Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

** 24-Mar-2022 World View: Mortal Threat to Mother Russia

> Most likely, as Shoigu, who liked to parade around in a Russian
> Marshall's uniform (their 5-star equivalent), had ZERO military
> experience, yet was the Russian Chief of the Joint Chiefs/Defense
> Minister in combination. He would have been responsible for the
> overall plan and military readiness. He was very close to Putin,
> and seems to have been a master at "office politics".

> Right now, Putin is probably searching for the military people who
> actually are competent to help extricate him from this mess and to
> rebuild, refit, and re-orient the Russian military.

> Shoigu is a civil engineer who is well known in Russia (and even
> the ex-Soviet Union) for his ability to get things done when he
> managed the emergency response agency. And yes, he has zero
> military expereince.

> However, none of the men Putin has appointed as Defense Minister
> have had any military experience. It is part of Putin strategy of
> humiliating the Russian military. The Defense minister before
> Shoigu, Anatoly Serdyukov, had managed furniture stores. His only
> military service was as a RED army truck driver for two years in
> Soviet Moldova. And before him, the DM was a disgraced KGB agent.
> Puitn doesn't trust the Russian army. Having these particular men
> in charge was a calibrate insult. The exiled oligarch Pugachev
> talked about this directly in a recent interview. Putin is
> weird.

> Yes, this is all part of the long term effort to keep the military
> in check, so as to reduce the risk to the actual leadership.
> Utahbob posted a great link to a twitter explanation of how this
> has been done for year. If people haven't looked at that, they
> should do so.

> Stalin did the same thing, culminating in the purges of the late
> 1930s. The result for him was the disastrous attack on Finland in
> 1939 known as the Winter War. Check this out on Wikipedia for
> background on how competent the Russian Army was as a result of
> Stalin's suppression of military talent.

> Putin, like Stalin, obviously needs to make drastic changes and
> improve military competence and leadership quickly. I would bet
> that right now they are identifying the competent people that have
> been suppressed and never made it to the general officer ranks in
> Putin's system.

> They will need to, with Putin's backing, rebuild and refit their
> military. The question is how fast they can do it. I have
> mentioned previously the drastic measures that would be needed for
> Russia to do this. It is highly questionable that they can pull it
> off.

> I would not be surprised if some kind of negotiated agreement is
> found with Ukraine, just as it was for Finland to end the Winter
> War. This way the Russian army could disengage and go through
> drastic "rehabilitation". However, they could just go on the
> defensive and use their artillery while they build a new and more
> competent national army. I would also not be surprised,
> especially as their economy starts to crater, that they start a
> national mobilization and training program for all military age
> males.

Your remarks about how Putin and Stalin did what they could to cripple
the army are interesting. The Biden administration has been doing the
same thing by purging the army of Trump supporters by labeling all of
them as "domestic terrorists," thus weakening the US army.

However, what you wrote above does not seem entirely consistent with
what you wrote several days ago:

> Russia has always had trouble with war UNTIL there is a
> psychological trigger for them. I would call this the "Mortal
> Threat to Mother Russia". Until this is triggered, the Russian
> Army in its history, has been pretty poor. But once this is
> triggered, they become a different animal. So far, this has only
> happened 3 times, the war with Sweden in the 1700s (Poltava being
> the culmination), Napoleon, and then Hitler's invasions. Once this
> happens, the Russian military, and people, react quite
> differently, as Napoleon and Hitler learned.

So it makes sense that "right now they are identifying the competent
people that have been suppressed and never made it to the general
officer ranks in Putin's system." The problem is that there is no
"Mortal Threat to Mother Russia." Ukraine is no threat to Russia in
any way, since its efforts are completely defensive. So Putin may
identify those competent people, but many of these competent people
may be opposed to the war, in which case they might turn against him.

This would change if the Ukraine war expanded to a larger European war
with Nato -- or if there's a war in the Far East with China. In those
cases, there would be a "Mortal Threat to Mother Russia."

[utahbob]

Here is the NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS)- that is real time of fires on Earth you can zoom into Ukraine and see the war progress. https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/ma ... 1,51.3,10z

[Navigator]

So it makes sense that "right now they are identifying the competent
people that have been suppressed and never made it to the general
officer ranks in Putin's system." The problem is that there is no
"Mortal Threat to Mother Russia." Ukraine is no threat to Russia in
any way, since its efforts are completely defensive. So Putin may
identify those competent people, but many of these competent people
may be opposed to the war, in which case they might turn against him.

This would change if the Ukraine war expanded to a larger European war
with Nato -- or if there's a war in the Far East with China. In those
cases, there would be a "Mortal Threat to Mother Russia."

First, Russians do not view Ukraine as a "foreign country" but as internal. Hence their singing about Ukraine, Moldova, and the Baltics all being part of Russia. So disaster in Ukraine MIGHT trigger the "Mortal Threat".

Second, even more likely are FSB run "Ukrainian terrorism" operations within Russia itself. With these "attacks" being used as the "Mortal Threat" trigger. These kinds of attacks are what was used to stir up the whole Chechen thing, as described by Litvinenko.

I saw today that a Russian exile, Ilya Ponomarev, was saying he has source saying this is exactly what will happen next, and that it will be done to allow for Putin to call for a national mobilization.

[Tom Mazanec]

Biden promises new Ukraine aid, warns Russia on chemical weapons I ABC7
3,082 viewsMar 24, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYg3WAvIa6I

[utahbob]

It looks like Russian oil will be in very short supply https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bm7cKB3Wczs

[Guest]

Poland's President Andrzej Duda: “If someone wants to attack us, he has to take into account that we will stand firm to defend our homeland. And I can assure you that Poland is large enough for us to bury all attackers in our soil"

[Guest]

It looks like Russian oil will be in very short supply https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bm7cKB3Wczs

The Washington Post reports the US and European allies agreed to redirecting liquefied natural gas shipments to Europe.

[Guest]

US and allies are discussing providing Ukraine with anti-ship missiles

[Guest]

Russian Ships burning in Berdyansk. Reports 1 destroyed and 2 severely damaged.

Any news on Valery Gerasimov, Sergei Shoigu or Viktor Zolotov? Are they dead too?

[thomasglee]

Excellent interview with Lara Logan.

https://www.bitchute.com/video/4hZb0zwWRnQv/