Diplomacy - Allowing your adversary to have your way

[Reality Check]

The Media has branded the act of Russia annexing the Crimean province of Ukraine, and Russia annexing the eastern most provinces of Ukraine, as a win for Moscow, and a loss for the United States and Western Europe.

But is that true?

If the Crimean province of Ukraine, and just the single, huge, industrial province of Ukraine, the province closest to Russia, were to join Russia, that would remove from Ukraine 13% of the Ukrainian voters, ninety percent of whom were voting pro-Moscow. In Ukraine, a country with voters split 50% to 50% anti-Russian vs pro-Russian, before the Russian invasion, that would push the 80 plus percent of Ukraine that is left as part of Ukraine into the profoundly anti-Russian camp. The remaining Ukrainian voters would be anti-Russian both because they already were decisively anti-Russian before the invasion, and because the theft of land by Russia would make them even more anti-Russian.

On the other hand, the media would brand it a triumph for Obama and the west, if the Obama administration can, via concessions to Russia, allow Russia to "save face" and back down, and leave these provinces in Ukraine. This would be branded as a diplomatic success for Obama, the United States, and Western Europe by the Media.

But is that true?

Russia would prefer to both control those provinces as if they were part of Russia, and in addition have them vote in every Ukrainian national election.

This is where negotiations with Germany, the UK and the U.S. come in. By excluding the government of Ukraine from these negotiations, only Obama, Cameron, Merkle and Putin have to be happy with the results. The Ukrainian people are not even represented at the Diplomatic table. Russia has already won this battle to exclude the Ukrainians ( the U.S. and Western Europe have agreed to, and indeed are, negotiating with Russia, about the future of Ukraine, without Ukraine even present in the room ).

A win for Obama, Merkle and Cameron would be one where they could claim they kept Russia from annexing any provinces from Ukraine. A win for Putin would be one where armed Russian troops are on the ground in all the Russian speaking provinces of Ukraine, and the local pro-Russian voters have both autonomy within their own province, and are still able to vote pro-Russian in Ukrainian national elections.

The above would NOT be in the interest of an independent, sovereign Ukraine, but the Ukrainian people have already been excluded from the negotiations, so that does not really matter. This is exactly what the west did to the country of Georgia ( not in 2008, but years before when the west had approved armed Russian troops in parts Georgia as "U.N. peace keepers" to avoid the legal issues of calling them occupation troops) Russia agreed back then to call those areas, the portions of Georgia Russia's "armed UN Monitors" controlled, parts of the country of Georgia. That all changed when Russia went to war with Georgia in 2008 and then declared the Russian occupied areas of George as "separate countries, and no longer part of Georgia".

Should the west, at this point in time, refuse to allow armed Russian monitors, and autonomy for the pro-Russian majority, in all the Russian speaking provinces of Ukraine, Russia still has, the option Putin insists on preserving, to invade and occupy eastern and southern Ukraine ( the areas where many Ukrainians speak Russian ) for the purpose of protecting the Russian speaking Ukrainians ( even if they do not want the help). This would force the West to negotiate from an even worse position than the west is in now. The west would either have to give concessions to Russia in a way that makes them look even weaker than if they made the same concessions now ( before an expanded Russian invasion ), or they would have to make good their ( the west's ) threats of serious sanctions and bring on the world recession that would cost all the western leaders their jobs.

The easiest thing to do here, for Obama, Merkle and Cameron, is sell Ukraine out early and declare it a win for the west ( the western media would help them out on the selling job). Ukrainian voters, at least some of those who are currently pro-west, would, correctly, blame the west for this sell out and respect the Russians for being reliable allies to their friends in Ukraine ( un-like the west who sold their friends in Ukraine out). A win-win for Russia. Some pro-western Ukrainians would leave Ukraine for a better life in the west, which is already a trend, others would start voting pro-Russian. Again, a win-win for Russia.

Russia is practicing diplomacy, the art of letting your enemy have your way.