Financial topics

[aeden]

I know John is unhappy with us but it took a week for another to finally suggest that was the first blast wave.
What is meant is the return of the blast wave as displacement. The flutter loop you mentioned just mixed the ingredient's
in my view and they are struck with the net effects just seen in recent percentages. Another guy mentioned they just pit stopped
the car for fresh tires and refuel. The blast ring was self evident as the forensic and medical teams appear for team xiv who is
burning at turn two as I see it. What we are measuring is how many are wandering in shell shock this week.
The next window is seen as day zero in one zone since as The Tenth Man offered help and it was soundly refused.
The contagion may spread into Johns worldview as GD as we noted also GGS also from Mr. Diamond.
We noted the effect as the one way migration routes which is posited to be one way back in the forums.
Evidence confirms DNA from areas it was thought to be impossible to happen from recent sampling also.
Science has evidence just as Science deconstructs evidence for the narrative it needs.
Professor Santos also called them out on it since the point was clear evidence was erased as they were in charge
when it was destroyed by them in the second place. A date was posted for the observation in that regional fact
which overlays the other projections we are already aware of.

[Higgenbotham]

I'll state my philosophy on the long term predictions I posted.

I think to move forward, each person should develop their own personal view of what the future will look like. That's the only reason that I tried to develop long term predictions. It took me 15 years to settle on that single paragraph I posted. Most of it was settled on after 10 years with some minor modification in the past 5 years.

Each person's predictions combined with their assessment of their strengths and weaknesses then give them a blueprint to move forward.

It's not a case of who is right or wrong. Based on my incomplete base of knowledge, I believe my predictions are the most probable scenario I can use to move forward. So, for example, if I believe you open the tap one day in the next 20 years and nothing comes out, then I need to move away from dependence on that. If, like John, you believe there will be an all-out nuclear war and want to be at ground zero, then it doesn't matter. If you believe instead that pandemics will be the major death vector, that gives you a different path forward.

I have posted a few items that support the reasons I came to this view, but I don't expect others to adopt my view. I think at this time, though, everyone should adopt a view other than the default which normally works fine over a lifetime, which is that tomorrow will be close enough to today that it doesn't matter. That even worked OK for most people in 1929.

[Higgenbotham]

So when Tim asked a few questions about how to invest, I bridged a lot of gaps and made a lot of assumptions to answer that, rather than ask a lot of questions first. What someone should do with their money might be affected by something as seemingly unrelated as whether they are dependent on any medications like insulin.

[Higgenbotham]

I went into the day long a few stocks and traded futures small. As of now, I have no positions long or short. My next move will be to look for a place to go short. It may be in the next 3 days, depending on what I see. I don't believe the top of the stock market is in, but I may try a short, as the panic does have the potential to worsen later this month.

[aeden]

The butcher...the baker...the candlestick maker....
turn 'em out, knaves all three

Sense of "rogue, rascal" firstrecorded c.1200. 
Magna Carta Libertatum, commonly called Magna Carta, is a charter agreed to by King John of England at Runnymede,
near Windsor, on 15 June 1215
Its lasting iconic value as the foundation of so many world democracies lies in the power of an idea -
a principle, which states that nobody, including the King, is above the law of the land.

Great Charter of 1216
Although the Charter of 1215 was a failure as a peace treaty, it was resurrected under the new government of the young Henry III as a way of drawing support away from the rebel faction.

In playing cards, "thejack," 1560s.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02- ... risky-bank

rapscallion 1690s, alteration of rascallion(1640s), a fanciful elaboration of rascal(q.v.). 
It is the parallel term of now-extinc trampallion (1590s), from M.E. ramp (n.)
"ill behaved woman" (mid-15c.), which is probably connected to the definition ofromp 
in Johnson's Dictionary (1755) 
as "arude, awkward, boisterous, untaught girl."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djuNYdheD7k

The point that morals matter and time indicates actual sides matter. After world war two the Syrian got infested with Nazi.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/nazi-war-cri ... 23415.html
Further reading convey the depravity's of the regimes adaptations of slaughters.

The Euroland is infested https://www.disclose.tv/the-kalergi-pla ... ump-311329

And the actual point is not all Eurolanders are bad. Same as the duped Russians who support the maniacs in Syria for the obvious Port.

On a gut level they know these horrors.

Ask any one who survived these human derelicts then, or now as over 400,000 who have been recently butchered seek solace.

Fact is over 25 percent are slaughtered women and children.

Fight it where it is before it gets here. Time the Branches here stand since we are warned the Branch can be removed.

I find the irony fitting on the financial product since how long did it take for sound judgement on our shores.

Time for the Office here to get its House in order and get the DOJ off it ever loving ass.

"It is not that government has lacked information needed to fix the problem. It is institutionally incapable of bringing about the desired result, since the principles of profit and loss, private property and contract, enterprise and entrepreneurship, do not exist in government. Any Government operates with an eye to its own short-term survival, and those of its connected interest groups, and nothing else." Mises

Get to work. We do not need the Trump card. Family first.

https://original.antiwar.com/buchanan/2 ... yrias-war/

[Higgenbotham]

Sense of "rogue, rascal" 

Stephen Hopkins: Ah, Ben! I want you to see some cards I'd gone and had printed up. Oughta save everybody here a lot of time and effort, considering the epidemic of bad disposition that's been going on around here lately. 'Dear Sir, you are without any doubt, a rogue, a rascal, a villain, a thief, a scoundrel, and a mean, dirty, stinking, sniveling, sneaking, pimping, pocket-picking, thrice double-damned no-good son of a bitch.' and you sign your name - what do you think?
Benjamin Franklin: I'll take a dozen, right now.

From "1776"

[John]

> From Vanderbilt University professor Arthur Demarest, who has
> studied the collapse of 18 civilizations:

>> These events illustrate just one of the patterns characteristic
>> of the collapse of civilizations that are now evident in our
>> modern society. This particular one is called “hypercoherence.”
>> This risk is well known by the IT community, but the public
>> aren’t catching on. Hypercoherence is when a society’s systems
>> and its regions become so well integrated and interconnected
>> that when there is a problem or failure in one part of the
>> system, it brings the whole system down. In the case of
>> civilizations or complex societies, such hypercoherence has been
>> involved as one of multiple factors in the decline, upheaval, or
>> collapse of economies, states or empires or even of whole
>> civilizations. By itself hypercoherence would normally lead to
>> a crisis that often could be overcome. However, if such a
>> hypercoherence crisis is combined with some of the other common
>> dangerous weaknesses, it can lead to total disintegration. Our
>> modern global interlinked world already has many such additional
>> weaknesses like shorter and shorter cycles of thinking to judge
>> political leaders, to demand profits of CEO’s, and to plan
>> business or government decisions...

> https://www.arthurdemarest.com/hypercoh ... h-airways/

> He doesn't mention "Just In Time" inventories here, but it's the
> same issue. The reason it happens is because it's cheaper to use
> JIT and in order to compete every company has to use it. So it's
> a race to the bottom until the inevitable collapse
> happens.

The problem with Demarest's analysis is that it succumbs to the
fallacy that correlation does not mean causation. The fact that 18
collapsed civilizations all exhibit hypercoherence does not mean that
either collapse causes hypercoherence or that hypercoherence causes
collapse.

We know that collapsed civilizations almost always occur during
generational Crisis eras, so let's explore the possibility that
hypercoherence also always occurs during generational Crisis eras.

During a generational Unraveling era, factional divisions are strongly
discouraged, and cooperation is strongly encouraged. This would
encourage hypercoherence, or what we might call a "JIT economy."

Let's take your example of spare parts. In a JIT economy, a big spare
parts inventory isn't needed, since someone will always help out with
a spare part in a pinch, even a competitor. There's usually a lot of
money around, so everybody's happy to help out. At this time, the
leaders are Heroes and Prophets from the last crisis war (WW II), so
they understand the dangers of how screwing other people can lead to
disaster, and they run their lives that way. The JIT economy is
extremely resilient because if a problem arises, then there's always
someone nearby who can bail you out.

Then the Nomads (Gen-Xers) rise to power as the society enters a
Crisis, and they have absolutely no clue how dangerous screwing other
people can be. It still amazes me (and Greenspan said essentially the
same thing) that an entire generation of Gen-X bankers decided to
screw everyone else and sell tens of trillions of dollars in
fraudulent subprime securities.

The sudden rise of Nomads is a disaster for the JIT economy. Nomads
believe that everything is automatic, and takes care of itself if
there's a problem. And that's true if everyone is willing to
cooperate. But Nomads are unwilling to cooperate, and so the JIT
economy starts falling apart. If there's a problem at a point of
failure (e.g., a spare part is needed), then you can no longer count
on someone helping you out. In fact, what you can count on is someone
taking advantage of the situation to screw you.

So imagine society as a graph where each person and organization is a
node, and lines connect the nodes to show relationships. In a JIT
economy, each node is only as strong as it's protected by the nodes
it's connected to. In an Unraveling era, it's well protected, and the
economy is resilient in a crisis. In a Crisis era, each node is very
weak. The resilience disappears, and the economy is in danger of
collapsing in a crisis, as Demarest suggests.

You've posted many examples of this. For me, the financial crisis is
a primary example.

And the primary IT example is Y2K vs HealthCare.gov. Most Gen-Xer
programmers have absolutely no clue what Y2K was about. They think it
was a made-up crisis by Silents, when all that was needed was to
change a few fields -- and Gen-Xers know how to do that, because they
learned how to do it in Programming 1.01. Gen-Xers have absolutely no
idea that the reason there was no crisis after 1/1/2000 was because of
a huge $700 billion worldwide effort remediating software. Gen-Xers
believe that it all took care of itself.

Contrast that to Healthcare.gov, which I've written about many times.
Just as Gen-Xers in finance created fraudulent synthetic securities,
Gen-Xers in IT created fraudulent applications for Healthcare.gov,
with the result that the project was the greatest disaster in IT
history.

[Higgenbotham]

We know that collapsed civilizations almost always occur during
generational Crisis eras, so let's explore the possibility that
hypercoherence also always occurs during generational Crisis eras.

During a generational Unraveling era, factional divisions are strongly
discouraged, and cooperation is strongly encouraged. This would
encourage hypercoherence, or what we might call a "JIT economy."

Let's take your example of spare parts. In a JIT economy, a big spare
parts inventory isn't needed, since someone will always help out with
a spare part in a pinch, even a competitor. There's usually a lot of
money around, so everybody's happy to help out. At this time, the
leaders are Heroes and Prophets from the last crisis war (WW II), so
they understand the dangers of how screwing other people can lead to
disaster, and they run their lives that way. The JIT economy is
extremely resilient because if a problem arises, then there's always
someone nearby who can bail you out.

Then the Nomads (Gen-Xers) rise to power as the society enters a
Crisis, and they have absolutely no clue how dangerous screwing other
people can be. It still amazes me (and Greenspan said essentially the
same thing) that an entire generation of Gen-X bankers decided to
screw everyone else and sell tens of trillions of dollars in
fraudulent subprime securities.

The sudden rise of Nomads is a disaster for the JIT economy. Nomads
believe that everything is automatic, and takes care of itself if
there's a problem. And that's true if everyone is willing to
cooperate. But Nomads are unwilling to cooperate, and so the JIT
economy starts falling apart. If there's a problem at a point of
failure (e.g., a spare part is needed), then you can no longer count
on someone helping you out. In fact, what you can count on is someone
taking advantage of the situation to screw you.

So imagine society as a graph where each person and organization is a
node, and lines connect the nodes to show relationships. In a JIT
economy, each node is only as strong as it's protected by the nodes
it's connected to. In an Unraveling era, it's well protected, and the
economy is resilient in a crisis. In a Crisis era, each node is very
weak. The resilience disappears, and the economy is in danger of
collapsing in a crisis, as Demarest suggests.

You've posted many examples of this. For me, the financial crisis is
a primary example.

And the primary IT example is Y2K vs HealthCare.gov. Most Gen-Xer
programmers have absolutely no clue what Y2K was about. They think it
was a made-up crisis by Silents, when all that was needed was to
change a few fields -- and Gen-Xers know how to do that, because they
learned how to do it in Programming 1.01. Gen-Xers have absolutely no
idea that the reason there was no crisis after 1/1/2000 was because of
a huge $700 billion worldwide effort remediating software. Gen-Xers
believe that it all took care of itself.

Contrast that to Healthcare.gov, which I've written about many times.
Just as Gen-Xers in finance created fraudulent synthetic securities,
Gen-Xers in IT created fraudulent applications for Healthcare.gov,
with the result that the project was the greatest disaster in IT
history.

I think you've made a good generational archetype based case for cooperation peaking during an unraveling period and the decline in cooperation contributing to the crisis. Gen Xers would be the archetype who would withdraw cooperation for reasons no other archetype would seriously consider such as collapsing a competitor to exact revenge or profit from shorting the stock. We are witnessing that kind of dangerous and unethical behavior now, where false rumors are being used to drive down stock prices and profit from shorting. Demarest's analysis is incomplete, as would be anybody's including my own because we all lack knowledge and experience as well as overweight experience we have (which is why I urge every person to adopt their own view of the future).

What I think could add to his comments would be an analysis of the degree of hypercoherence that exists today versus previous civilizations or previous crisis periods. The comments I can recall making regarding that on this thread are:

• Control by large corporations of finance, retail, manufacturing and food production and distribution (lack of Main Street businesses) which reduces redundancy and margins (Amazon is the best example I can think of)
  
  Coordinated worldwide Central Bank interventions which have created an unprecedented "all one market" bubble with no important outlier economy to provide redundancy
  
  Complex worldwide supply chains based on electronically enabled financial transactions (where, to repeat an example another analyst provided, aluminum is mined in one country, refined in another, the can produced in another, the soda made in yet another)
  
  Diminishing marginal returns due to factors such as increasing cost of energy production which make redundancy in inventory less affordable

[CH86]

We know that collapsed civilizations almost always occur during
generational Crisis eras, so let's explore the possibility that
hypercoherence also always occurs during generational Crisis eras.

During a generational Unraveling era, factional divisions are strongly
discouraged, and cooperation is strongly encouraged. This would
encourage hypercoherence, or what we might call a "JIT economy."

Let's take your example of spare parts. In a JIT economy, a big spare
parts inventory isn't needed, since someone will always help out with
a spare part in a pinch, even a competitor. There's usually a lot of
money around, so everybody's happy to help out. At this time, the
leaders are Heroes and Prophets from the last crisis war (WW II), so
they understand the dangers of how screwing other people can lead to
disaster, and they run their lives that way. The JIT economy is
extremely resilient because if a problem arises, then there's always
someone nearby who can bail you out.

Then the Nomads (Gen-Xers) rise to power as the society enters a
Crisis, and they have absolutely no clue how dangerous screwing other
people can be. It still amazes me (and Greenspan said essentially the
same thing) that an entire generation of Gen-X bankers decided to
screw everyone else and sell tens of trillions of dollars in
fraudulent subprime securities.

The sudden rise of Nomads is a disaster for the JIT economy. Nomads
believe that everything is automatic, and takes care of itself if
there's a problem. And that's true if everyone is willing to
cooperate. But Nomads are unwilling to cooperate, and so the JIT
economy starts falling apart. If there's a problem at a point of
failure (e.g., a spare part is needed), then you can no longer count
on someone helping you out. In fact, what you can count on is someone
taking advantage of the situation to screw you.

So imagine society as a graph where each person and organization is a
node, and lines connect the nodes to show relationships. In a JIT
economy, each node is only as strong as it's protected by the nodes
it's connected to. In an Unraveling era, it's well protected, and the
economy is resilient in a crisis. In a Crisis era, each node is very
weak. The resilience disappears, and the economy is in danger of
collapsing in a crisis, as Demarest suggests.

You've posted many examples of this. For me, the financial crisis is
a primary example.

And the primary IT example is Y2K vs HealthCare.gov. Most Gen-Xer
programmers have absolutely no clue what Y2K was about. They think it
was a made-up crisis by Silents, when all that was needed was to
change a few fields -- and Gen-Xers know how to do that, because they
learned how to do it in Programming 1.01. Gen-Xers have absolutely no
idea that the reason there was no crisis after 1/1/2000 was because of
a huge $700 billion worldwide effort remediating software. Gen-Xers
believe that it all took care of itself.

Contrast that to Healthcare.gov, which I've written about many times.
Just as Gen-Xers in finance created fraudulent synthetic securities,
Gen-Xers in IT created fraudulent applications for Healthcare.gov,
with the result that the project was the greatest disaster in IT
history.

I think you've made a good generational archetype based case for cooperation peaking during an unraveling period and the decline in cooperation contributing to the crisis. Gen Xers would be the archetype who would withdraw cooperation for reasons no other archetype would seriously consider such as collapsing a competitor to exact revenge or profit from shorting the stock. We are witnessing that kind of dangerous and unethical behavior now, where false rumors are being used to drive down stock prices and profit from shorting. Demarest's analysis is incomplete, as would be anybody's including my own because we all lack knowledge and experience as well as overweight experience we have (which is why I urge every person to adopt their own view of the future).

What I think could add to his comments would be an analysis of the degree of hypercoherence that exists today versus previous civilizations or previous crisis periods. The comments I can recall making regarding that on this thread are:

• Control by large corporations of finance, retail, manufacturing and food production and distribution (lack of Main Street businesses) which reduces redundancy and margins (Amazon is the best example I can think of)
  
  Coordinated worldwide Central Bank interventions which have created an unprecedented "all one market" bubble with no important outlier economy to provide redundancy
  
  Complex worldwide supply chains based on electronically enabled financial transactions (where, to repeat an example another analyst provided, aluminum is mined in one country, refined in another, the can produced in another, the soda made in yet another)
  
  Diminishing marginal returns due to factors such as increasing cost of energy production which make redundancy in inventory less affordable

Once again Boomers refuse to take responsibility for creating the problems and creating the mess. It is boomers who run the government, boomers who run the economy, boomers who currently run the federal reserve. And this has been the case for the past 25+ years. Boomers refuse to take responsibility for anything they do and expect young people to clean up the mess and thank boomers for breathing. Boomers are extremely selfish, their defining characteristic as a generation.

[John]

> Once again Boomers refuse to take responsibility for creating the
> problems and creating the mess. It is boomers who run the
> government, boomers who run the economy, boomers who currently run
> the federal reserve. And this has been the case for the past 25+
> years. Boomers refuse to take responsibility for anything they do
> and expect young people to clean up the mess and thank boomers for
> breathing. Boomers are extremely selfish, their defining
> characteristic as a generation.

I can assure you that it's the criminals in your generation that have
screwed the rest of us. If Boomers made a mistake, it's because we
didn't realize in time how evil you and the crooks in your generation
were.