Russia

Topics related to current and historical events occurring in various countries and regions
Matt1989
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Re: Russia

Post by Matt1989 »


John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Countries by turning

Post by John »

Dear Matt,

Here are your maps at 50%, so they fit on the page:

Image

Image


That's really great work!

If only Russia were red instead of blue, the correlation would be so
much greater ...

Sincerely,

John

StilesBC
Posts: 121
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 9:44 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by StilesBC »

Matt,

That's fantastic work! Thanks! I was actually working on a similar project myself.

Do you consider the fall of Communism as a 4th turning in Russia, or do you agree with John that they are in a 5th?

Perhaps the wrong thread for such a discussion.

MisterB
Posts: 19
Joined: Tue Feb 10, 2009 11:41 am

Re: Financial topics

Post by MisterB »

I had a question about Russia also. Is the thinking that the crisis periods were the 1917 revolution and the late 80's early 90's fall of communism? The question is about WW II - The Great Patriotic War to the Russians. If you go though 1917 to the end of WW II that is a 28 year period. Also, WW II was absolutely devestating for the Russians. :?:

malleni
Posts: 150
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 3:34 pm

Re: Russia

Post by malleni »

Matt1989 wrote:Violent clashes in Russia as angry protesters call for Putin to resign over economy (apologies for Daily Mail, but it had pictures)


It looks very "democratic" if you saying (poor) "angry protesters" fight against (evil) Putin.
But truth is perhaps different.

Simple - They are Nazis.
(Russians - but Nazis anyway)

"Protesters" are members of NPB - National Bolshevik Party. They organized this "democratic protest".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Bolshevik_Party
http://nbp-info.com/

I do not think that they have any chance without massive help from West (same as Hitler had).

PS.
ALL similarities with Hitlers Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei (NSDAP) - are incidental.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationalso ... iterpartei

Matt1989
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Matt1989 »

StilesBC wrote:Matt,

That's fantastic work! Thanks! I was actually working on a similar project myself.

Do you consider the fall of Communism as a 4th turning in Russia, or do you agree with John that they are in a 5th?

Perhaps the wrong thread for such a discussion.
Thank you for the kind words. The 'map project' is an older work of mine that I worked on with a friend from the TFT forums, 1990. I recently updated it. It was 1990 who pointed me to the striking correlation. It is difficult to tell how much there is to this, but it is noteworthy at the very least.

As for Russia, I had leaned toward the 5T camp for some time, but I'm on the other side of the fence now, if only slightly. What would be their 4T? Well, I would say from the collapse of the Soviet Union to the Ruble default in 1998, which served as the climax. This is a strange assertion at first glance, since it's difficult for economic issues to produce a climax sentiment. But as I understand it, the period was a sort of psychological floor, from which there were real bottom-up changes that took place. However, it is possible that this was just part of a deep regeneracy: We'll know for sure in 5 years or so.

John
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Re: Russia

Post by John »

Dear Matt,
Matt1989 wrote: > As for Russia, I had leaned toward the 5T camp for some time, but
> I'm on the other side of the fence now, if only slightly. What
> would be their 4T? Well, I would say from the collapse of the
> Soviet Union to the Ruble default in 1998, which served as the
> climax. This is a strange assertion at first glance, since it's
> difficult for economic issues to produce a climax sentiment. But
> as I understand it, the period was a sort of psychological floor,
> from which there were real bottom-up changes that took place.
> However, it is possible that this was just part of a deep
> regeneracy: We'll know for sure in 5 years or so.
I would think that it's clearer today than it was a year ago that
Russia is in a crisis era.

Justin's justification for claiming that this is a Recovery Era is
that Putin has taken Russia past the economic difficulties of the
1990s, and has made Russia economically sound again.

It's now clear that Putin's success was due to the oil bubble that
brought in billions of dollars. Furthermore, Putin went on a huge
credit and spending binge with the oil money, and that's clearly
Unraveling-type behavior. Those days are over, and Russia is facing
economic disaster. A "psychological floor" is no crisis war, but if
it were, then Russia's psychology is quickly falling farther through
that floor.

I think we'll know for sure well before 5 years have passed.

Sincerely,

John

jwfid
Posts: 56
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2008 11:10 pm

Re: Russia

Post by jwfid »

John and Matt,

Since discovering this site in September or so, I've read your two books, John, as well as skimming through "The Fourth Turning". I understand that timelines can come together if the unraveling era for one group is somehow delayed long enough to allow it to occur. Could you please tell me what a fifth turning is, and what you folks think about how unraveling eras can somehow be delayed.

Great job on the map by the way.

Thanks,

Joe

Matt1989
Posts: 170
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:30 am

Re: Russia

Post by Matt1989 »

jwfid wrote: Since discovering this site in September or so, I've read your two books, John, as well as skimming through "The Fourth Turning". I understand that timelines can come together if the unraveling era for one group is somehow delayed long enough to allow it to occur. Could you please tell me what a fifth turning is, and what you folks think about how unraveling eras can somehow be delayed.
(Note: When I use the word "turning," I am referring to the position in the generational constellation. When I use the name for the specific turning, I am referring to the era itself. In Generational Dynamics, these are not always the same, as I will show.)

Under the S&H model, a fifth turning is an impossibility. As there is no anchor for the saeculum, there is nothing that could possibly prevent a society from entering a first turning after 20 years of a fourth turning. The Generational Dynamics model anchors the saeculum on the Crisis, specifically the Crisis Climax, without which a society may not pass into a first turning. After twenty years of a fourth turning, a society will pass into a fifth turning, in which the generational constellation is superficially similar to one in a first turning -- but there are some key differences.

Research on the fifth turning has been pretty skimpy, so defining characteristics are hard to come by. One, however, is the tendency for suicide bombers originating from 5T countries with large Muslim populations. John wrote about this here. Suicide bombers tend to be from the younger generation, so they would normally be part of the Artist archetype, but these would-be Artists are a bit different. My suspicion is that they are sensitive, idealistic, and communitarian "doers" who aren't afraid to get their hands dirty. It's a pretty dangerous combination if you ask me!

Countries that are in a 5th turning today: Turkey, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Ireland (I think). John suspects Russia; I'm kind of on the fence. I'm curious about Iceland too: seeing thousands of anarchists packing city streets screams 5T to me.

John will probably have more to add.
Last edited by Matt1989 on Sat Feb 21, 2009 2:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

The Grey Badger
Posts: 176
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 11:50 pm

Re: Russia

Post by The Grey Badger »

I'm going to suggest that a "5th Turning" is a Recovery gone very, very bad. And that hence the next step WILL be an Awakening - but possibly a toxic awakening?

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