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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
Posted: Tue Jul 27, 2021 3:07 pm
by Trevor
If anything so many DF-41s would be worse. According to a bit of research I've done, they can carry as many as 10-12 MIRVs, not three. Assuming they're all carrying 10 warheads, you're talking close to 2,600 warheads of around 150 kilotons. Assuming an even split between India, Japan, Russia, and the United States, that would be 650 each. Not all would get through, but enough would to cause mass devastation.
Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
Posted: Tue Jul 27, 2021 3:26 pm
by John
** 27-Jul-2021 World View: Nuclear warheads
Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 3:07 pm
> If anything so many DF-41s would be worse. According to a bit of
> research I've done, they can carry as many as 10-12 MIRVs, not
> three. Assuming they're all carrying 10 warheads, you're talking
> close to 2,600 warheads of around 150 kilotons. Assuming an even
> split between India, Japan, Russia, and the United States, that
> would be 650 each. Not all would get through, but enough would to
> cause mass devastation.
Well, you're right to raise that point. I was just quoting the
figures in the article by Federation of American Scientists. But
everyone is so politicized these days, including "scientists," so
maybe FAS wants to underplay the China threat. I don't know.
Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
Posted: Tue Jul 27, 2021 4:34 pm
by Xeraphim1
Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 3:07 pm
If anything so many DF-41s would be worse. According to a bit of research I've done, they can carry as many as 10-12 MIRVs, not three. Assuming they're all carrying 10 warheads, you're talking close to 2,600 warheads of around 150 kilotons. Assuming an even split between India, Japan, Russia, and the United States, that would be 650 each. Not all would get through, but enough would to cause mass devastation.
It does bring up the issue of whether New Start treaty should be continued. If China is adding a lot more warheads, it would be foolish for Russia and the US to remain in it. Similar to why the ABM and INF treaty were abrogated. Of course the Biden administration is ingested with the type who believes those treaties are meaningful in and of themselves so I don't expect any immediate change.
Funnily, it's Russia that would suffer most. Nuclear weapons and delivery systems are expensive to build and maintain and Russia would have to spend a huge chuck of change to keep up with Chinese/US increases. And Russia would do so, of course, because Putin's vanity would not let do otherwise.
Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
Posted: Tue Jul 27, 2021 7:20 pm
by Cool Breeze
John wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 10:50 am
The Chinese public strongly supports the government to safeguard national dignity in its ties with the US and firmly push
back the various provocations from the US.
Great post again John. I wonder how accurate this actually is. I think the answer sadly is that it doesn't even matter.
Also, I wonder what the perceived "provocations" are. Most of our people have been bought off and the Chinese do it, and know it, only an outsider they helped dethrone was a small thorn in their side for a while.
Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
Posted: Wed Jul 28, 2021 5:50 am
by Tom Mazanec
America is following the steps of all collapsing empires in world history:
https://scheerpost.com/2021/07/26/hedge ... e-machine/
Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
Posted: Thu Jul 29, 2021 6:04 am
by thinker
Taiwan and Japan have both been getting ready as well as Australia. If my memory serves me right I believe Australia made a purchase of military hardware from us of 8 billion dollars about three years ago. They followed that up with another purchase of more than 5 hundred million dollars from I think another country.
One of my work buddies served in the Navy during the Obama years and knows a lot about the weapons systems on the ships, I talk to him about war with China and other topics. He is confident with the ability of the on board weapons systems to be able to protect our ships from an attack. Keep in mind that since he left the navy there have probably been improvements to the weapons systems. I believe we have a clear technological advantage over the Chinese, however I believe that our woke commanding officers are a huge liability.
Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
Posted: Thu Jul 29, 2021 2:36 pm
by utahbob
Food for thought. I am not sure if this an intentional leak or somebody violated OPSEC, but it is interesting.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3861097
Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
Posted: Thu Jul 29, 2021 2:45 pm
by John
** 29-Jul-2021 World View: Invading Taiwan
This is a very old article. The same strategy was described recently
in Jennifer Zeng's blog that you referenced a couple of weeks ago.
-- The CCP’s 3 New Warships & Their Messages to the World, Will China
Go Back to Mao’s Time?
https://www.jenniferzengblog.com/home/2 ... -maos-time
(JenniferZeng, 7-May-2021)
-- “Nuke and Eliminate Japan”: The CCP’s Threat and Its Long Term Goal
& Global Strategy
https://www.jenniferzengblog.com/home/2 ... l-strategy
(JenniferZeng, 15-Jul-2021)
Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
Posted: Thu Jul 29, 2021 3:16 pm
by Cool Breeze
thinker wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 6:04 am
Taiwan and Japan have both been getting ready as well as Australia. If my memory serves me right I believe Australia made a purchase of military hardware from us of 8 billion dollars about three years ago. They followed that up with another purchase of more than 5 hundred million dollars from I think another country.
One of my work buddies served in the Navy during the Obama years and knows a lot about the weapons systems on the ships, I talk to him about war with China and other topics. He is confident with the ability of the on board weapons systems to be able to protect our ships from an attack. Keep in mind that since he left the navy there have probably been improvements to the weapons systems. I believe we have a clear technological advantage over the Chinese, however I believe that our woke commanding officers are a huge liability.
Nice insights, thanks.
Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
Posted: Thu Jul 29, 2021 3:17 pm
by Cool Breeze
Perhaps decline is a better word to use than collapse, since the latter is so commonly predicted and the end result is goose eggs on the scoreboard.