taiwan is part of it. The U.S. recognizes the government of the People's Republic of China as the "sole legal government of China" but does not explicitly recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan. This is distinct from Beijing's "One China" principle, which considers Taiwan a Chinese province and part of its sovereign claim.

On the situation in Ukraine, Abe said: "Japan's stance is clear in that Russia's violent actions cannot be tolerated. Together with the U.S. and G-7, we need to assist Ukraine in various ways."

[Tom Mazanec]

Russian forces escalate attack in western Ukraine, target military base
March 13, 20225:22 AM ET
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/13/10863276 ... t=nprml&f=

Russian forces struck a military training base in western Ukraine on Sunday, bringing their offensive closer to the border with Poland after a senior Russian diplomat warned that Moscow considered foreign shipments of military equipment to Ukraine "legitimate targets."

Russia intensifies assault, warns U.S. weapons sent to Ukraine are 'legitimate targets'
Nabih Bulos, Jenny Jarvie
Sat, March 12, 2022, 11:47 AM
https://news.yahoo.com/russia-intensifi ... 42510.html

Moscow also signaled it could soon expand the war to embroil Kyiv’s allies, warning the U.S. that it would consider convoys carrying weapons to Ukraine to be “legitimate targets.” A few hours later, the White House announced it would send an additional $200 million in arms and equipment for Ukraine.

[Trevor]

Russia's never recovered from the Great Patriotic War: the Soviet Union lost one-third of its 18-50 male population. Russia's population increased from 110 million to only 145 million. For context, the United States increased in population from 130 to 330 million in the same time frame. Their population plummeted by more than a million people in 2021 and with the sanctions being imposed, I doubt there's going to be much improvement in those numbers.

China's also got the fastest aging population in the world. Their median age has grown 13 years since 1990 and is on par or slightly higher than the United States. And unlike us, they're going to get old before they get rich. They're just beginning to find out how badly they've screwed themselves with their one-child policy and they're not going to be able to bring in enough immigrants to make up the difference. Efforts to increase the birth rate haven't worked for reasons John described in his book. They deleted a demographic report stating their population is already shrinking, which wasn't supposed to happen for more than a decade.

So they've got to make their move now, because for all the chaos and difficulties the West has, it's in a better state than either China or Russia. Oil and natural gas is all Russia has at this point, and while I think they'll conquer Ukraine in the short term, it's going to cost them dearly.

I hear a lot of talk of China having this grand 50-100 year plan, but the short term has a way of negating any long-term plans.

[Guest]

Russia's never recovered from the Great Patriotic War: the Soviet Union lost one-third of its 18-50 male population. Russia's population increased from 110 million to only 145 million. For context, the United States increased in population from 130 to 330 million in the same time frame. Their population plummeted by more than a million people in 2021 and with the sanctions being imposed, I doubt there's going to be much improvement in those numbers.

China's also got the fastest aging population in the world. Their median age has grown 13 years since 1990 and is on par or slightly higher than the United States. And unlike us, they're going to get old before they get rich. They're just beginning to find out how badly they've screwed themselves with their one-child policy and they're not going to be able to bring in enough immigrants to make up the difference. Efforts to increase the birth rate haven't worked for reasons John described in his book. They deleted a demographic report stating their population is already shrinking, which wasn't supposed to happen for more than a decade.

So they've got to make their move now, because for all the chaos and difficulties the West has, it's in a better state than either China or Russia. Oil and natural gas is all Russia has at this point, and while I think they'll conquer Ukraine in the short term, it's going to cost them dearly.

I hear a lot of talk of China having this grand 50-100 year plan, but the short term has a way of negating any long-term plans.

Japan and South Korea seemed to be gearing up for that confrontation right now. I hope America decides to help them.