Russia

[Trevor]

I've been listening to some talk that Putin's making preparations to invade not only Ukraine, but an actual NATO ally, such as Estonia or Lithuania. Both of them have considerable Russian populations, and the idea is to claim that these actions are meant to "protect" them in a similar away.

Most of the polls I've seen indicate that Western Europe and even the United States would do nothing significant or perhaps nothing at all to defend from a Russian invasion. Perhaps only 40 percent are willing to do so, and in some Western European countries, that number is even lower. Having a member of NATO attacked and its allies doing nothing would be a complete disaster and would end up sending the message that the alliance is ultimately meaningless today.

Putin's words are getting more and more vitriolic. Russia's economy is collapsing, and he doesn't have much else to keep him in power. From the impressions I get, he believes that Europe and the United States are too weak and unwilling to do anything more than issue condemnations. If he succeeds, he could destroy NATO in a way the old Soviet Union never could.

However, he's playing a very dangerous game here and this is a major gamble for him. At least for the time being, he's likely right about Europe not wanting to do anything, even if an ally is directly being attacked. The West does not want a war and for now, are willing to do just about anything to keep the peace. The question is: what happens when that stops working?

[Trevor]

Here's the poll I was referring to:

http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/06/10/nat ... itary-aid/

[jmm1184]

Eventually there will be a point when the west says enough and retaliates. As John has said before, Putin is playing a dangerous game where it thinks the west will never stand up to him. However, just as people have a limit for how far they can be pushed before their patience runs out, so do nations.

Of course there's always the possibility that by that time china will make war on Russia and the west, in which case the logic of the enemy of my enemy is my friend will apply.