Russia - Did It Invade Ukraine - Or - Did it NOT ???

[Reality Check]

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I could be wrong (this is not a Generational Dynamics prediction), but my personal opinion is that eastern Ukraine is nowhere near war, and Russia is nowhere near an invasion. In other words, Putin is bluffing, in order to keep the pro-Russian activists happy, and to gain maximum leverage with the Kiev government and with the West. There may be isolated incidents of violence, and it's possible that things will get worse as the May 25 elections approach, but for the time being, I expect the circus to continue as it is.

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e140426
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The United States, Western Europe and independent third parties believe that Russian armed forced have, over a period of two months, invaded, and are still invading and occupying, both the Crimean area of Ukraine and portions of Eastern Ukraine. The United States and the Kiev government has been declaring that for weeks.

Russia denied that any Russian invasion is, or was. taking place in either place.

The Kiev government is currently actively attempting to kill, capture, and/or drive out Russian armed forces from eastern Ukraine, using the portions of the Ukrainian military ( including newly formed Ukrainian speaking national guard units), and the portions of the Ukrainian police forces that will execute Kiev's orders to attack.

How we can get from there to "Russia is nowhere near an invasion", is hard to understand.
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[John]

When I talk about an "invasion," I mean an actual invasion.

I think you already knew that.

[Reality Check]

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Both semantically and Geo-Politically your response misses the point.

Semantically: a real invasion ( or actual invasion if you will ) would be one where military forces cross a well recognized international border, into another sovereign country and use that military force to impose their political will on another country through military force. That is what happened in Crimea and that is still what is happening in eastern Crimea as we type. The Crimean invasion was a military success for the invaders, the ongoing eastern Ukrainian invasion is being opposed, by what appears at this moment, to be another determined military force. Some invaders achieve their political objectives, some fail. There is a lot of truth to the truism war is nothing but a continuation of politics by other means. So I would ask in what way was the Crimean invasion and the current eastern Ukraine invasion, not an "actual invasion"?

Geo-Politically the argument comes down even stronger on the side of invasion. Russia has been cultivating a reputation, in the former Soviet Union Countries, that any faction within that country, that sides with Russia in a military uprising, can not lose. In that sense, if the Kiev government kills, captures, or drives into exile the separatists, by using Ukrainian military force, and also drives out the "military special forces from Russia" ( they are what they are, even if they are former Russian military who are now independent contractors hired by the Russian government, they are still military special forces from Russia ), then regardless of what you want to call it, current and potential future military allies in other former Soviet countries will view it as a failed Russian invasion.

I make these two points so that when we consider how likely Russia is to back down, and leave their allies within Ukraine twisting in the wind, we do not make the mistake of believing a retreat by Russia at this point would NOT be viewed as a failed Russian invasion by the people outside Russia, that Russia cares about most.

It is my personal opinion, that the Russian leadership does not view a retreat in Ukraine as just canceling a circus road show.
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