Mexico

[Matt1989]

U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible

[protagonist]

Yes, that's why the U.S has been pouring troops into Mexico, to prevent it from collapsing.

[John]

Yes, that's why the U.S has been pouring troops into Mexico, to prevent it from collapsing.

Huh?

[MarshAviator]

Re: Mexico

Postby John on Fri Jan 23, 2009 9:12 pm

protagonist wrote:Yes, that's why the U.S has been pouring troops into Mexico, to prevent it from collapsing.



Huh?

John

http://www.elpasotimes.com/news/ci_11448257

The Mexican army has sent an estimated 2,000 troops to Juárez as part of a rotation even as the death toll surpassed 35 so far this year.

Two men were killed Tuesday evening, shot multiple times in separate attacks in which nearly 70 rounds were fired.

I think he means the Mexican Army has been sending troops.

Obviously No US Army troops have been to Mexico under arms after John "Blackjack" Pershing incursion chasing Pancho Villa.

[John]

> http://www.elpasotimes.com/news/ci_11448257

This is an incredibly important story, with huge potential impact.
I just wish I had an extra few hours to do an article on it.

John

[Matt1989]

> http://www.elpasotimes.com/news/ci_11448257

This is an incredibly important story, with huge potential impact.
I just wish I had an extra few hours to do an article on it.

John

FWIW, I think Mexico is the most likely nation-state to collapse in '09. As has been made abundantly clear, the state is rapidly losing their monopoly on violence (I suspect that it is already lost and the people are quite aware of this), their oil production is collapsing far faster than any other nation, there is no nationwide ideology that will continue to bind them together, and they are in a 5th turning. When combined with the quickening worldwide economic collapse, Mexico is in for one hell of a disaster.

[John]

Dear Matt,

> FWIW, I think Mexico is the most likely nation-state to collapse
> in '09. As has been made abundantly clear, the state is
> rapidly losing their monopoly on violence (I suspect that it is
> already lost and the people are quite aware of this), their oil
> production is collapsing far faster than any other nation, there
> is no nationwide ideology that will continue to bind them
> together, and they are in a 5th turning. When combined with the
> quickening worldwide economic collapse, Mexico is in for one hell
> of a disaster.

And don't forget the real hostility between indigenous people (Aztec
and Mayans) and people of European descent. That's the fault line
along which the last Mexican revolution was fought, and it's sure to
spill over into California and New Mexico.

Sincerely.

John

[MarshAviator]

http://www.elpasotimes.com/news/ci_11641299

The Mexican army and heavily armed federal police with a helicopter flying overhead raided a drug warehouse Thursday morning in Juárez even as killings are surging beyond the extraordinary levels of last year.

If it isn't a war zone, it would be hard to tell by the body count, which has reached 207 in the Juárez area this year.

In the first five days of February, 54 people were slain, surpassing the 37 homicides in all of February last year.

The raid by forces with Joint Operation Chihuahua led to the seizure of nearly 2 tons of marijuana hidden in plastic containers apparently ready to be transported to the United States, said Enrique Torres, spokesman for the federal anti-crime operation.

An estimated 100
federal agents and soldiers with their faces masked took part in the unusually strong show of force as they rushed into the same warehouse on Mexico street where four men were shot to death Tuesday. No arrests were reported.

Irrespective of "peak oil" the decline of Mexican oil from the Cantrell Field is going to starve the government of revenue needed to have any hope of stabilizing things.

This current trend is growing exponentially, soon in practice the cartels are going to be in charge no mater who claims control in Mexico City.

What impact this will have in Texas and California (also a revenue starved state) will soon be known.
My guess is the summer which always increases violence (summer murder rates are the highest across most if not all countries), will be the tipping point.

By July look out.

[John]

I've been researching this Mexico story, and I'm having a hard time
getting a handle on it.

There are many stories about the "drug war" and "drug cartels" and
violence, but who are these people? The stories carry no hint of
ethnic issues, but I just don't believe that people of European
origin and people of Aztec origin are working together in one of
these gangs. So, what are the demographics of a drug cartel?

Assuming that the drug cartels are all run by people of European
descent, then what do the Aztec descendants think of them? (I
mention the Aztecs in particular, since the cartels operate in
northern Mexico, the historical home of the Aztecs.) If I were an
Aztec living in an Aztec community, and there were drug cartel wars
going on around me, I'd be pretty pissed. But I haven't found that
type of information so far.

In other words, there must be something else going on, because what I
keep reading in the news accounts is nothing but vanilla news
reports. If anyone has any ideas, let me know.

Sincerely,

John

[The Grey Badger]

Aren't most Mexicans of both descents in varying proportions? Now, I don't think the drug gangs are composed of, or even run by, any sort of Europeanized (or Americanized) blond elite - though such may be getting their payoffs. Nor do I think they're being run by militant Mayans out of Chiapas or any variation on that. I think they're plain old mestizo Mexicans of varying social class - underclass runners and mules etc - and of course, self-made bosses who might even have started out fairly affluent. One never knows.