Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

John wrote:
Guest wrote: > This is extremely bold and brave analysis. This site has never
> been afraid to go out on a limb. Excellent.
Thanks for the compliment, but it turns out that bold and brave
analyses don't make you popular. (See Cassandra curse)
Actually, Socrates comes to mind...

..he was "bold and brave",.. and Greek.


Dadd nabbit, John-O,.. you need to "escape" to somewhere! How do you feel about livin' on the beach in the Caribbean?

..if I get this damned teeny-boat built in the next couple years, we'll be glad to ferry you out to the Marquesas. Just let me know. :) Aloha dude. Mahalo. <shaka!>

John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

Guest wrote: > This is extremely bold and brave analysis. This site has never
> been afraid to go out on a limb. Excellent.
John wrote: > Thanks for the compliment, but it turns out that bold and brave
> analyses don't make you popular. (See Cassandra curse)
FishbellykanakaDude wrote: > Actually, Socrates comes to mind...

> ..he was "bold and brave",.. and Greek.

> Dadd nabbit, John-O,.. you need to "escape" to somewhere! How do
> you feel about livin' on the beach in the Caribbean?

> ..if I get this damned teeny-boat built in the next couple years,
> we'll be glad to ferry you out to the Marquesas. Just let me
> know. :) Aloha dude. Mahalo. <shaka!>

Wait .... I've forgotten ..... could you remind me:

How did Socrates die?

User avatar
Tom Mazanec
Posts: 4199
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

Indian air strikes will not stop Pakistani terrorist attacks:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... ir-attacks
What can America do in world's most dangerous crisis:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... -the-peace
Tensions growing in South Asia:
http://time.com/5538756/india-pakistan- ... irstrikes/
New York Times on crisis:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/26/worl ... rikes.html
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 27-Feb-2019 India-Pakistan conflict escalates with warplane clash

For the first time since 1971, Pakistani and Indian warplanes have
clashed, resulting in at least one plane being shot down. Pakistan’s
Civil Aviation Authority says it has shut its airspace across the
country to all commercial flights, resulting in numerous flight
cancelations and inconveniencing passenges.


Kashmir continues to be the most dangerous place in the world today,
and the place where the probability of tit-for-tat escalation leading
to a major war is highest, at the current point in time.

Image
  • Border wall: Indian Border Security Force soldiers patrol
    along the fenced border with Pakistan in the Ranbir Singh Pura sector
    near Jammu on Tuesday. (Mukesh Gupta/Reuters)
As we've been reporting for weeks, the current round of tit-for-tat
attacks began on February 14, when the Pakistan-based terrorist group
Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) claimed credit for the worst terror attack in
Indian-controlled Kashmir in decades, occurring on February 14. Over
40 Indian security forces were killed when an explosive-laden vehicle
(VBIED) crashed into bus in a convoy of Indian forces and exploded.
This was the worst terrorist attack in Kashmir in years.

Then on Tuesday (26-Feb), Indian warplanes struck across the Line of
Control (LoC) into the Pakistan-controlled region of Kashmir. This
was the first Indian warplane strike inside Pakistan since the massive
1971 India-Pakistan war.

There's still some confusion about what was actually struck, with
India claiming that hundreds of JeM militants were killed in their
training camp, while Pakistan says there were no casualties, and that
the attack was "reckless and fictitious." Pakistan vowed to retaliate
at a place and time of its choosing.

On Wednesday, there was an actual clash between Indian and Pakistani
warplanes, for the first time since 1971. Both sides claimed to have
shot down enemy warplanes, but the only thing that's been confirmed is
that an Indian warplane was shot down, and the pilot is in custody in
Pakistan.

However, the details of who was shot down, though important, are not
nearly as important as the fact that the situation appears to be
escalating, almost on a daily basis.

According to a retired Indian diplomat Lalit Mansingh, India’s policy
of strategic restraint “is no longer.” Pakistan continues to say that
it will retaliate.

This is a good time to remind readers of the Marco Polo Bridge
incident that started World War II in 1937. The Marco Polo Bridge is
about 15 km south of Beijing in China, and was so named because Marco
Polo praised the bridge in the 13th century.
  • A small group of Japanese soldiers, stationed near the bridge, took
    a roll call and found one soldier missing.
  • The Japanese accused Chinese soldiers, also stationed near the
    bridge in the city of Wanping, of abducting the Japanese soldier. A
    brief clash was won by the Japanese.
  • The two sides negotiated a settlement, but both sides brought in
    reinforcements.
  • Within a month there was full-scale war, leading to the Japanese
    "Rape of Nanking" shortly thereafter.
And, of course, we always have to mention that the Japanese soldier
missed roll call because he went into the woods to pee, and lost his
way back.

So it's not so wrong to say that World War II was triggered because
someone unexpectedly had to pee. And it's not so far-fetched to
wonder if the situation in Kashmir will lead to World War III.



--- India, Pakistan down each other's jets as Kashmir conflict heats
up
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-india ... QG0IQ?il=0
(Reuters)

--- Kashmir / Fears rise amid India-Pakistan escalation
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-47383889
(BBC)

--- The Latest: Germany urges dialogue between India, Pakistan
https://www.apnews.com/726be65d13bb4c058cec1a4d9e2fa043
(AP)

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 311#p44311
Sent (STAMP: Wednesday, February 27, 2019, 10:11:25 190227)

User avatar
Tom Mazanec
Posts: 4199
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

There are about 300 nuclear weapons on hair trigger in South Asia, most probably larger than the ones used on Japan:
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2019/02/h ... r-war.html
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

John wrote:
Guest wrote: > This is extremely bold and brave analysis. This site has never
> been afraid to go out on a limb. Excellent.
John wrote: > Thanks for the compliment, but it turns out that bold and brave
> analyses don't make you popular. (See Cassandra curse)
FishbellykanakaDude wrote: > Actually, Socrates comes to mind...

> ..he was "bold and brave",.. and Greek.

> Dadd nabbit, John-O,.. you need to "escape" to somewhere! How do
> you feel about livin' on the beach in the Caribbean?

> ..if I get this damned teeny-boat built in the next couple years,
> we'll be glad to ferry you out to the Marquesas. Just let me
> know. :) Aloha dude. Mahalo. <shaka!>

Wait .... I've forgotten ..... could you remind me:

How did Socrates die?
..uh,.. <whistling a short 4 note riff> er,.. <clears throat> ummm,..

"Socrates realized the Oracle was correct; while so-called wise men thought themselves wise and yet were not, he himself knew he was not wise at all, which, paradoxically, made him the wiser one since he was the only person aware of his own ignorance.

"Socrates defended his role as a gadfly until the end: at his trial, when Socrates was asked to propose his own punishment, he suggested a wage paid by the government and free dinners for the rest of his life instead, to finance the time he spent as Athens's benefactor.

..but he got:

Image

John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 27-Feb-2019 Nationalism and xenophobia rising rapidly in India and Pakistan

According to the BBC, Indian TV channels have abandoned attempts at
partiality, and are calling the Pakistanis "dastardly," and worse. At
the same time, there are growing anti-India protests in Pakistan, and
Pakistan has even banned showing any moviews containing Indian
content.

Image
  • People burn portraits of Indian Prime Minister Narendra
    Modi during an anti-Indian protest in Lahore, Pakistan, 27
    February 2019.
There is a lot of international pressure on both sides to tamp down
the threats, with Britain, China, the US, and many other countries
calling on both sides to show restraint.

This could well result in some sort of negotiated settlement. But
recall that in the Marco Polo Bridge incident that I summarized above,
the negotiated peace broke down quickly, and there was full scale war
within a few weeks.

One more thing: There are three major separatist terror groups in
Kashmir: Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) is a relatively new indigenous
jihadist group, and is responsible for last week's massive terror
incident. Hizbul Mujahedeen (HM) is an indigenous, home-grown
jihadist group that became considerably more violent after the July 8
2016 death of HM leader Burhan Wani in a gunfight with the Indian
army. Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) is a Pakistan-based terrorist group that
was formed in the 1990s by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence
(ISI) agency to fight India in the disputed regions of Kashmir and
Jammu.

If any one of these separatist groups launches a new terror attack in
the current highly nationalistic time, that could be the trigger that
causes India to launch a military action or even declare war.

A war in Kashmir has been building since the Partition War ended
in 1949. Four generations later, the time is coming.

--- Pakistan Bans Indian Films as Asian Neighbors Talk of War
https://variety.com/2019/film/asia/paki ... 203150699/
(Variety)

User avatar
Tom Mazanec
Posts: 4199
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

Tanks move to border of Pakistan/India:
https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1100784365917925377
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 28-Feb-2019 Report: Trump blindsided Kim Jong-un at summit

According to a report on the Fox Business Network this morning,
Donald Trump blindsided Kim Jong-un by revealing intelligence
that America knows a lot more about North Korea's nuclear
and missile development sites than Kim had previously revealed.

According to the report, Kim had hoped to bluff his way through a
commitment to close the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center in
exchange for an immediate end to all sanctions.

Kim Jong-un appears to be replaying the same fraudulent script that
his father Kim Jong-il followed in 2008. At that time, the North
demolished a 60-foot-tall cooling tower to prove that it was ending
its nuclear development programs. In reaction, the Bush
administration agreed to remove all sanctions. As soon as they were
removed, North Korea immediately and openly resumed its nuclear and
ballistic missile development. They had completely defrauded the
United States and the world.

So Trump undoubtedly reminded Kim of Bush's experience, and gave
that as a reason why immediate lifting of sanctions was impossible.

But the report says that Trump went much further by calling
on John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, who were present at the meeting
and had thoroughly prepared Trump for the meeting, to reveal
intelligence that America knew a lot more about Kim's nuclear
and ballistic missile weapons programs than the North believed.

Trump was able to say that Kim had to do more than promise to
denuclearize. He would have to provide a step-by-step plan
for how it would be accomplished. This would also include
a step-by-step plan for how sanctions would be lifted simultaneously.

Kim did not want to provide a step-by-step plan to denuclearize. He
simply wanted all sanctions lifted, with a promise to denuclearize, as
his father did. So Trump canceled the planned lunch and joint news
conference and walked away.

Trump was also sending a message to China that he's prepared to walk
away from the China trade negotiations.

Left on the table was the proposal to sign a treaty with South Korea
and China to officially end the 1950s Korean War, which ended with an
armistace/ceasefire.


--- Trump cuts short North Korea summit after dispute over sanctions:
'Sometimes you have to walk'
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump- ... -to-summit
(Fox News)

--- Related:

** 5-Nov-18 World View -- US and South Korea resume some military marine drills, despite North's objections
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e181105



********** UPDATE:

The following article contains a little more information on how the
Trump team blindsided the Kim team:

--- Trump-Kim summit was cut short after North Korea demanded an end to sanctions
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/28/white-h ... edule.html
(CNBC)

User avatar
Tom Mazanec
Posts: 4199
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

Last edited by Tom Mazanec on Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 56 guests