Russia

[Golden Fox]

As readers are no doubt aware, Russia has recently invaded two small separatist regions in Georgia and recognized the rebels as an independent government. What does the future hold? Will Russia recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states, rule them through puppet dictators or annex them altogether? Will it even stop there or will Russia attempt to either install a pupet regime in Georgia or annex it into a new Russian empire? Will Russian aggression be felt in other former Soviet states in the next few years and what does it mean for the upcoming crisis?

[malleni]

I am not sure that "Russia has recently invaded two small separatist regions in Georgia".

Perhaps you are not informed or do not want to be informed.

These "two small separatist regions in Georgia" - are:
1. "regions" populated with two different nations than Georgians. (of course with another languages etc too)
2. "regions" which had even in the time of the SSSR - autonomy (S.Osetia) and republic in the Georgia ("region" Abhazia)
3. the borderlines of Georgia with those 2 "regions" were made by Stalin. (Pretty democratically, of course)
4. the "regions" had already two wars after SSSR collapse, and Georgia loose these wars. Then the peace keeping force was deployed with Russian, Osetian AND Georgian soldiers - together.
5. USA administration militarized Georgia (without "regions") after these wars with highest rate known in the last 2 decades. Thouseands of USA military "experts" worked in the Georgia to prepare this military for "blitz Krig" (almost similar as in Croatia 1995)
6. And finally, Russia DID NOT "recently invaded two small separatist regions in Georgia". It is clear even from the USA intelligence informations given those days. Converse the main stream media and obviously your information - Georgian military invaded the one small separatist region. In this region were deployed about 1500 Russian soldiers - as peace keeping force. To make picture more clear for you EVEN Georgian AND Osetian soldiers were in this peace keeping force until Georgians did not simply - changed the side.

Sorry for my bad English, but I hope that you get the picture.
I am sure that you can find on the net the see of more reliable informations about this international event without to "check" main stream "media" (propaganda).

[John]

A question from a web site reader:

> Check this one out:

> http://www.gulfnews.com/opinion/columns ... 47267.html

> It's about the Russian end of the meltdown - they are ahead of us
> on this one and it scares me to think about where this will lead.
> I don't think the Russian bear is going to take this lying down.
> The only thing is who will its anger be directed against?

Here's an excerpt from the article you're quoting:

> Today, the whole world is being hit by a tremendous financial
> crisis, but Russia is facing a perfect storm. The Russian stock
> market is in free fall, plummeting by 60 per cent since May 19, a
> loss of $900 billion. And the plunge is accelerating. As a result,
> Russia's economic growth is likely to fall sharply and
> suddenly.

It's surprising that Russia could be in any financial trouble at all,
given their enormous oil revenue, even at current prices of around
$100 per barrel, down from almost $150 per barrel. But recall that
only a few years ago, it was around $30 per barrel, so Russia should
be rolling in money.

But Russia is still in a "post-unraveling," pre-regeneracy era, and,
just like America's leaders, Russia's leaders have no idea of the
dangers of a worldwide financial crisis, and believe it can never
happen.

Thus, the Russians have been just as profligate and sloppy in their
use of money as Americans, though in a different way. Putin in
particular has been contemptuous of private investment in Russia's
oil firms, as I recently summarized in an article on Georgia.

** Russia continues to tighten its grip on a humiliated Georgia
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 14#e080814

During 2004, I followed the situation with Yukos very closely (see
links in the above article). At the beginning of the year, I was
asking, "What is Putin up to?" By the end of the year, it was
apparent that Putin's intention all along was to nationalize Yukos in
the most brutal possible way, and still retain personal deniability.

This is nature of Russia's financial unraveling. Led by Putin, the
Kremlin has adopted the "norm" of the Soviet Communist days: That
private property is improper, that everything belongs to the
Communist state, and therefore the Communist state has the right to
take anything it wants from anyone (and, incidentally, jail or kill
anyone who gets in the way).

Just as America's politicians, pundits and executives ignored the
laws of the universe by manufacturing phony structured securities
that turned out to be worthless, Russia's officials ignored the laws
of the universe by thinking that they could nationalize everything.

Abraham Lincoln said it best: You can fool some of the people all of
the time, and you can fool all of the people some of the time, but
you can't fool all of the people all of the time.

Structured securities and nationalization are two attempts to fool
all of the people all of the time. In Russia's case, the private
investors finally figured it out, and now Russia's economy is in
possibly more trouble than the American economy.

John

[Matt1989]

Russia's financial collapse seems 4T, yet their response to Georgia's invasion was restrained. We don't have Justin '77 on TFT anymore, but my guess is that the lives of Russians we're relatively unchanged -- and there was no need to fight a "hot" war like Israel in '06.

Plus, it didn't help that the U.S. and it's "friends" painted the Russians as the aggressor.

[Matt1989]

John,

Justin returned briefly to T4T, and I asked him about the Russian reaction to the financial crisis.

http://fourthturning.com/forum/showthre ... post249737

[John]

I found it very frustrating to try to discuss something with Justin
because he has some sort of mental block about Putin.

When I said that the cyberattack on Estonia was so large that it
looked like it could only be perpetrated by a large government
agency, and that would undoubtedly be Putin's Russia, he rejected
that idea as impossible.

When I discussed the polonium poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko,
saying that it appeared to be done by Putin's KGB, Justin got all
indignant, said that I was being "suckered" by the media, and he
pointed me to some articles that purported to show that anyone could
have bought some polonium for $69.

I dug into his articles, and found that in order to buy enough
polonium to actually kill someone, it would cost around $2.2 million,
and that it would probably have to be done by a government agency
involved in nuclear technology. He gave a sarcastic response and
never actually gave an answer.

That was the time when it appeared that there was a "cult of
personality" growing around Putin, and Justin appeared to be part of
that cult. I wrote an article about it.

** Vladimir Putin's party wins Russian Parliamentary election by a landslide
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 04#e071204

Justin continues to argue that the 90s were a Crisis era (4th
turning) for Russia, but he can never produce a regeneracy event or a
crisis climax. There's no question that the 90s were a very
uncomfortable time for the Russians, but no way was it a fourth
turning crisis.

Putin is a hero to the Russians because he stood up to the Americans,
and he improved the Russian economy in the last few years. However,
the boost to the economy was possible because of astronomical oil
prices. Now that oil prices have been crashing, the Russian economy
is headed for big trouble, and presumably Putin is as well.

However, Putin still has no trouble raising nationalistic fervor
among the Russians, as we can see today with Medvedev's announcement
of Russian missiles to be installed in Europe near Poland. I have
little doubt that this announcement will be met with excitement and
approval by Justin and other Russians, even as Russia heads for a
REAL fourth turning crisis.

Sincerely,

John

[Matt1989]

I found it very frustrating to try to discuss something with Justin
because he has some sort of mental block about Putin.

Justin is an anarchist. I only vaguely remember the thread, but I would be surprised to see him blindly defending an authoritarian like Putin. That would be a huge mental block

Justin continues to argue that the 90s were a Crisis era (4th
turning) for Russia, but he can never produce a regeneracy event or a
crisis climax. There's no question that the 90s were a very
uncomfortable time for the Russians, but no way was it a fourth
turning crisis.

I lean (I'm by no means convinced however) toward your position, and would posit that the confusion is due to the fact Russia is no longer in a fourth turning, but in a fifth. And a 5th turning is just as apt to look like a 1st turning than a 4th due to generational alignment.

Anyway, I know he believes the ruble default to be the climax -- and I guess the fall of the USSR as the regeneracy. A proper crisis needs to have shock, fear, unification, and a climax. There is no reason why the climax cannot be economic, but I imagine it would be an extremely rare scenario.

[John]

Dear Matt,

> Justin is an anarchist. I only vaguely remember the thread, but I
> would be surprised to see him blindly defending an
> authoritarian like Putin. That would be a huge mental block

Justin puts on a big show about being an anarchist and calling Putin a
criminal, but it's obvious that he adores Putin -- just as the vast
majority of Russians do.

Sincerely,

John

[Witchiepoo]

My two cents ...

I know it's really none of my business, but Justin is more of a skeptic than a cultist.

[malleni]

"... Thank goodness, they might be thinking at the US State Department and the British Foreign Office, for the financial crisis. Were it not for the ever-blacker news about the Western world's economy, another scandal would be vying for the headlines – and one where the blame would be easier to apportion. It concerns our two countries' relations with Russia and the truth about this summer's Georgia-Russia war...."

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/co ... 12234.html

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