You won't unless you threaten somebody or they need to deflect blame by showing that you are a widely followed "person of influence" whose postings helped trigger a run. In reading the Fed proposal, I always first put myself in their shoes and ask what they are trying to respond to and why they are responding in this manner at this time.Carl Lieberman wrote:A couple of responses. Higgy, I have also read that the Fed is monitoring social media. Does this mean that I will soon be getting a knock on the door;--)
But the policies of the Fed are disadvantaging almost every other country in the world relative to the U.S. Bernanke is acting in America's interest with his policies. He is acting as a catalyst unleashing a torrent of structural change in country after country. The "Arab Spring" being just one example. The world is an extraordinarily complex system. The unintended consequences of large scale interventions will themselves be large. We have unleashed a rapid destabilization of the status quo.
Looking at the Fed's influence on the stock market from the standpoint of mean reversion indicates that the successful attempt to elevate prices above the April 2010 high will result in a deeper crash than would have occurred in the absence of QE2. I believe that the successful attempt to elevate prices above the July 2007 high resulted in the subsequent crash extending from November 2008 until March 2009 with the S&P losing an additional 10% (after gaining only 1.3% from July to October 2007). Given that the S&P gained 12% from April 2010 to May 2011, I believe the subsequent crash will extend for a long time beyond the ideal time target with the S&P losing perhaps an additional 50% beyond the ideal crash bottom price target which would have occurred in the absence of QE2.
