Russia

[Chim Richalds]

I used to be of the mind that Russia had its crisis with the breakup of the Soviet Union, and that it was now in a Recovery Era, but lately my mind has changed somewhat. I am leaning towards 5th Turning, because there really wasn't a regeneracy and climax. Also, someone mentioned that a 5th Turning seems like a Recovery on its face, but isn't really. I think this describes Russia to a tee. Either way, I do not believe they are having a traditional 4th Turning. John always describes the most likely trouble spot with Russia as the Caucasus. I am starting to think that perhaps the 90's wars in the Caucasus were Crisis wars for the Muslim Caucasians, but not for the Russians.

Then I came across this series of articles from Slate Magazine. They are about a western journalist's trip to the Crimea. After reading this I am all but convinced the Crimea will be where Russia's crisis will play out. This is a really great first-hand account that gives you the feeling of the people on the ground, and if you get a chance, please read it.

http://www.slate.com/id/2211811/entry/2211812/

The Crimea is part of the Ukraine, at the present, but was historically part of Russia. Khruschev transferred it to the Ukraine in the 60's I believe, due to its geographical proximity. As John has mentioned many times, the Crimea is one of the 3 main battlefields between the Muslim and Orthodox civilizations, and there's no reason to believe it won't be in the future.

The Ukraine is what Samuel Huntington described as a "cleft country" because the western half is Catholic Ukrainians, and the eastern half is Orthodox Ukrainians. The Crimea is not only a majority Orthodox, but a majority ethnic Russian. It also has a substantial minority of Crimean Tatars, who are Muslim. These people were deported to Central Asia during WWII but came back during the 90's after the fall of the Soviet Union. The Ukrainian government, after the Orange Revolution in 2005 has been pro-western (I'm not sure if this means Catholic-run, but I would assume so), and has been boosting "Ukrainian Nationalism," which is in effect anti-Russia posturing.

The Ukrainian government has allowed the Crimean Russians to use their own language to some extent, but is increasingly ensuring that the Ukrainian language gets equal time on TV as Russian broadcasting. The Ukrainian government is using slogans like "one country, one language, one religion, one people." This has, understandably, got a lot of Crimean Russians worried.

The Crimean Tatars, for their part, are generally pro-Ukraine, due to the historical injustices they have faced from Moscow. The Ukrainian government, after the war with Georgia last summer, believe that Moscow has them in their sites and is convinced that the Crimea will be the "South Ossetia" of the Ukraine. This has them on edge. During that war they showed solidarity with the Georgians and threatened to oust the Russians from their naval base in the Crimea (lease will expire in a few years).

John, you have not mentioned your beliefs on Eastern Europe very much. Do you believe these countries to be aligned with Russia's timeline, or the West's, or do they have their own? If the Ukraine is on Russia's timeline, then I believe we will see a war in the Crimea very soon. Also, any war in the Crimea would likely involve Turkey, since the Crimean Tatars have very close historical ties to the Turks.

[John]

> John, you have not mentioned your beliefs on Eastern Europe very
> much. Do you believe these countries to be aligned with Russia's
> timeline, or the West's, or do they have their own? If the Ukraine
> is on Russia's timeline, then I believe we will see a war in the
> Crimea very soon. Also, any war in the Crimea would likely involve
> Turkey, since the Crimean Tatars have very close historical ties
> to the Turks.

This is where the "merging timelines" comes into play. Russia, the
Balkans, the Caucasus and the Mideast are on the WW I timeline,
having had violent civil wars starting with WW I in 1914 and the
Bolshevik Revolution in 1917.

Some of those crisis wars have already been re-fought -- the Iran/Iraq
war, the Syria/Lebanon/Lebanese civil war, the Bosnian war.

But others have not. The remaining countries are deep into a
generational Crisis era (or fifth turning), and these wars will merge
with the wars on the WW II timeline, to produce a massive Clash of
Civilizations World War.

Sincerely,

John