Nuclear War

[tim]

“Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.

The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into indirection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule… Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.”

- The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny, Strauss and Howe, page 6

[FullMoon]

Does the war games simulations help predict the timing of the start of the war according to known variables?
Is your current estimate of timing because war gaming has shown that this year is most opportune time?
You said previously that the adventurism of this year will be planned to end later in the year, presumably because their allies in Congress will be replaced. Do you anticipate land grabs and posturing before a temporary detente of sorts?

John has shown how the exact time to predict the start of the war is impossible. All we have to work with are probabilities and statistics. We can define the distinct eras but anyone who tries to say an exact date and time is crazy.

As I've written in the past, crisis wars begin with a chaotic unexpected event. World War I began because a 12-year-old high school student decided in 1914 that it would be fun to shoot an Archduke. WW II began in 1937 because a Japanese soldier had to pee and got lost in the woods. Those wars were a complete surprise, even to the belligerents. That's how WW III will begin. It will be totally irrational, insane and unexpected, and it could happen any day.

My perspective is that we will have a commencement of hostilities which can be called "war". And maybe considered the beginning of WW3. But like the opening salvos of WW2, it's what I'd call adventurism and expansionism. It probably won't escalate to total war for a period of time afterwards. It's that period of time of which we cannot predict. It could be very fast or drawn out. I think Navigator's perspective is a non total war with total war occuring some time afterwards when desperation sets in and leadership arises who are capable of such indiscriminate destruction.
Navigator's experience and reasoning are more convincing to me rather than the excessively dystopian view. Yes, we will suffer long and hard and a great many shall perish, but not until true despair becomes the norm will total war and destruction be a feasible option. Few are so desperate as yet, and it will take time. If there was such a plan by the CCP, then evidence beyond a retired generals speech long ago would be needed to justify such a view. There's no evidence beyond emotion and speculation, in my opinion. We will see horrible things occur and our lives will be turned upside down. And then we will fight to the death.

[Navigator]

Does the war games simulations help predict the timing of the start of the war according to known variables?
Is your current estimate of timing because war gaming has shown that this year is most opportune time?
You said previously that the adventurism of this year will be planned to end later in the year, presumably because their allies in Congress will be replaced. Do you anticipate land grabs and posturing before a temporary detente of sorts?

No, the games cannot predict when war will start. Please note also that these games started under rather optimal conditions for the US and its Allies. In the games, considerable pre-war effort was spent on strengthening alliances in the west, and much military might was properly pre-positioned in Asia and Europe, with US Army forces prepared to quickly deploy overseas.

In the Biden administration, none of this is going to happen. Probably the reverse.

My timing is based on current conditions and what I think the Chinese/Russians see as a window of opportunity. They probably view Biden as extremely weak, and may want to move before the US Political system can change.

The posturing and attempts at "detente" have already been started by Russia. I expect the Chinese to follow after their winter Olympics.

[Cool Breeze]

Does the war games simulations help predict the timing of the start of the war according to known variables?
Is your current estimate of timing because war gaming has shown that this year is most opportune time?
You said previously that the adventurism of this year will be planned to end later in the year, presumably because their allies in Congress will be replaced. Do you anticipate land grabs and posturing before a temporary detente of sorts?

No, the games cannot predict when war will start. Please note also that these games started under rather optimal conditions for the US and its Allies. In the games, considerable pre-war effort was spent on strengthening alliances in the west, and much military might was properly pre-positioned in Asia and Europe, with US Army forces prepared to quickly deploy overseas.

In the Biden administration, none of this is going to happen. Probably the reverse.

My timing is based on current conditions and what I think the Chinese/Russians see as a window of opportunity. They probably view Biden as extremely weak, and may want to move before the US Political system can change.

The posturing and attempts at "detente" have already been started by Russia. I expect the Chinese to follow after their winter Olympics.

I can see this as sound reasoning. The reality is that any adventure into eastern Ukraine, big picture, is meaningless and unworthy of starting a war over.

[FullMoon]

Does the war games simulations help predict the timing of the start of the war according to known variables?
Is your current estimate of timing because war gaming has shown that this year is most opportune time?
You said previously that the adventurism of this year will be planned to end later in the year, presumably because their allies in Congress will be replaced. Do you anticipate land grabs and posturing before a temporary detente of sorts?

No, the games cannot predict when war will start. Please note also that these games started under rather optimal conditions for the US and its Allies. In the games, considerable pre-war effort was spent on strengthening alliances in the west, and much military might was properly pre-positioned in Asia and Europe, with US Army forces prepared to quickly deploy overseas.

In the Biden administration, none of this is going to happen. Probably the reverse.

My timing is based on current conditions and what I think the Chinese/Russians see as a window of opportunity. They probably view Biden as extremely weak, and may want to move before the US Political system can change.

The posturing and attempts at "detente" have already been started by Russia. I expect the Chinese to follow after their winter Olympics.

What I've seen in the news makes me think there will be no diplomatic solution to the Russian standoff. And it seems to be for show, as Navigator has said. It appears we're on your schedule.
How quickly will it escalate after the Olympics?
You mentioned Russia could continue if they break through Poland. How likely is it that China will stop after Taiwan?

[thomasglee]

Does the war games simulations help predict the timing of the start of the war according to known variables?
Is your current estimate of timing because war gaming has shown that this year is most opportune time?
You said previously that the adventurism of this year will be planned to end later in the year, presumably because their allies in Congress will be replaced. Do you anticipate land grabs and posturing before a temporary detente of sorts?

No, the games cannot predict when war will start. Please note also that these games started under rather optimal conditions for the US and its Allies. In the games, considerable pre-war effort was spent on strengthening alliances in the west, and much military might was properly pre-positioned in Asia and Europe, with US Army forces prepared to quickly deploy overseas.

In the Biden administration, none of this is going to happen. Probably the reverse.

My timing is based on current conditions and what I think the Chinese/Russians see as a window of opportunity. They probably view Biden as extremely weak, and may want to move before the US Political system can change.

The posturing and attempts at "detente" have already been started by Russia. I expect the Chinese to follow after their winter Olympics.

What I've seen in the news makes me think there will be no diplomatic solution to the Russian standoff. And it seems to be for show, as Navigator has said. It appears we're on your schedule.
How quickly will it escalate after the Olympics?
You mentioned Russia could continue if they break through Poland. How likely is it that China will stop after Taiwan?

If they easily take Taiwan, it will only embolden them.

[Navigator]

What I've seen in the news makes me think there will be no diplomatic solution to the Russian standoff. And it seems to be for show, as Navigator has said. It appears we're on your schedule.
How quickly will it escalate after the Olympics?
You mentioned Russia could continue if they break through Poland. How likely is it that China will stop after Taiwan?

Saw today that the Russia talks were near collapse. No surprise, as the Russians wanted NATO to not conduct exercises in post 1997 NATO countries. This includes Poland and Romania. They also want to stop NATO expansion, not just to Ukraine. This applies specifically, in the Russian perspective, to Sweden and Finland, both of which have expressed a certain degree of interest in joining NATO. The Russians are also putting out a lot of propaganda to their own people on how awful that would be.

I am unsure of how quickly things will escalate. I think that the warmer than expected winter, plus capitalism working to provide LNG alternatives to Europe, have taken a of Putin's expected leverages off of the table. We can only wait and see what the Russians do after the NATO talks collapse.

China will not stop with Taiwan. As John has pointed out, their real hatred is aimed at the Japanese. To get at Japan, they need South Korea. I would expect that since they cannot fully deploy their army against Taiwan, that they will also be preparing to reinforce/support and then take over operations in Korea from the North Koreans.

They will probably also start things with other neighbors, most likely Vietnam and the Philippines, but India is also a high probability.

Again, I am unsure of how quickly things will happen. It most likely depends on the speed of economic issues.

[guest]

to Europe, have taken a of Putin's expected leverages off of the table. We can only wait and see what the Russians do after the NATO talks collapse.

China will not stop with Taiwan. As John has pointed out, their real hatred is aimed at the Japanese. To get at Japan, they need South Korea. I would expect that since they cannot fully deploy their army against Taiwan, that they will also be preparing to reinforce/support and then take over operations in Korea from the North Koreans.

They will probably also start things with other neighbors, most likely Vietnam and the Philippines, but India is also a high probability.

Again, I am unsure of how quickly things will happen. It most likely depends on the speed of economic issues.

Is China strong enough to fight wars on that many fronts?

[Cool Breeze]

to Europe, have taken a of Putin's expected leverages off of the table. We can only wait and see what the Russians do after the NATO talks collapse.

China will not stop with Taiwan. As John has pointed out, their real hatred is aimed at the Japanese. To get at Japan, they need South Korea. I would expect that since they cannot fully deploy their army against Taiwan, that they will also be preparing to reinforce/support and then take over operations in Korea from the North Koreans.

They will probably also start things with other neighbors, most likely Vietnam and the Philippines, but India is also a high probability.

Again, I am unsure of how quickly things will happen. It most likely depends on the speed of economic issues.

Is China strong enough to fight wars on that many fronts?

The war predictions and mongering keep expanding around here. Just sit back and enjoy the hysteria.

The first step in all of this, IF any of it happens, is an economic crisis. Until then, we'll see more posting and Peter Schiffing about how early isn't wrong.

[Tom Mazanec]

to Europe, have taken a of Putin's expected leverages off of the table. We can only wait and see what the Russians do after the NATO talks collapse.

China will not stop with Taiwan. As John has pointed out, their real hatred is aimed at the Japanese. To get at Japan, they need South Korea. I would expect that since they cannot fully deploy their army against Taiwan, that they will also be preparing to reinforce/support and then take over operations in Korea from the North Koreans.

They will probably also start things with other neighbors, most likely Vietnam and the Philippines, but India is also a high probability.

Again, I am unsure of how quickly things will happen. It most likely depends on the speed of economic issues.

Is China strong enough to fight wars on that many fronts?

Was Germany strong enough to take on Great Britain, the USSR, and America at the same time?
No.
But that didn't stop the Austrian artist with the caterpillar on his upper lip from trying.