Financial topics

[aedens]

Many years ago, Arthur Clarke said that we totally overestimate what we can do in the short term, and utterly underestimate what we can accomplish in the long term. He was perfectly correct.
I tend to agree since productive people are just that.
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/1 ... m-barrett/
In a Pareto efficient economic system no allocation of given goods can be made without making at least one individual worse off.
http://www.dallasfed.org/research/paper ... wp0102.pdf

"the trick is in knowing how far to take them in reality"
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nationa ... elease.htm I see no good news here at all.
Real disposable income decreased 0.1 percent in January, in contrast to an increase of 0.3 percent in December.
Real PCE increased less than 0.1 percent, in contrast to a decrease of less than 0.1 percent.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-2 ... text-.html
Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income (DPI), frequently referred to as “the personal saving rate,”
is calculated as the ratio of personal saving to DPI.
Definitions: http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf

[OLD1953]

People are spending rather than saving because disposable personal income went south. I suspect quite a few extra house payments are finding their way into the system.

http://www.zillow.com/blog/research/201 ... ing-water/

http://www.zillow.com/blog/research/fil ... income.jpg

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/ ... ent/z1.pdf

Household debt declined at an annual rate of 1¼
percent in the third quarter, continuing the
contraction that began in the third quarter of 2008.
Home mortgage debt fell at an annual rate of 1¾
percent in the third quarter, slightly less of a decline
than in the first half of the year. In contrast,
consumer credit rose at an annual rate of 1¼ percent,
the fourth consecutive quarter of increase.

It looks to me as if people are paying down their homes, but buying cars that are less expensive to drive. Doubtless many regard such as an investment that pays returns over time.

http://www.thecarconnection.com/news/10 ... since-2008

I'd say people are looking hard at the TCO figures on websites like Edmunds.

[Marc]

Interesting data in regards to disposable/household income and debt. It is indeed interesting to see how mortgage-related and other debt has declined, while consumer indebtedness has risen. It is quite possible, however, that mortgage debt is down due to fewer people being able to be homeowners or afford as much house as in the past, coupled with markedly rising foreclosures/repossessions. Still interesting data, though. Thanks for sharing! —Best regards, Marc

[aedens]

If consumers expect the rise in oil prices to be temporary, or if they expect the near term effects on output to be greater than the long-term effects, they will attempt to smooth out their consumption by saving less or borrowing more which boosts the equilibrium real interest rate. Dallas Fed
The undertow is claiming to many Households meanwhile. Total Consumer Credit Outstanding (TOTALSL), Monthly, End of Period, Seasonally Adjusted.
Those who assume credit is a patrotic duty may be surprised sooner than later. Household deleveraging levels numbers are still dropping. I assume a few are default writeoff than actual payments.
http://www.russell.com/indexes/ <-------- watching lately...

[aedens]

Contrary to popular opinion, speculators do not, as a whole, go only short or long. There are large numbers of both long and short contracts, as well as spreading positions, which occur when a trader has an equal number of long and short positions. An increase in spreading positions dominates the growth in both short and long positions.
http://partners.futuresource.com/market ... /crack.pdf
We know the definition of to many dollars chasing finite supply. Computers make sure they get executed as designed, round-the-clock and without emotion. The system holds together as the working classes are slowly destroyed.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CRK321M1:IND ~$31.00
http://mobile.businessweek.com/finance/ ... 52012.html

http://www.nanex.net/Research/QuoteStuf ... anned.html

http://www.chrismartenson.com/page/tran ... k-townsend
The US economy is still in such a slump that we really have not felt that big price shock yet, but it is coming. And it has really affected a lot of the world very harshly.

[OLD1953]

This story made me laugh. I wonder how many of those folks in the MidWest who support that pipeline realize they are supporting higher gas prices for themselves?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/ ... 6J20111116

http://www.newson6.com/story/17041171/w ... ma-drivers

For that matter, many don't seem to realize just how much of that pipeline has already been constructed.

http://www.transcanada.com/keystone_pipeline_map.html

It's a four stage build. Hover over the map to see how much is already constructed.

[aedens]

Meanwhile the working class is destoyed. Cui bono?

[aedens]

This story made me laugh. I wonder how many of those folks in the MidWest who support that pipeline realize they are supporting higher gas prices for themselves?
http://www.newson6.com/story/17041171/w ... ma-drivers
For that matter, many don't seem to realize just how much of that pipeline has already been constructed.
It's a four stage build. Hover over the map to see how much is already constructed.

Tue Feb 21, 2012 10:25am EST
HOUSTON, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Seaway pipeline has started purging the contents of the line to prepare for reversal from the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub to the U.S. Gulf Coast, industry data monitor Genscape said Tuesday. The line's operator, Enterprise Products, could not be reached immediately to confirm that purging has begun.

[OLD1953]

Yes, those companies are seeing the chance of getting another 30$ a bbl for that oil flying away from them.

It's just too funny, the contradictory positions taken by the congress in favor of the pipeline but opposed to higher oil prices in the USA are just killing me laughing.

But it certainly is a showcase example of how delivery bottlenecks can result in price distortions.

[Trevor]

well, Moody's just cut Greece's bonds again to C, meaning that they're "In default will little prospect of recovery". The talks are also falling apart, in part because different sides want different things. Some believe it would be best to just have them default rather than spend more money, particularly since there's strong public pressure in that direction. The bondholders are angry that they're going to lose about 75 percent of what they invested, which is liable to hurt already weak banks and businesses.

That being said, they'll likely come up with some kind of deal.