I remember John saying a couple years ago that he believed Russia's invasion of Ukraine would ultimately trigger a wider war. In the last few days, we've taken a big step closer to that.
For all intents and purposes, we've cut them off from further aid. Trump wanted the aid bill killed, so it was killed right on the cusp of a deal being made. The House Speaker faces a lot of pressure from both sides to bring it to a vote, but so far, he's remained adamant. Even if it's eventually passed, that's months in which Russia was allowed to gain strength.
Russia still hasn't managed any huge breakthroughs, but despite paying a massive price in blood, they possess the initiative. The prospect of the U.S. leaving the rest of NATO to its fate seems to have prompted them to action. Macron's speaking of sending French troops to Ukraine, albeit in a non-combat role. Poland, Lithuania, and Finland are mentioning the possibility as well.
https://www.businessinsider.com/finish- ... table-2024
Yes, we've had special forces in Ukraine for some time, mostly in a training capacity. While they wouldn't technically be on the front lines, similar to Soviet and Chinese troops in North Vietnam, that's still a major step toward the wider conflict John mentioned.
Public opinion's swung all over the place. When war broke out, most thought it would be like a Russian Desert Storm. When Ukraine held firm and repelled them from Kiev and Kharkiv, they switched to believing Putin would be forced out, and after the 2022 counteroffensive, convinced Russian lines would soon collapse. Instead, Putin has several hundred thousand troops in occupied territory and moved to a wartime footing, something the EU has only made tentative steps toward doing.
If Russia makes to take significant ground in a short period similar to 2022, it might just spook the EU enough to send troops of its own. May you live in interesting times, indeed.