While things have changed significantly over the last two years, and the likely hood that China could launch a secret, surprise, nuclear strategic attack on the United States, as opposed to one the United States knew about before most the Chinese Generals did, is now much higher. Snowden exposed sources and methods and China is busy fixing it so those sources no longer exist, and the methods will no longer work.John wrote:
It was almost ten years ago that I said that in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan and the Sunni Arab countries would be the "axis" fighting against the "allies," the West, India, Russia, Iran and Israel.
Ten years ago, the thought that we might be allied with Iran seemed fantastical, and indeed I was criticized for suggesting it. But few people would consider it fantastical today. Iran and West are moving closer together, while Saudi Arabia is moving away from the Wet.
At the same time, it's probably a good thing that Japan, Philippines and others are arming themselves, as we'll need all the help we can get confronting China's plans for full-scale war.
China is continuing to arm itself rapidly, preparing to launch a pre-emptive missile attack at America's cities, military installations, and aircraft carriers.
Only the timing is unknown, but now thanks to the Edward Snowden's disclosures to the Chinese and Russians, America may be almost completely defenseless against such an attack, and China may decide to take advantage in 2014.
Tensions are sky-high between China and Japan, China and Philippines, and China an Vietnam, and it would not take much for a minor military confrontation to occur, and that could spiral into a much bigger military confrontation.
I still must point out the probability of China even coming out in a tie in such a war, let alone winning it, still remain at exactly zero.
Both the U.S. and Russia, each independently, have enough large strategic nuclear weapons to ride out the best the Chinese could deliver, and then utterly devastate the entire country of China. Return China to the stone age. After the disease and starvation took their toll, China would no longer be the most populous country on earth, nor would it have a large industrial economy, and instead it would be a third world country with a subsistence economy, mired in abject poverty and disease.
Evan if Obama tries his best to unilaterally disarm the United States, that status quo will not change for many years.
I also disagree that China would enter into a conflict over some islands without having a plan to win a larger war, and come out ahead, even if they did not fully succeed militarily.
The idea that regional war would start accidentally, is about as probable as World War II starting when Polish troops miscalculated and invaded Germany and what happened next, the occupation of Poland by Germany, was just an escalation that resulted from a miscalculation.
China knows how to play chess, and if they start a regional war, however it ends, they will plan on coming out ahead.
I personally believe the Chinese would use nuclear weapons, as tactical weapons, early and often, in such a regional conflict.
But I do not believe China will wage a strategic nuclear war against the United States in any of the years Obama has left in office. China can only lose such a war. Regardless of how much damage they might inflict on the United States.
A regional war against Japan, planned and executed by China with exit ramps along the way that provide victories for China even if they agree to stop the war at the early stages, is another story.
I can already see China creating the conditions for such a regional war to start in 2014 ( this year ) or any time they want it to.