Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 17-Jul-2021 World View: WW I vs WW III
Navigator wrote:
Fri Jul 16, 2021 10:56 pm
> I don't disagree that nukes will eventually be used against
> cities. I just disagree with you on the timing.

> I don't see the upcoming war with China as an "end to civilization
> war". Which is what it would be if there were thermonuclear
> exchange vs metro areas.

> My opinion (and I respect that it is not yours) is that WW3 will
> be similar to WW1 in that it will end the "established order of
> things".

> I then believe there will be a brief period of relative
> peace. This would then be followed by the rise of dictator(s)
> along the lines of Hitler/Stalin/Mao. This person (or persons),
> the anti-Christ(s) if you will, will have no qualms about using
> thermonuclear weapons.

> The book I wrote is about how to get through the WW3 and postwar
> period.

> I have no issues with people getting geiger counters and iodine
> pills. Maybe they will help you. My personal belief is that in
> the event of a serious thermonuclear exchange, you would need aid
> of a biblical nature in order to survive.
I don't understand this analogy. You're using a WW I analogy to
conclude that China will hold back from using its principal weapon
(nuclear weapon). But what would be the analogous principal weapon
that was held back during WW I?

tim
Posts: 1063
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:33 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by tim »

John wrote:
Sat Jul 17, 2021 2:10 pm
** 17-Jul-2021 World View: WW I vs WW III
Navigator wrote:
Fri Jul 16, 2021 10:56 pm
> I don't disagree that nukes will eventually be used against
> cities. I just disagree with you on the timing.

> I don't see the upcoming war with China as an "end to civilization
> war". Which is what it would be if there were thermonuclear
> exchange vs metro areas.

> My opinion (and I respect that it is not yours) is that WW3 will
> be similar to WW1 in that it will end the "established order of
> things".

> I then believe there will be a brief period of relative
> peace. This would then be followed by the rise of dictator(s)
> along the lines of Hitler/Stalin/Mao. This person (or persons),
> the anti-Christ(s) if you will, will have no qualms about using
> thermonuclear weapons.

> The book I wrote is about how to get through the WW3 and postwar
> period.

> I have no issues with people getting geiger counters and iodine
> pills. Maybe they will help you. My personal belief is that in
> the event of a serious thermonuclear exchange, you would need aid
> of a biblical nature in order to survive.
I don't understand this analogy. You're using a WW I analogy to
conclude that China will hold back from using its principal weapon
(nuclear weapon). But what would be the analogous principal weapon
that was held back during WW I?
The very basics of generational theory being that WWI was not a crisis war for western countries is something that most people fail to understand.

They think the words "World War" in WWI means it was the same as WWII for western countries. This is the greatest argument I hear from people when showing the pattern of the 80 year cycle.

1776 + 80 = 1856

1861 beginning of U.S. Civil War

1865 + 80 = 1945

1941 WWII

1945 + 80 = 2025

? Sino-American War or WWIII
“Thou shalt not bow down thyself to them, nor serve them: for I the LORD thy God am a jealous God, visiting the iniquity of the fathers upon the children unto the third and fourth generation of them that hate me; - Exodus 20:5

DaKardii
Posts: 943
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

The Gateway Pundit is promoting a theory that COVID-19 originated at Fort Detrick... but it was smuggled out by a CCP spy who had infiltrated the base through Fauci's NIAID Integrated Research Facility.

Interesting way to reconcile the "China did it" and "America did it" theories.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/0 ... t-detrick/

Trevor
Posts: 1209
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Trevor »

Here's something you might find interesting: https://www.jenniferzengblog.com/home/2 ... l-strategy

I expect sooner or later, nuclear weapons will be used. I just don't expect them to be used at the onset of hostilities. More likely, they'll be launched whenever a nuclear party feels their back is against the wall. In a non-crisis era, they'd be more likely to negotiate than take such a step, but not now.

thinker
Posts: 56
Joined: Fri May 28, 2021 1:26 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by thinker »

update on Cuba, I read a small news blurb, I think it was on ABC but I can't remember. It said that a high level member of the Cuban governments security apparatus had resigned over the reaction to the protests by the government. The small blurb also said that there is a riff in the Cuban military between the older officers and the younger officers on the protests and how things should be handled, in my opinion this would go with generational theory as the older officers would be part of the generation that brought about the rise of Castro and the revolution and the younger officers would be from a generation that does not have the same loyalty to the communist government.
I also read another story that the Venezuelan government is currently fighting with armed gangs, in my opinion this would more than likely lead to them not being able to help the Cuban government, so again I think China or perhaps Russia become more likely to intervene if another government is going to try and help the Cuban government.
On South Africa my brother spoke with a friend we have their and he was not worried because the problems were localized. He is well armed though and is well prepared. I think the white South Africans and Indians are trying to stay out of the coming civil war but in the end they will band together along with some members of the black tribes. I heard part of a podcast from a white South African and he was talking about an interview with a 70 year old Zulu elder, this man has supposedly about 300k Zulu fighters under his control. He echoed some things I had heard from an Indian South African I met a few years before I went to South Africa and I also heard when I was in South Africa from multiple people from different races as well as I have seen in social media posts from South Africans. Basically what he echoed was that things were better under apartheid and white rule. I also read a quote from a Zulu king that said that blacks had ruined South Africa and that the country was better under white rule. This is leading me to believe that the Zulus will probably align themselves with the white South Africans and the Indians against the other tribes if both of those groups are not able to stay out of the war. I am interested in what you guys think on these subjects.

thinker
Posts: 56
Joined: Fri May 28, 2021 1:26 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by thinker »

On the nuclear weapons front I was watching a video on youtube about the sixth generation fighter plane the U.S. is working on. One thing that peeked my interest is that on the two videos that I saw one of the things they talked about was that supposedly as part of the weapons systems on this fighter it was going to have a laser canon or gun. The fighter is going to have a battery system to provide the electricity needed for the laser. I have read articles on the U.S. military working more and more on laser weapons and have also read articles on navy ships switching to natural gas powerplants in order to power not just the ships engines but also weapons systems like rail guns. This makes me think that perhaps they are also fitting the ships with laser based systems for defensive and offensive tasks. This could also be used against nuclear weapons. Again I would like to hear what you guys think.

Navigator
Posts: 901
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

John wrote:
Sat Jul 17, 2021 2:10 pm
I don't understand this analogy. You're using a WW I analogy to
conclude that China will hold back from using its principal weapon
(nuclear weapon). But what would be the analogous principal weapon
that was held back during WW I?
I am not saying that WW3 would be like WW1, other than the end effect will be the destruction of the established order.

WW 1 was the end of the true monarchies of Europe, the Russian Czars, the Hapsburg Emperor, and the German Emperor. These monarchies had near total power over their countries, and had existed for close to a 1000 years (Habsburg case). (OK, I know the German emperor was relatively new, but his German was arguably the successor to the Holy Roman Empire.) After WW 1 absolute monarchies were pretty much done in Europe.

Similarly, I believe WW3 will be the end of both the communist system (in China and some other places) and the Socialist democracies (where people have voted themselves a free lunch by extreme deficit spending). The coming war will bankrupt/destroy both systems. So, in this fashion, I think it will have a similar outcome to WW1. Postwar WW3 would also be similar to postwar WW1 with its massive political turmoil (Central Europe then, probably the whole world post WW3).

Also, the WW3 may well end like WW1 in that the leaders of most of the defeated countries were allowed sanctuary somewhere else. This could lead to them holding off using nukes, as they will want to be assured of sanctuary somewhere upon losing (ala the Kaiser living in Holland). If they use nukes, they would not be allowed to do this (my thoughts anyway).

As to the non-use of a major weapon, the example of that is actually from WW2. I go into this in the book, explaining how Hitler didn't use poison gas, even though the German gases (early nerve agents) were far superior to what the Allies had. This is similar to the theory of "mutually assured destruction" that has prevented nuke use since WW2.

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 18-Jul-2021 World View: Nuclear weapons
Navigator wrote:
Sun Jul 18, 2021 3:02 am
> As to the non-use of a major weapon, the example of that is
> actually from WW2. I go into this in the book, explaining how
> Hitler didn't use poison gas, even though the German gases (early
> nerve agents) were far superior to what the Allies had. This is
> similar to the theory of "mutually assured destruction" that has
> prevented nuke use since WW2.
Trevor wrote:
Sat Jul 17, 2021 11:10 pm
> Here's something you might find interesting:
> https://www.jenniferzengblog.com/home/2 ... l-strategy

> I expect sooner or later, nuclear weapons will be used. I just
> don't expect them to be used at the onset of hostilities. More
> likely, they'll be launched whenever a nuclear party feels their
> back is against the wall. In a non-crisis era, they'd be more
> likely to negotiate than take such a step, but not now.
As I've said many times in the past, it's clear how Neville
Chamberlain and the British were completely fooled by Hitler. The
brain simply cannot contemplate what's happening even if it's obvious.

Jennifer Zeng's article explains why China MUST use nuclear weapons at
the beginning of the war. In conventional warfare, Taiwan+Japan could
defeat the Chinese. The Chinese know this, and the Japanese know
this. That's why the Chinese are developing the "Japan Exception
Theory," which means that Japan is the exception to the "promise" that
China will not be the first to use nuclear weapons. Japan does not
currently have nuclear weapons, so there will be no danger of nuclear
retaliation from Japan.

So the Chinese strategy would be a quick victory in Taiwan combined
with a nuclear victory over Japan, to be executed before the United
States could respond, resulting in a new reality, with Taiwan part of
China, and Japan colonized/controlled by China.

This is entirely delusional, but being delusional has never stopped
the Chinese Communists till now.

---

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019
Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwe ... 732738637/

Image

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

thinker wrote:
Sun Jul 18, 2021 2:14 am
update on Cuba, I read a small news blurb, I think it was on ABC but I can't remember. It said that a high level member of the Cuban governments security apparatus had resigned over the reaction to the protests by the government. The small blurb also said that there is a riff in the Cuban military between the older officers and the younger officers on the protests and how things should be handled, in my opinion this would go with generational theory as the older officers would be part of the generation that brought about the rise of Castro and the revolution and the younger officers would be from a generation that does not have the same loyalty to the communist government.
I also read another story that the Venezuelan government is currently fighting with armed gangs, in my opinion this would more than likely lead to them not being able to help the Cuban government, so again I think China or perhaps Russia become more likely to intervene if another government is going to try and help the Cuban government.
On South Africa my brother spoke with a friend we have their and he was not worried because the problems were localized. He is well armed though and is well prepared. I think the white South Africans and Indians are trying to stay out of the coming civil war but in the end they will band together along with some members of the black tribes. I heard part of a podcast from a white South African and he was talking about an interview with a 70 year old Zulu elder, this man has supposedly about 300k Zulu fighters under his control. He echoed some things I had heard from an Indian South African I met a few years before I went to South Africa and I also heard when I was in South Africa from multiple people from different races as well as I have seen in social media posts from South Africans. Basically what he echoed was that things were better under apartheid and white rule. I also read a quote from a Zulu king that said that blacks had ruined South Africa and that the country was better under white rule. This is leading me to believe that the Zulus will probably align themselves with the white South Africans and the Indians against the other tribes if both of those groups are not able to stay out of the war. I am interested in what you guys think on these subjects.
Jacob Zuma, a Zulu, wanted to "break white capital" in South Africa by destroying all of their businesses. He also, from i can tell, doesn't get along with the Zulu King , whose name is Goodwill. Yes, the blacks all hate each other. Yes, Whites and Indians will unite.

IN Zimbabwe the older generation mostly want the white government back. The last PM of Rhodesia, Ian Smith, stayed in Zimbabwe and black Africans would queue up to shake his hand whenever he went out in public. Mugabe was ALWAYS surrounded by a large security detail, but iam Smilth lived and walked around Zimbabwe without one. Even local government officials usually left him alone. And Iam Smith could easily have been elected PM in a free and fair election.

SA is the next Bosnia; unless America is the next one first.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

China needs land bridges to attack Japan: either sweep through Korea and then land troops in Fukoka or take Taiwan and start island hopping north.

China's military is substandard. Everything about it is. The officer corps is highly politicized and deeply corrupt. The PLA runs factories and exports goods. The original intent was to build their own supply chains, but instead they use the manufacting ability to produce plastic junk for Bed, Bath, and Beyond.

China will use nukes quickly because they know there army is 3rd rate. Also, the ethnic composition of the army WILL cause problems. China is a leaky boat.

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