Mexico

[jwfid]

John,

If you feel that my conclusions are wrong, then what do you believe
are the correct conclusions?

I really don't know what the correct conclusions are. I'll try to do some more research and let you know. As I was writing last night, I was thinking that most of the urban population think of themselves as Mexicans (but I can't speak for the them). My wife thinks that way too (she's not in a position to think for them either).

I do know that there is a division between the industrialized more affluent north and the agricultural poorer south as noted in the last presidential election. I'm not sure where the more urban southern central plateau (Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Puebla) would be in that mix though.

One other thought I was just having was that this could be a little like Colombia in the eighties and nineties (without the communist insurgency) over the next few years. We'll see.

Sorry I don't have anything more concrete. I wish I had more knowledge and experience at global analysis, but I'm just a simple guy who is really interested in how all of this will turn out. I will do the research though, and I do find it a lot of fun to speculate!

Thanks,

Joe
I

[Chim Richalds]

John,

I agree with your conclusions that Mexico is fracturing along ethnic lines, but I differ in your interpretation of the Mestizos.

In situations like this, whenever there's ethnic intermarrying, the
family almost always still retains loyalty to one side or the other,
usually the mother's side.

I think this is true, perhaps in the US and other countries where ethnic intermarrying hasn't been going on for centuries, but I don't feel like this applies to Mexico. I don't have any personal experience with Mexico, but from what I have read the Mestizos have their own unique identity in Latin America that keeps them a distinct group from other indigenous or European groups (like the Coloreds in South Africa). Google the term "Mestizaje" and you will find all types of pages that explore Mexican racial identity. It seems that after the last Mexican revolution, in the early 1900's, the new government promoted the theme of "Mestizaje," or mixed heritage, to promote a unified Mexican identity. This way, people would stop thinking of themselves as "Indian" or "Spanish" and start thinking of everyone as Mexican, where all Mexicans are mixed, or Mestizo. In practice though, this came to mean that any non-white person who spoke Spanish was Mestizo. Today, the descendants of Europeans self identify as whites, and the only people counted as indigenous are those who speak a language other than Spanish. So if you are non-white and speak exclusively Spanish, and you don't self-identify as one of the indigenous groups, you are a Mestizo.

[jwfid]

John,

If you feel that my conclusions are wrong, then what do you believe
are the correct conclusions?

I have had a chance to look into Mexico's problems and history some more and I really think that your ideas about the Aztec, Mayan, and European relationships with the cartels are wrong. I think what we are dealing with are just very greedy and vicious groups of people with no ethnic affiliations.

The Stratfor report was really interesting. In it, the authors state that a failure of the Mexican state is possible. The Mexican government could actually become a functioning arm of the cartels themselves.

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/mexico_road_failed_state

Joe

[John]

Dear Joe,

> I have had a chance to look into Mexico's problems and history
> some more and I really think that your ideas about the Aztec,
> Mayan, and European relationships with the cartels are wrong. I
> think what we are dealing with are just very greedy and vicious
> groups of people with no ethnic affiliations.

> The Stratfor report was really interesting. In it, the authors
> state that a failure of the Mexican state is possible. The Mexican
> government could actually become a functioning arm of the cartels
> themselves.

> http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/mexico_road_failed_state

I just don't believe that these "vicious groups of people" simply
share a love of money and have no ethnic affiliations, especially
deep in a crisis era. It simply doesn't make sense.

The Stratfor report actually supports my point in referring to the
Prohibition gunfights in Chicago:

First, the Chicago gunfights were localized to Chicago. What's
remarkable about the Mexico cartels is that they're apparently spread
around the nation. That simply couldn't happen in a crisis era with
no ethnic fault line divisions.

Second, even the Chicago gunfights had an ethnic connection -- Al
Capone and his henchmen were all Italian.

Sincerely,

John

[John]

Dear Chim,

> I agree with your conclusions that Mexico is fracturing along
> ethnic lines, but I differ in your interpretation of the
> Mestizos. ...

> I don't have any personal experience with Mexico, but from what I
> have read the Mestizos have their own unique identity in Latin
> America that keeps them a distinct group from other indigenous or
> European groups (like the Coloreds in South Africa). Google the
> term "Mestizaje" and you will find all types of pages that explore
> Mexican racial identity. It seems that after the last Mexican
> revolution, in the early 1900's, the new government promoted the
> theme of "Mestizaje," or mixed heritage, to promote a unified
> Mexican identity. This way, people would stop thinking of
> themselves as "Indian" or "Spanish" and start thinking of everyone
> as Mexican, where all Mexicans are mixed, or Mestizo. In practice
> though, this came to mean that any non-white person who spoke
> Spanish was Mestizo. Today, the descendants of Europeans self
> identify as whites, and the only people counted as indigenous are
> those who speak a language other than Spanish. So if you are
> non-white and speak exclusively Spanish, and you don't
> self-identify as one of the indigenous groups, you are a Mestizo.

I took your advice and googled the word "Mestizaje", and what I read
does seem to support what you're saying.

I found the following two pages as being extremely interesting. This
is the first time that I've come across a really detailed description
of the history of ethnic differences in Mexico. There's a wealth of
valuable information, even if the essays are somewhat political in
nature.

Mestizaje and Indigenous Identities
http://anthropology.ac.uk/Era_Resources ... izaje.html

Ranchero Culture
http://anthropology.ac.uk/Era_Resources ... lture.html

Sincerely,

John

[estrar]

I am going to try to explain it from a different perspective, Mexican government is not collapsing, to the contrary, the Mexican society is retaking the government, democracy is working in Mexico. The new president is simple doing what the new Mexican society is demanding less corruption and less crime. Drug cartels had a substantial part of the Mexican government working for them, especially at the local level.

The amazing power that Mexican cartels obtained in the last 15 years have a direct correlation with the last century biggest wave of immigration south-North. The immigration wave also meant that more people with ties in both sides of the border became drug dealers. No wonder cocaine price in USA and Europe decline for the most part of the nineties. Europe also had a wave of south north immigration.

In the same span of time Mexico became the third largest consumer of cocaine of the world. Local and some federal public officials were or are working for the cartels. Now, the Mexican president is trying to retake the government by ending corruption, a few months ago the Mexican FBI counterpart was charge with receiving $750k per Month from one of the cartels.

Also, another big factor is that US is taking better control of the border severing the drug corridors.

All these means less business for drug cartels and the response is a desperate fight between each other for the few open corridors from Mexico to USA. At the same time the price of cocaine in US is up almost 100% in the last year.

If the Mexican society is successful in retaking the government, Prices of drugs in US will skyrocket and consumption will drop significantly. http://1100100d.com/content/credit-bubb ... mmigration

[cody]

I will give my opinions which are just guesses. Mexico is headed for a crises type war. I will list some of the personal observations I have made. In Mexico there is a strong anti American sentiment ie hatred especially if that American is white. This has been building for the last 30 years and is progressively getting stronger. If that American is of Mexican decent you can subtract the hatred but still have the negative sentiment.

I am going to switch to a different time WWII, a significant portion of the US population was of German decent yet America had no problem waging a genocidal war against Germany. Remember the gassing of Jews was not even known until the war was over so that had nothing to do with our motivation to wage that war. My point is just because there are lots of Mexican Americans in America it will not be a deterrent for a genocidal war with Mexico.

I will though out some possibilities I have thought of. If the world sinks into a deep recession this will be bad for Mexico. I think this is already happening. A more protectionist US will not help ether. That is the intentions of Obama, it is unknown if it will become reality. When the economic situation gets bad enough all kinds of things are possible.

One possibility is Mexico's government collapses in disarray and a new grass roots organization forms in its place, America will see it as some kind of narco facist state, who knows what it will be called. In Germany the Nazi brand of fascism was formed in the 1930's it was something new. They legalize all drugs in Mexico but make drug use by non Mexican nationals punishment something extreme like the death by firing squad. They also make exportation illegal but only enforce it on non Mexican nationals mostly. What ever they do it will be a radical departure. All this will divide American and Mexico on many lines. The rifts will grow and hatreds would accelerate. This is just a guess as to what may happen.

There are many different existing drug cartels and are too complicated for me to understand. They seem to be quite violent at least that is what people tell me in TJ. The Nazis in Germany were quite violent before they came to power.

There is a growing tension between Mexico and the US and Mexico's government seem to be loosing control of the country this is happening now. Hopefully I am totally wrong and none of this happens.