Dakardii's topic

[Cool Breeze]

Now it's just tit for tat. Let's drop it?
Cryptos will go to the moon with the other financials and the collapse. It's part of the game. Getting out with anything will be the priority. Especially with your life.

Higster, how far gone are you on the topic of "inevitable WWIII cataclysm" that I see so often around here?

FullMoon, your prediction is a possibility, but low %

What is your take on the coming "crisis war" quality wise? How bad will it be?

[John]

** 26-Jan-2021 World View: Admitting I'm wrong

> John, you should know what I'm gonna say about BTC and being
> wrong, because a) I'm honest and b) there's only one way to go. So
> I don't mind talking about it --- but I've exposed that you are
> still stuck in unfalsifiable thinking --- and you don't like that
> I point that out. Time to come clean.

Oh cut the crap. You're almost as bad as Butler. You've been posting
garbage like this ever since you became a member of the forum. I
don't know what you think you're accomplishing, but all it does is
make me want to ignore you, because it means you're just full of crap,
which is what I've been saying about you almost since day one.

> The answer of when I'm wrong about BTC is when it is an utter
> failure (your prediction), which is obvious. Banning it is not an
> utter failure, since portability and game theory make it a game
> changer from a world wide mover point of view. If I can get value
> elsewhere, and easily, it is a winner. And a winner it shall
> be.

OK, I'll answer this question, since I've answered it many times
before now on a number of related subjects. So this is nothing new.

The first time I answered a question of this type was in 2004, when
Mike Alexander said (paraphrasing): "You can never be wrong. You're
predicting a stock market crash, and if it doesn't occur, you can just
say that it just hasn't happened yet. So you can never be wrong."

I answered (paraphrasing): "I'm predicting that there will be a
financial crisis, including a stock market crash at some point. The
specific prediction is that public debt will keep increasing to the
point where it becomes unsustainable, and that's when the financial
crisis will occur. If public debt ever starts decreasing, then I will
have to admit that I'm wrong."

I often refer to the old saying, "If something can't go on forever,
then it won't." And increasing public debt can't go on forever.

So even though I made that prediction in 2004, and even though there
hasn't yet been a major financial crisis, the prediction is still true
(or, as I like to say, "trending true") because public debt has been
increasing steadily since 2004.

When US debt was at $20 trillion, I was joking that the government
might as well keep adding to the debt, since there's going to be a
global financial crisis and a world war, and then it probably won't
make any difference whether the US debt is $20 trillion or $22
trillion.

Well today, US debt is at $27 trillion, and the Democrats are about to
add another $2 trillion. So I guess I might as well amend my previous
joke to say that it probably won't matter if public debt is $27
trillion or $29 trillion or $50 trillion.

When the financial crisis and world war occur, the value of bitcoin
will crash to zero or near-zero.

If US debt starts to decrease from $27 trillion to, say $15 trillion
or even $20 trillion, then I'll have to admit I'm wrong. But that
will never happen.

The Chinese Communists are on a trend line of becoming increasingly
horrific war criminals in a number of areas. This can't go on
forever, and the prediction is that this will lead to world war. If
the Chinese Communist Party suddenly changes direction, gives up its
claims to the South China Sea, stops enslaving Uighurs and frees them
from concentration camps, stops jailing pro-democracy activists in
Hong Kong, stops claiming that it owns Taiwan, stops treating the rest
of the world as barbarians or donkeys, starts acting like a
responsible part of the international community -- then I'll have to
admit I'm wrong. But that will never happen.

If the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza all change direction and
agree that they can coexist with a Jewish Israel, then I'll have to
admit I'm wrong. But that will never happen.

[Higgenbotham]

You gave an honest response in my opinion.

Thanks for the post, I enjoyed it because it was genuine. To clarify just one more thing, I am not superior, nor have I said that I was. My posts either demonstrate a command of the matter at hand, or they do not. Of course, others who are reading (if this is the case) can decide.

A possible scenario I foresee will be that BTC will be an asset for those who are in fact at an elevated, or separated, status due to the fact that the plebs will have to deal with a digital dollar that is manipulated even more by the US (or whichever) gov't. That's why your meager definition of necessities allows you wiggle room enough to never admit it. The problem with your answer is that BTC could be a phenomenally important and advantageous asset class, but you still won't admit that you were wrong if you get to eat bugs and survive? Nobody is buying that. But I have my answer.

OK, good, because I felt my post required some clarity, as I rushed over some topics and may have created confusion in some areas as to what I really meant to say. I'm glad that clarity is not needed because it is tedious.

Regarding your second paragraph, I'll just quote something along those lines and comment on it.

I think that we're going to see eventually a series of bankruptcies. And I think that the rise in the interest rate is probably the fatal sign which is going to ignite a derivatives crisis that is going to bring down the derivatives system. There is something like a quadrillion of derivatives and most of them are interest rate derivatives. The spiking of the interest rate in the United States may set that off. And I think that what is going to happen in the world is that eventually we're going to come to a moment where there's going to be massive bankruptcies around the world and what is going to be left when the dust settles is gold and some people are going to have it and some people are not. And then the problem will be to hold onto what you've got. Because it's not going to be a very pleasant world. That's what I see coming, my friend.

--Hugo Salinas Price (transcribed from the link above)

So let's say that the world that Hugo Salinas Price described a few years back is what actually happens with bitcoin taking the place of gold in his scenario, similar to yours. The question is whether, under that scenario, I aspire to be a part of the elite group that is separated due to their ownership of gold or bitcoin. The answer to that question is actually no, I have no such aspirations. I think there are plenty of posts in this forum to demonstrate that. My mentality is one that's pretty skewed toward survival and not much more, with independence from and separating myself from the elites being a high priority.

Of course, that's a separate issue from whether, under that scenario, I would admit that I was wrong about bitcoin. What I can envision under that scenario is there would be a brief time that would come where I would be hungry, exhausted, uncomfortable due to the elements, etc., and in my extreme discomfort would say, dammit, I wish I had listened to Cool Breeze and Vince Cate and gotten some bitcoin. I say that because I've been in similar situations after quitting the security of corporate or government jobs, but only very briefly. I was telling somebody just a little while ago that a little known consequence of braving the elements in the far north during the winter was needing to use my left hand to get my right hand into my pants pocket because it was too painful to stick my right hand directly into my pocket for 3 months out of the year because it was so cracked and bloody from working in the cold. I did that for 8 years with no regrets. I would also say I'm better for the experience, and it probably helped me develop the skills and mental toughness that will be needed to survive the upcoming collapse. Age is not on my side this time, though.

[Higgenbotham]

You will keep chanting and pounding your chest as long as bitcoin moves higher (or, in your case, even remains relatively high, as you are exceptionally stubborn and bull-headed).

Price convinces.

But if bitcoin collapses, you will disappear. ***poof*** Just like all emotional gamblers like you do.

Now you are making contingencies because you know that BTC will keep rising. Interesting.

If you can define luck, go ahead. If you can discern a great call from luck, go ahead? People who have command on topics, make predictions, are vindicated ... then denigrated by the salty who can only say some term like "you got lucky" are proven to be the winners they are when the chips fall.

If I need luck I have no hope. You believe with religious fervor that BTC will go to zero, right?

Why would your "luck" idea save me then? I must be blessed by some god-like creature called "Luck!"

Understanding BTC to be the most asymmetric trade of our lifetime implies correct understanding of risk and reward. It is you that is betrayed by Harry Browne's thesis there, since you claim you know the future with certainty that BTC is going to zero. Notice I don't make any such upside claim, just that it is a great asset and I'll be rewarded handsomely. That's why one makes a trade.

You won't short BTC, so guess who the real bloviate-r is? I have skin in the game. You have hollow words on an internet forum, and you make grandiose and seemingly guaranteed claims. I have done no such thing.

"You won't short BTC, so guess who the real bloviate-r is? I have skin in the game."

This part of what you said is absolutely correct, in my opinion. If you don't have a trade on, then any opinion is less meaningful. That's why I post my trades over on the other thread. And when I post them and discuss what I'm doing that is consistent with those posts, it gives the real picture of what my thinking is.

It shows that my thinking is, first of all, that cash will be king. I don't stay out of cash for long. Assets are very risky at this time in my opinion, all of them, including bitcoin or anything else. And something that hasn't been discussed of late, but will be important, is that not all cash is created equal.

It shows that I'm very risk averse by conventional standards. Even if I thought bitcoin would go higher (and I think it is likely that it will before it crashes) I would not be in it at this time.

I also believe that predicting markets accurately gets exponentially more difficult the further one projects in time, except for one thing. All markets will go to zero at some point, we just don't know when (except tangibles like gold, silver, copper, etc., but they will deflate like crazy). But US dollar cash will be the last thing standing. I believe that is close to 100% certain. Of course, I could be wrong about that, but it's what I believe. Not that I like the dollar, as you know. It is a terribly flawed currency at this point in time, thanks in a large part to Ben Bernanke most recently, as noted in the comment regarding the balance sheet.

Having said all that, If someone gets out at the top of the bitcoin bubble (or the silver bubble as I did, so far anyway) it is mostly due to luck. When I sold my silver back in 2011, I had no idea whether it would go to $80 or even higher or not. That's why I asked the old Jewish guy standing next to me.

[FullMoon]

Now it's just tit for tat. Let's drop it?
Cryptos will go to the moon with the other financials and the collapse. It's part of the game. Getting out with anything will be the priority. Especially with your life.

Higster, how far gone are you on the topic of "inevitable WWIII cataclysm" that I see so often around here?

FullMoon, your prediction is a possibility, but low %

What is your take on the coming "crisis war" quality wise? How bad will it be?

Having a homestead that's self sufficient and stocked up with everything you need for the rest of your life is wealth. Then suppliers for anyone who take refuge with you. But me thinks this kind of thinking is foreign to you, Cool. You might not be comfortable outside of"civilization". Maybe you want some kind of"wealth" to procure what others cannot. I doubt that would be anything less than a daily struggle for survival anyway. Being wealthy in a land of impoverished underfed people sounds like what we see in some places already. The crisis won't be resolved without great suffering, enough such that it will be remembered for a long time. It's not hard to see the signs of a truly horrific resolution. There's just too many compounding problems and getting ever more exacerbated as time progresses. Now's the time to prepare. Your best investment is this. You can see the storm before it gets to you. I feel lucky to have the help given and only wish I had started earlier. There's much to learn.

[Higgenbotham]

Now it's just tit for tat. Let's drop it?
Cryptos will go to the moon with the other financials and the collapse. It's part of the game. Getting out with anything will be the priority. Especially with your life.

Higster, how far gone are you on the topic of "inevitable WWIII cataclysm" that I see so often around here?

FullMoon, your prediction is a possibility, but low %

What is your take on the coming "crisis war" quality wise? How bad will it be?

I'm still watching and waiting. I've read all the back and forth here and haven't weighed in because I don't think I have anything worth contributing.

To John's and tim's credit (and possibly others like Trevor), I must admit that my assessment of the odds of a full blown war with China that involves nuclear weapons is increasing rapidly.

I say that for two reasons. One is that the pandemic didn't stop the nation-state war machine from functioning. The other is that there's been no financial crisis big enough to stop the nation-state war machine from functioning.

[John]

** 26-Jan-2021 World View: Ridicule

> I'm still watching and waiting. I've read all the back and forth
> here and haven't weighed in because I don't think I have anything
> worth contributing.

> To John's and tim's credit, I must admit that my assessment of the
> odds of a full blown war with China that involves nuclear weapons
> is increasing rapidly.

> I say that for two reasons. One is that the pandemic didn't stop
> the nation-state war machine from functioning. The other is that
> there's' been no financial crisis big enough to stop the
> nation-state war machine from functioning.

It's such a wonderful situation for me. If I'm wrong, then people
will ridicule me. But if I'm right, then I'll be dead, and I won't be
able to ridicule other people. That sucks.

Anyway, I'm not wrong.

[John]

** 26-Jan-2021 World View: Dystopia

> I'm still watching and waiting. I've read all the back and forth
> here and haven't weighed in because I don't think I have anything
> worth contributing.

> To John's and tim's credit, I must admit that my assessment of the
> odds of a full blown war with China that involves nuclear weapons
> is increasing rapidly.

> I say that for two reasons. One is that the pandemic didn't stop
> the nation-state war machine from functioning. The other is that
> there's' been no financial crisis big enough to stop the
> nation-state war machine from functioning.

Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaait a sec.

Hold on there. Just wait a minute.

You're not sure??? For years you've been predicting a return to the
Middle Ages. I used to joke that your world view was much more
dystopian than mine.

So now you're not sure?

[Higgenbotham]

Having a homestead that's self sufficient and stocked up with everything you need for the rest of your life is wealth. Then suppliers for anyone who take refuge with you. But me thinks this kind of thinking is foreign to you, Cool. You might not be comfortable outside of "civilization". Maybe you want some kind of "wealth" to procure what others cannot. I doubt that would be anything less than a daily struggle for survival anyway. Being wealthy in a land of impoverished underfed people sounds like what we see in some places already. The crisis won't be resolved without great suffering, enough such that it will be remembered for a long time. It's not hard to see the signs of a truly horrific resolution. There's just too many compounding problems and getting ever more exacerbated as time progresses. Now's the time to prepare. Your best investment is this. You can see the storm before it gets to you. I feel lucky to have the help given and only wish I had started earlier. There's much to learn.

Being an elite seems to confer a few advantages now that may continue for a short time but, in my estimation, that time will be brief and unimportant in the big picture. I have a photo of my grandparents taken in 1965 at their farm which shows a hand pump (well), outhouse, windmill, and house (with no indoor plumbing). I'm in the photo drinking well water from a rusty old cup. My Dad told me I drank the water like it was best water I'd ever had. They raised 3 kids on that farm during the Depression and lived to be 88 and 91 years of age. They lived a rich and full life. My Dad always said he was glad to get off the farm because it was a hard life. When the crisis hits with full force, I'd rather be the guy who spent the last 55 years on that farm exactly as it was than an elite in a gated community. The last 55 years was a nice diversion, though.

[Higgenbotham]

** 26-Jan-2021 World View: Dystopia

> I'm still watching and waiting. I've read all the back and forth
> here and haven't weighed in because I don't think I have anything
> worth contributing.

> To John's and tim's credit, I must admit that my assessment of the
> odds of a full blown war with China that involves nuclear weapons
> is increasing rapidly.

> I say that for two reasons. One is that the pandemic didn't stop
> the nation-state war machine from functioning. The other is that
> there's' been no financial crisis big enough to stop the
> nation-state war machine from functioning.

Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaait a sec.

Hold on there. Just wait a minute.

You're not sure??? For years you've been predicting a return to the
Middle Ages. I used to joke that your world view was much more
dystopian than mine.

So now you're not sure?

I guess you could put it that way. So far at least, the things that would need to happen to confirm a collapse into a new dark age have not happened. For example, a pandemic with a serious kill rate (a lot higher than covid-19) would have been needed to break the financial system in the way that I have been predicting. There was a lot of talk last year about supply chains breaking, but nothing serious enough to collapse the system actually happened. I think at that time, I said it would probably be a covid-19 mutation or a different virus that would tip things over this winter, but so far it hasn't happened.

My more specific predictions would be:

• There will be a major global financial panic and crisis. Supply chains will break, resulting in unavailability of critical raw materials and components. Global trade will begin to shut down. As it begins to become apparent that the supply chain linkages are permanently broken, the global interlinked financial markets will shut down and cease to exist. This will all happen very quickly. It will not take years from the initial panic.
• The focus of governments will turn to controlling their panicked and hungry populations. Due to lack of availability of imported goods and adequate storage "sufficient to reconstitute" a system consistent with nation state government, this will prove to be too little too late and most government will devolve to the local level as populations lose faith in their national governments and the national governments lose the resources and ability to control their populations.
• There will be no large scale nuclear war. Instead, the population will be culled through starvation, local strife (including settling of long-standing scores) and disease. Wave after wave of pandemics will sweep the world.
• Similar to national economies and governments, centralized utilities will fail or become so decrepit as to be unsafe and unusable. All centralized utilities including the power grid will shut down permanently.
• The initial worldwide kill rate during the first couple decades following the financial panic will exceed 90%. The global population will be in the range of a few tens of millions when the bottom is hit in two or three centuries. Similar to the last dark age, the world's largest cities will have a population on the order of 25,000 and a large town will be 1,000.
• Life during the coming dark age will be similar to the last dark age but worse due to environmental damage and pollution.

Also, it would be reasonable to ask what my assessment was (back in 2018) of the odds that this prediction would be accurate enough to be useful. I would have guessed no more than about 30%. It might be 22% now. I had two really good masks, but given how things have played out so far being prepared in that way didn't help and now everyone knows what is needed for a serious pandemic. I guess if someone had an elderly relative in a nursing home, they may have gotten them out of there. That's why I have said that everyone should do their own assessment and preparation in line with their unique knowledge and experience. Some will be optimally prepared for the scenario that ultimately takes place and most won't. But if at least some are that is a good thing. I have no problem whatsoever with someone disagreeing with my assessment of the most probable scenario going forward. It's essential that people do disagree and take a variety of paths going forward.

I would put the odds of a full blown nuclear war being the top scenario to prepare for at about 10% and rising. The odds that bitcoin or gold will separate people out in any long term meaningful way I would put at less than 1%. But what I think is of no consequence, really. The main reason showing my thought process is useful is that it gives others an example of how one person who has done an assessment has done their assessment.

I'm expecting wave after wave of pandemics to sweep the world. How long it takes for the second wave of pandemic to sweep through will make some difference. If it's 6 months from now and the second wave is worse, that won't be good.

Wave after wave? Why?

The first reason is that with any particular virus, it will typically sweep through the world multiple times. The 1918 flu pandemic did that, as Vince notes above.

The second reason is that there are multiple lethal viruses other than COVID-19 that exist in multiple laboratories right now that can be released either by accident or on purpose.

The third reason is that as the first wave of pandemic wears down the population, the population becomes more susceptible. This susceptibility can result in another pandemic, even from an existing virus that the population was previously immune to.

The fourth reason is that the technology now exists for lone wolves, terrorist groups, and governments to create more lethal viruses that don't presently exist for the purpose of creating havoc or for warfare.

To me, the question is not if, but when, the second and more lethal wave sweeps through.

Regarding the above scenario from 2018, I said in March 2020,

This remains my top scenario (outlined starting a couple years ago) but the hardest thing to say is whether this is the big one or whether the big one is still coming. I'm inclined to think this is NOT the big one yet...

This still remains my top scenario, but the odds are decreasing. I never was sure, but am less sure now than I was.