Financial topics

[aedens]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-0 ... eath-saver

The whole construct of the current fiat regime is to fracture and eliminate the
middle class to subducate them into cartels as we have noted countless times.
Since the regime construct of the banker war since 1863 is size to meet cartel
commodity blocks there is no moral high ground. Even the czar understood when he
defended Lincolns flank of the san fransico gold supply on the west coast
he sent the clear notice to the banking war cartels in europe. As the keiser noted
social security is for veterans peace of mind. Currently 63 million are attached to the
MIC voter block teat. The numbers speak for themselves over the last
couple of years to the overall unsustainable social security abuses from Stratagems to the early
demise from even simple corrosive math skills to the insurance program it actually is.
The point remains since 1964 it was simple logic and the current mental illness of dimmcrats
to destroy the republic. The red diapers have overrun the system. The cycle is almost complete
as I watched the attack dog reid spew his current paid for 100 million political cycle madness upon us.

I see no solution with any thing and I mean thing with any tenure over 12 years willing to counter
these animal farmed creatures. I seen a decent list of 14 items the so called public deems relavent.
I do see a relavent conversation in the first place with either party to date. The energy question stood
out as did the current spending maniacs talking points unrelated to reality of trade balance.
Both partys are deranged and detached from fiscal sanity point blank.

Thought map of an era I do not agree or disagree with but worth reading the topical realitys
written during the commodity cotton war earlier and the over production in two other zones
when you drill down to the relavant topical facts. For another facet read Alfred Marshall for
the LSE vein of modalities.
http://socialistaotearoa.blogspot.be/20 ... mburg.html

http://online.saintleo.edu/military-fri ... leges.aspx

http://w2.vatican.va/content/francesco/ ... #audiences

http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/leo_x ... um_en.html intent

Hence we have the family, the "society" of a man's house - a society very small, one must admit, but none the less a true society, and one older than any State. Consequently, it has rights and duties peculiar to itself which are quite independent of the State.

The state has no claim on my capital, to sieze capital to murder the unborn in any stage to the states preface of morals.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-0 ... eath-saver I will not support evil since no burden has not been done
at the Cross. All debt is gone and the neo pagan rentier statements are clearly understood under my roof.
http://gdxforum.com/forum/search.php?ke ... sf=msgonly

http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/john_ ... ns_en.html

Everybody knows that capitalism has a definite historical meaning as a system, an economic and social system, opposed to "socialism" or "communism". But in the light of the analysis of the fundamental reality of the whole economic process-first and foremost of the production structure that work is-it should be recognized that the error of early capitalism can be repeated wherever man is in a way treated on the same level as the whole complex of the material means of production, as an instrument and not in accordance with the true dignity of his work-that is to say, where he is not treated as subject and maker, and for this very reason as the true purpose of the whole process of production.

Without this consideration it is impossible to understand the meaning of the virtue of industriousness, and more particularly it is impossible to understand why industriousness should be a virtue: for virtue, as a moral habit, is something whereby man becomes good as man. This fact in no way alters our justifiable anxiety that in work, whereby matter gains in nobility, man himself should not experience a lowering of his own dignity. Again, it is well known that it is possible to use work in various ways against man, that it is possible to punish man with the system.

Cf. Summa Th. I-II, q. 40, a. 1, c.; I-II, q. 34, a. 2, ad 1.

[aedens]

Inverse Curve, TBTF is Quickening, Like "Highlander"

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USNUM (total Banks) Commercial Banks in the U.S. 2014:Q1: 5,743 Number

5,743 total down from 14.400 Total in 1985 (wow)

I like charts:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ROWFDN... ($3.16 Foreign Investment USA)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GPDI ($2.69 Private Domestic Investment)
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/interna ... glance.htm
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GFDEGDQ188S (Total Debt as percent of GDP)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GFDEBTN (Total Federal Debt $17.6 TN)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CP (corporate profits, 1-1-2014)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DIVIDEND

Corporate Taxes end of 2013 = 273.5 Billion (Treasury data end of Fiscal year Sept 2013)
Corporate Profit end of 2013 = $1.9045 Trillion

$273.5/1,904,5 = 14.4% Corporate Tax

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BKFTTLA641N (all institution failures)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USNUM (total Banks)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/se ... OINUSA672N (Median household income, what? discontinued?)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PSAVE (Personal savings)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/se ... 01A027NBEA (SNAP Payments, 1-1-2012)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GINIALLRH (Gini Ratio/Coefficient, what? discontinued?)

Probably should have more charts for People and the Quality of Life of People...But the Truth is Debt is Exponential, Compensation is Down, Jobs have been lost, Medical Costs are up, Pensions are under funded, ...Social Security is under funded and being attacked, Medicare is under funded, Costs are Exponentially Increasing, no on cares about cost, and is being attacked. And the Funding for VA Admin went up (only doubled since 2001 for Medical) despite two wars and Tripling of funding increases for the whole agency.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BKIFDCA641N (FDIC Failures)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BKIRTCA641N (RTC Failures thou terminated data didn't propagate)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BKFTTLA641N (all institution failures)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USNUM (total Banks)

Oligopoly. Anti-Trust. Control over the Free People. Intrusive governance by Private Corporations.
h/t tee

[Higgenbotham]

Market priced for years of negative returns
Bank of International Settlements issues a warning

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140707.htm

[gerald]

Higgenbotham -- here is something to chew on -- a Seven minute "Occult Message in Speech by Christine Lagarde of IMF" -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYmViPTndxw&app=desktop

In using numerology she implies July 20, 2014 is important, Christine Lagarde spends considerable time in the numerology realm. --hmmm

Going over the speech these also look like possibilities:

7-07-14 - 70th anniversary of the founding of the World Bank and the completion of the foundation of Bretton Woods
7-22-14 - Conclusion of Bretton Woods conference, countries accept agreement
7-28-14 - 100th anniversary of the start of WWI

Probably none of the above. You know how that goes. Though my personal favorite is 7-7-14.

Yea, tin foil hat time, and these are our Leaders? Nice, lets roll the chicken bones.

[gerald]

Market priced for years of negative returns
Bank of International Settlements issues a warning

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140707.htm

from the zero hedge comment section http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-0 ... restimated

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 18:27 | 4929906Sudden Debt

The fact that the dow is now so high.... Without any serious fundamentals... Tells me we'll see dow 34000 before we see Dow 13000

It makes no sence but so is the current valuation and the Fed will keep on printing and will even increase it.

The dow is a representation of inflation and i think in that way, it's priced right for the near future when reality will sink in.

When they drop de dollar for example, the dow will be at 200k. Sure the economy will be in the craphouse but it's not like it's linked.

[aedens]

Market priced for years of negative returns
Bank of International Settlements issues a warning

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140707.htm

no leverage no debt until the window passes. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4APCNbGIc0s

[Higgenbotham]

The discussion of valuation is very good. This bubble is systemic and more difficult to identify as an out of control bubble, but nonetheless he shows that it is in one aspect, the current stock market.

With a normal generational bubble based on real technological progress, a sector that is obviously overvalued, like computer technology, can more easily trigger the collapse as it falls from lofty values while other sectors are at more normal valuations.

With this bubble, it has grown through most all parts of the economy. For example, in addition to the points he makes, there are bubbles in food stamps, student loans, subprime auto loans, real estate, CLOs, health care and so on with no bubble by itself being large enough to trigger alarm, but the sum total of all the bubbles being very large, very likely larger than the sum total of the technology bubble and everything else in the year 2000, or the sum total of the real estate bubble and everything else in the year 2007. Yet, there is no one thing anyone can point to that is obviously out of line compared to previous bubbles. For example, one can say that technology is reasonable compared to 2000, or that subprime auto loans, student loans and CLOs are all relatively small compared to the real estate debt that was generated in 2007. Any particular sector looks reasonable in some aspect in comparison to some previous extreme. Nobody adds it all up.

http://www.munknee.com/next-bear-market ... orm-heres/

[aedens]

http://www.munknee.com/next-bear-market ... orm-heres/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6Atg1Q2NYE

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-0 ... ok-excerpt

Unwound positions. More seen what was seen early. Convergances, no clue.

Our view was early and within a few weeks, we shall see. I have nothing to consider what men consider to see under His Sun for now.

Our group took measured steps on capex and opex for now.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gk1DcFz-Uc

no hang ups for one day http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pU9JAvZGaIg

“If the rate of change on the outside exceeds the rate of change on the inside, the end is near.” Jack Welch

http://solarcycles.net/2014/07/04/burned-by-the-sun/

Holding my view into the 28th - some tier three assets will be sold into mid window. Leveraged and tier tow and tier one sold into the view of the 8th.

That hinged on our early is wrong discussion from dec 2013 notes and

Last raid was 400 milliseconds Stocks are for rent, some longer than others. Feb 24, 2013

[vincecate]

Yellen would not like to pop a bubble using interest rates. But there are other ways. For example increasing margin requirements can pop a bubble.

I note that people can buy bonds at my broker with only 10% down. For 20 year bonds you only need to keep 6% equity. If bonds start crashing these margin guys will be selling and add to the crash.

For stocks it seems you only need 25% equity. If regulators change this to 50% then a bunch of people will sell and it could pop the bubble.

[Higgenbotham]

The stock market could be in immediate trouble. For sure it is on a foundation of sand.

This is a link to the advancers and decliners on July 2, 2014. That was an up day.
http://unicorn.us.com/advdec/2014/adU20140702.txt

I haven't checked every piece of data going back decades but based on looking at the market a long time I would be fairly confident to say that there hasn't been an up day with a plurality of 800 decliners. It would be rare anyway.

Normally, on an up day near a top that has a plurality of decliners, it may be a plurality of 100 or so. That would be viewed as a warning but 800 so far as I know is unheard of. Not only that, but on Thursday's nice up day, the market only overcame about half of that 800.