Dear Matt,
Matt1989 wrote:
> Right now, I think Greece is in a 5th turning, with the last
> crisis being World War One and the Greco-Turkish war that involved
> genocidal acts on both sides. (I believe the Greek Civil War in
> the 40s occurred during the early days of a 2T.)
John wrote:
> You may be right, but the period from 1967-74 has to be looked at
> closely.
Matt1989 wrote:
> I actually think it's pretty consistent for an early Unraveling
> period, if a little on the violent side. But consider the WWI era
> (and the next few years) as a parallel to the U.S.
You may well be right, and I hope to have a chance to do some real
research on Greece at some point. (My parents would be so proud!)
However, I have to tell you that I'm very suspicious about calling
Greece's current era a fifth turning. Even though I did all the
theoretical development on fifth turnings, I'm probably almost as
skeptical about them as others are.
There are major examples of countries in fifth turnings today --
Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Russia. What ties these three countries
together is an enormous amount of revenue coming from oil.
In other words, what I'm saying is that one factor that can permit a
country to get through a fourth turning with no crisis war is having
lots of money. Another factor is a sparse, well-fed population.
But I know of no such factor in Greece in recent decades. Greece has
a fairly dense population with a lot of economic problems. I just
don't see how it's possible for Greece to be in a fifth turning
today.
I've been paying little attention to the Greek riots going on, but
unless they spiral out of control, the little I have been reading
indicates to me an Awakening era type situation with outside
protesters. One possible comparison would be to al-Qaeda in Iraq's
attempt, in an Awakening era, to foment a civil war in Iraq, which
fizzled quickly as the Iraqi people drove the fomenters out.
Sincerely,
John