Russia Playing a Losing hand? - Or is the West Blind ?

[Reality Check]

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Obama says Russia is acting out of weakness and Russia is just a regional power.

If Russia wakes up Nato by just taking a few more eastern Oblasts (provinces) of Ukraine, then Obama may be right.

Ukraine without those provinces will be, from a voter stand point, profoundly anti-Russian.

The combined military might of the NATO countries dwarfs Russia's conventional military forces, and if NATO guarantees the remainder of Ukraine and Moldova, and moves in NATO troops while Russia is busy consolidating gains in Eastern Ukraine, then Moscow will have lost much more than it gained.

On the other hand If Russia uses the next invasion to take the south and the center of Ukraine, cutting off the Ukrainian military forces in the East to be dealt with later, and isolating western Ukraine. Then Russia can consolidate it's defense against NATO in Romainia, and deal with cut off Ukrainian forces in the EAST after the border with Romania is secure.

Russia will again have it's empire in Ukraine and Moldova.

Is Putin playing for success, or playing for failure?