Financial topics

[vincecate]

On the basis of "gut feel" I strongly suspect that Wednesday 29th April was the secondary peak. There's no science to this "gut feel"except that its a bit above the 61.8 retracement and Thursday seems to be losing a bullish bravado that drove Wednesday. OK so give it one and a half to three weeks for the secondary crash; 11 or 18 May. BUT reality might be sinking into investors heads faster than I think and could fester around the brain causing acute discomfort this weekend and create a crash Monday 4 May. Lets wait and see!

I think the Friday May 8th unemployment report will be over 20% and people will contemplate that over the weekend. So Monday May 11 is my guess.
But maybe the 18th. Really don't think this can stay up too much longer.

All of 2008 the US lost 2.6 million jobs. In the last 6 weeks it has lost over 30 million jobs. In only 6 weeks 2020 has reached an all-time record and it has many more weeks to go. At some point people are going to realize that this situation is really bad.

For comparison, the yearly 2.6 mil loss for 2008 looked really bad. Article from Jan 2009:
Worst year for jobs since '45
Annual loss biggest since end of World War II. Unemployment rate rises to 7.2%.
The hemorrhaging of American jobs accelerated at a record pace at the end of 2008, bringing the year's total job losses to 2.6 million or the highest level in more than six decades.

A sobering U.S. Labor Department jobs report Friday showed the economy lost 524,000 jobs in December and 1.9 million in the year's final four months, after the credit crisis began in September.

The unemployment rate rose to 7.2% last month from 6.7% in November - its highest rate since January 1993.
https://money.cnn.com/2009/01/09/news/e ... ckDAme2pWI

[aeden]

As CTAs flipped yesterday from "-69% Short" signal to the current "+100% Long,"
they bought a total of $36.8BN across Emini futures yesterday. t

Investors Aren't Chasing The Rip, They're Waiting To Buy The Dip.
E-Mini S&P500 has soared 34% in 25 sessions to a near kiss of the daily 200EMA.

Bias flip soon I guess H. Alot of noise and disinformation brewing another painful lesson.

[vincecate]

Federal Reserve to lend additional $1 trillion a day to large banks
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/fe ... plYs2lM_4g

In the 1970s the average P/E ratio was much smaller because inflation and interest rates were higher. I think the change in P/E happens faster than the inflation, so we will get a crash in stock prices, but for some reason my inflation hedges have been doing very well so far.

[Higgenbotham]

S7P 500 is 2923 as I write this. My hunch is that this week will be the top somewhere in the 2900's. So if this week is the top that makes May 18 a good possibility for the crash

Kind of incredible that while the world economy is shut down the S&P has gone up 30% from low. I just don't think printing money will fix things that well or devalue the currency before people need to sell to buy food. Long term the rate they are printing must devalue the currency, but I don't think it will hold off the crash. Exciting ride.

Feels like a short squeeze blow off today.

On the basis of "gut feel" I strongly suspect that Wednesday 29th April was the secondary peak. There's no science to this "gut feel"except that its a bit above the 61.8 retracement and Thursday seems to be losing a bullish bravado that drove Wednesday. OK so give it one and a half to three weeks for the secondary crash; 11 or 18 May. BUT reality might be sinking into investors heads faster than I think and could fester around the brain causing acute discomfort this weekend and create a crash Monday 4 May. Lets wait and see!

Interesting that many "experts" were bullish yesterday, but you guys were not!

Today was tricky because Tesla and Microsoft gave good reports after the close yesterday, while the unemployment claims this morning were lower than they have been in past weeks, but there was no bullish follow through.

I've been able to hold onto my 6 lots today and also trade a bit out ("Real P&L" column which in this case means "Realized Profit"). My break even on the 6 lots is up to 2709, which is higher than I originally thought this rally could carry. By making some "Realized Profit" each day that gives me a cushion against which to add an extra lot here and there that I can hold if the downtrend continues.

[aeden]

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=UNaJnmYr

[vincecate]

"Sell in May and go away." Bet it is good advice this year.

[aeden]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/was-f ... ma-craters

[vincecate]

When Tesla stock was about $420 Musk tweeted that it was "so high", a reference to the pot people holding 4:20 as a special time.

Today when it was about $840 he tweeted the stock was "too high" and he meant "two high", but that typo caused the stock to drop 10% as people did not get the joke. Probably get him some more lawsuits too. Probably he should not tweet when he is high.

Crazy times.

[Higgenbotham]

I've been able to hold onto my 6 lots today and also trade a bit out ("Real P&L" column which in this case means "Realized Profit"). My break even on the 6 lots is up to 2709.

Today I moved my break even from 2709 to 2715 by trading some points out of the market.

This week fooled practically everyone except for the bears on this forum. As noted, I started the week short 5 with a break even of 2643. I will continue to add if the market can move down, and especially if it starts to crash.

Today's results:

[richard5za]

I've been able to hold onto my 6 lots today and also trade a bit out ("Real P&L" column which in this case means "Realized Profit"). My break even on the 6 lots is up to 2709.

Today I moved my break even from 2709 to 2715 by trading some points out of the market.

This week fooled practically everyone except for the bears on this forum. As noted, I started the week short 5 with a break even of 2643. I will continue to add if the market can move down, and especially if it starts to crash.

Today's results:

I suspect that the bears on this forum may well have called the secondary top for last week; and if so when is the secondary crash? And will it be a generational event or does the secondary crash precede the main disaster? I think its quite possible that the secondary crash goes to S&P 1800 and then back up to say 2400, and then the main event happens, My bets for the secondary crash for the following weeks are: May 4 - 20% probability; May 11 - 30% probability; May 18 - 50% probability,