Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Saudis Threaten to Go Nuclear

With the Iranians reportedly on the verge of obtaining nuclear weapons, the article indicates that the Saudis would quickly “go nuclear” themselves if Iran gets the bomb. Indeed, the Saudis could “go nuclear” very quickly as it is widely believed that the Pakistanis have already allocated a certain number of the nuclear warheads in their inventory to Saudi Arabia due to past Saudi financing for Pakistan’s nuclear program. Past posts to this blog have also reported that likelihood.

If the Iranians get nukes, the Saudis will have no choice but to “take delivery” on any Saudi nukes currently held by Pakistan’s military. If both Iran and Saudi Arabia get nukes, Turkey and Egypt will have no choice but to obtain them as well. A global proliferation of nuclear-armed nations is likely in the offing if the USA, Israel and other nations do not stop Iran’s nuclear program. For example, if nuclear weapons proliferate in the Mideast, why should Japan, South Korea and Taiwan not opt to obtain a sizeable stock of nuclear warheads to deter a Chinese attack?

As you can see, the Iranian nuclear program is not only an existential threat to the Israelis, but a tripwire to a world where many nations suddenly opt to become nuclear powers as well. Perhaps this explains why the USA and Israel seem to be running out of time to launch a military strike against Iran’s nuclear program. You can be sure Israel does not want a series of neighboring Islamic nations “going nuclear,” and the powers that be that run the USA and the western world do not want to have the number of nuclear-armed nations double or triple rather quickly. While their respective motives differ, both the USA and the Israelis are running out of time to stop Iran’s program.

One last word about the Saudis. The article reports the Saudis will quickly get nukes if Iran gets them. Perhaps the Saudis are simply preparing the world for an inevitable announcement about Saudi nukes if the time comes, and that allows for the possibility that they already have obtained their allocated nukes from the Pakistanis. Nuclear warheads that could be delivered by warplanes would be the ideal product for Saudi Arabia to obtain from Pakistan.

http://www.news.com.au/world/saudi-arab ... z1m0aWKfRl

I would say to let Israel do it if they believe Iran is on the verge of a bomb. Nothing released to the public has yet put that date for an actual bomb closer than at least 2 years out, and likely more.

http://www.iranwatch.org/ourpubs/articl ... table.html

Reading that carefully, if Iran goes all out for bomb material production, throws out all inspectors, denies all cooperation and hides everything so well that they can't be attacked, then the earliest they can get nuclear material for one bomb prepared would be early April of 2013. Building a bomb is not just a matter of bolting a few items together, they would have tests to perform and casings to cast and line with explosives (making sure the lining is cavitation free) and so forth. You have to have the proper excitation mix to produce slow neutrons nearby (increase probability of an explosion vs a PFFT) and then anyone with even a single working neuron is going to demand tests to prove this local engineering solution worked. It would be just barely possible they could manage a successful test shot by Thanksgiving of 2013, but more likely sometime in 2014, if that. Keep in mind they want a BOMB not a "device". If all you want is to prove you can make it go boom, you can put together a house sized nuclear explosive using uranium in a much shorter time, within a couple of months of acquiring the explosive level of enriched material. This is a proof of principle, but not a "bomb". Bombs are portable. Building such an explosive in someone else's country and touching it off there might be possible, but is more of a terrorist tactic than a wartime strategy.

Just MHO, I think they want to work to the point where they COULD make a bomb in four to six months, and their neighbors know they have this capability. This means nobody attacks unless they are dead certain they can take out all stockpiles and work areas in that time, AND can prevent the material from being removed by terrorists. And that would give Iran a great deal of freedom to do as they please with no consequences.

I would add Iraq to that list as well. They fought a brutal war with Iran in the 1980's, and they haven't forgotten how much they suffered in it. If Saddam was still around, they'd be in a nuclear arms race. Saudi Arabia is deep into a crisis era, or even a Fifth Turning at this point, so if they start building nuclear weapons, we're in even more trouble.

Should the USA wait until it is sure that Iran has the bomb?It would be too late to do anything at that point .The usa is not doing anything about North Korea as it already has a nuclear bomb and we are afraid to provoke them.Do we want to be in the same position with fanatical Iran?

professor wrote:Saudis Threaten to Go Nuclear

Saudi Arabia, a Sunni Muslim state, has money and oil.

Pakistan, also a Sunni Muslim state, has 100s of nukes and a very large, professional, standing army. Pakistan lacks the kind of wealth Saudi Arabia has.

It is has been reported that Saudi Arabia has been negotiating with Pakistan to deploy both nukes and a Pakistani army division in Saudi Arabia to deter aggression by Shia Iran.