Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

Greenspan was obviously attacking the man for the purpose of discrediting him, not because Greenspan believed that no one could have predicted the crisis.

The myth that Greenspan and his like want to preserve is that the requisite knowledge only exists within the inner sanctums. We've written about this before somewhere and I'll try to find it.

How much money did he lose and over what period of time?

The impression I got from reading the details was that he lost about 50% over a period of 18 months to two years. It's been a few years since I read about it though.

Another thing I'd mention is that he's been buying farmland and gold. He may well be right in the long run, but I saw no indication he sold out at the peak last year.

[Reality Check]

The fact that not a single Senator or Congressman contacted him to seek his advice on what happened during the economic crisis and how to fix things so a crisis like this never happens again is simply astounding.

RC, they're too arrogant. I heard Greenspan say Burry could be dismissed because he was just lucky and nobody could have predicted the meltdown.

Greenspan's self serving dismissal is understandable, even if dishonorable.

The amazing part is that not even one of the 535 members of Congress contacted Dr. Burry out of intellectual curiosity.

Many of these people had nothing to hide regarding this crisis, and yet they felt no curiosity and no responsibility to gather as much information as possible on what actually happened before and during the crisis.

That is what is truly amazing.

[aedens]

That is what is truly amazing.
Senate floor 2005 debate was Housing. A year before a major inhibitor appears to be what economists call "home bias."
http://www.federalreserve.gov/Pubs/IFDP ... dp691r.pdf
GDP-weighted correlation coefficient was 0.97 in 1970. However, it fell from the still elevated 0.96 in 1992 to less than 0.8 in 2002. For OECD countries excluding the United States, the recent decline is even more pronounced. These declines, not surprisingly, mirror the rise in the differences between saving and investment or, equivalently, of the dispersion of current account balances over the same years.
The international version of the classical capital asset pricing model (ICAPM), based on
traditional portfolio theory developed by Sharpe (1964) and Linter (1965), predicts that to
maximize risk-adjusted returns investors should hold the world market portfolio of risky assets.
Later Cargo Cult warning and typical variation of greed and fear press.
Do you think a analyst will build a business or define why it burned down? We are moving forward, Models exist some do not even understand.
Strictures are reality. I warned that beta models are not my cup of tea. Positions will be defended and if they poke the wrong pricipal as they
say do not be that guy. Just because you can now triggers a response metric as we noted back for no man status. Do not be that guy when it turns
its head. Size will drive risk models to give the impression to derisk and lesson impact.

[Higgenbotham]

Ah, you got to that one before this X'er here decided to post on that topic, which was coming And, I was indeed wondering the same damn thing as you were, Higgie: How the hell can "Heroes" such as these middle-schoolers spew that swill on an adult school official like that?

Since I grew up and went to school in that district (all 13 years), that story made a huge impression because that could not have happened during the time I attended that district. Impossible. Have socioeconomic conditions changed enough there to make it a completely different place from what I knew? I hadn't gotten that impression from a visit 3 years ago but the middle class in that area has lost a lot and incomes are definitely down. The people there seemed shell shocked, but more humble and decent than I remembered them being.

[Higgenbotham]

The amazing part is that not even one of the 535 members of Congress contacted Dr. Burry out of intellectual curiosity.

Many of these people had nothing to hide regarding this crisis, and yet they felt no curiosity and no responsibility to gather as much information as possible on what actually happened before and during the crisis.

That is what is truly amazing.

Actually, I'm not amazed by that. I don't think Congress wants to know.

10 years ago, I was a whistleblower who exposed wrongdoing in a government agency by being interviewed for an investigative report on a local TV station. At the time, I was shocked that I was not contacted by anybody in an official capacity even though my name was shown clearly on the TV screen several times. I'm no longer shocked. These people just don't give a shit. That's another reason why I'm pretty sure we're moving into a Dark Age. Beyond that, nobody who saw the report even contacted me to ask a question or say thanks. Nobody!

[aedens]

Cargo Cult H nothing else exists in most. They know not what they do. Lawyers are not Engineers. The Public is years behind. Remember 2.3 trillion missing
and not jack will ever be done because financial systems are broken was the testamony. "'According to some estimates we cannot track $2.3 trillion in transactions,' Rumsfeld admitted. $2.3 trillion — that's $8,000 for every man, woman and child in America." CBS 1/29/02
Americans are Idiots point blank. 330 grams of silver gets you nailed to a tree brother. Honest men can never be cheated.

[Higgenbotham]

Cargo Cult H nothing else exists in most. They know not what they do. Lawyers are not Engineers. The Public is years behind. Remember 2.3 trillion missing
and not jack will ever be done because finanacial systems are broken was the testamony. "'According to some estimates we cannot track $2.3 trillion in transactions,' Rumsfeld admitted. $2.3 trillion — that's $8,000 for every man, woman and child in America." CBS 1/29/02
Americans are Idiots point blank. 330 grams of silver gets you nailed to a tree brother.

I got my education early by being in the belly of the beast. As you point out, 2002 was a critical turn and Greenspan figures into it because that should have been the onset of the crisis but was papered over with the bubble which he denies. Even at the time Bernanke took over, he could have righted the ship. Read between the lines. This is history repeating itself, but not American history.

[vincecate]

I'm not sold on the idea that we have a bonafide Hero generation who can pull us out of this mess.

My mother-in-law just turned 89. She was part of Anguilla's revolution and has the hero generation characteristics. She has a strength, determination, and toughness that does not seem so common in the young folks. I I too wonder if we will really have the hero generation when we need it. I understand that it always seems to work this way, yet still I wonder.

[Reality Check]

10 years ago, I was a whistleblower who exposed wrongdoing in a government agency by being interviewed for an investigative report on a local TV station. At the time, I was shocked that I was not contacted by anybody in an official capacity even though my name was shown clearly on the TV screen several times. I'm no longer shocked. These people just don't give a shit. That's another reason why I'm pretty sure we're moving into a Dark Age. Beyond that, nobody who saw the report even contacted me to ask a question or say thanks. Nobody!

The part that truly amazes me is that ambitious people, some with good motives and some with bad motives, might find some way to use a whistleblower's knowledge, or Dr. Burry's knowledge to their own advantage.

Even if you assume they are evil and they are up to no good, sending a staffer to find out if there is some information they might be able to use to bring down an enemy, or bargain away for some benefit for themselves would seem advisable. But not one out 535 was ambitious enough to send a staffer. Amazing.

[Reality Check]

I'm not sold on the idea that we have a bonafide Hero generation who can pull us out of this mess.

My mother-in-law just turned 89. She was part of Anguilla's revolution and has the hero generation characteristics. She has a strength, determination, and toughness that does not seem so common in the young folks. I I too wonder if we will really have the hero generation when we need it. I understand that it always seems to work this way, yet still I wonder.

My father was of the World War II generation. Almost all 18 to 21 year olds of all generations believe they are righteous. Like my 18 year old daughter today my father was just trying to find his way in the hopeless world of the great depression when he entered the Army Air Corps at age 21 a little over a year before Pearl Harbor.

Perhaps he was just in the right place ( or the wrong place depending on luck ) to find out what righteous really means.

Maybe it is the times they live through that make them heroes, not the parenting they received, or did not receive.

It is the world of danger and desperation that they inherit, not just the moral values that were passed on to them by previous generations, that brings out the strength, determination and toughness in the survivors. My father's brother went through the same war and remained drunk after he got out of the war until he drove a car into a river. One, of my mother's brothers, flew a fighter plane into the ocean during a training exercise in England during WWII. They were not all strong enough, tough enough, or lucky enough to survive.

That agrees with my limited understanding of Generational theory.