Generational Dynamics World View News

[thinker]

One more thing that I forgot to post, John said that inflation was not the problem that was going to cause economic chaos but rather deflation. I have noticed truck prices coming down in my area as well as housing prices going down in multiple parts of my state (Florida) now the price drops haven't been huge , but this is how it starts. I have been learning to play the guitar for a few months and another thing I have noticed is the amount of used equipment that has flooded the market, not just guitars but amps and other instruments. It hasn't been just one or two brands either, it's pretty much all brands even really high end guitars like PRS guitars. Another thing I noticed is that the equipment is generally in really good shape meaning for example that the guitars were taken care of which means the owners cared about them and were planning on keeping them for the long haul but they had to give them up. The Biden administration was pumping trillions into the economy to forestall a recession. Now that money is being taken out of the system more people are having a economic come to Jesus moment. You take all the demand that was brought forward by the Covid stimulus and ad the money being taken out of the system along with as John stated the slowing of the velocity of money with this recession and there you have your deflation. As always I would like to hear what you guys think.

[FullMoon]

The link here is to an EXCEPTIONAL video that explains the logic behind the Trump move to end the Ukraine war, and why it is already too late.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUHao-vA98g

The video is a study that details exactly why Russia and China are now welded at the hip, and how selling out Ukraine now, plus the other actions that Trump has promised Putin, would greatly weaken Europe.

Yes, Russia is greatly weakened now. But they will get bolstered by the Chinese when it hits the fan. Europe is not going to be a safe place to be for the coming China/US war.

It's not too late but at the present time it appears to be a long shot as stated in the video. The downside of it if it fails would bring us to worse conditions than we already have. But there's a chance that the big upside potential is worth the risk and maybe even what will potentially give us the edge that we need. Maybe the Middle East war will bring Russia closer together in fighting the Sunni. And if they're aligned with China, then the sides are drawn by this respect.

[Navigator]

Foreign Policy:
I think that Russia is far past the point of no return in regards to aligning with China.

Economics:
We could very well see the downturn that is expected shortly. God only knows what has kept the wheels from falling off for so long, since the problems that caused 2008 were never addressed. The debt limit will just get raised later this year, so it won't be the factor that sets it off.

In the 1930s, deflation happened because very few had access to money to spend. Most in the 1920s were mired in debt, and when the depression started, they could no longer access credit, so they had no money to buy things with. As a result, the economy went into a deflationary spiral, which is self reinforcing.

We will see the same thing. When it hits the fan, access to credit will disappear. Meanwhile, if you have debt, the screws will be put to you unless you can quickly repay.

In the end, the Great Depression was not solved by Government spending in WW2. It was solved by people paying off their debts, and by mass bankruptcies. This was accelerated by there being no consumer goods to buy during the war, so people paid off their debts.

But we are in a FAR worse situation now than back then. The government had little debt at the start of the 1930s depression. Now, they are the world's biggest debtor. And a global war is looming.

[Trevor]

Foreign Policy:
I think that Russia is far past the point of no return in regards to aligning with China.

Economics:
We could very well see the downturn that is expected shortly. God only knows what has kept the wheels from falling off for so long, since the problems that caused 2008 were never addressed. The debt limit will just get raised later this year, so it won't be the factor that sets it off.

In the 1930s, deflation happened because very few had access to money to spend. Most in the 1920s were mired in debt, and when the depression started, they could no longer access credit, so they had no money to buy things with. As a result, the economy went into a deflationary spiral, which is self reinforcing.

We will see the same thing. When it hits the fan, access to credit will disappear. Meanwhile, if you have debt, the screws will be put to you unless you can quickly repay.

In the end, the Great Depression was not solved by Government spending in WW2. It was solved by people paying off their debts, and by mass bankruptcies. This was accelerated by there being no consumer goods to buy during the war, so people paid off their debts.

But we are in a FAR worse situation now than back then. The government had little debt at the start of the 1930s depression. Now, they are the world's biggest debtor. And a global war is looming.

As bad off as we might be right now, most others are even worse. China's debt is every bit as bad as ours, if not worse, and their population remains a lot poorer. Them replacing us as the world superpower is becoming a distant dream, even if China's reports about their economic growth are accurate. Worse, their birth rate is now lower than Japan's and thanks to Covid, they're seen as an enemy, not merely a rival.

If Russia and China do indeed turn on each other, it won't be until after war's broken out. Germany and the Soviet Union collaborated with one another during the early days of the Second World War, allowing Hitler to achieve far more than he would have on his own. Even in 1939, France and Britain could have stopped Germany by launching an invasion, only they didn't. They were desperate to avoid another war, which only caused far greater tragedy than would have otherwise transpired.

Right now, Russia is far weaker than the Soviet Union and NATO could stand up against them, even without us. However, it wasn't until 2024 that most started to increase their defense spending and even then, they've got 3 decades of atrophy to make up for. As much as they scream about us, Ukraine's not all that important to those who don't share a border with Russia. Their leaders are far more concerned about climate change, badly out of touch with both the threat they face and what the public wants. There's a reason they're losing power in one nation after another.

[Tom Mazanec]

https://themostimportantnews.com/archiv ... een-before

Just weeks from war with Iran?

[FullMoon]

https://themostimportantnews.com/archiv ... een-before

Just weeks from war with Iran?

It's looking more likely than not. I saw someone call it the "beginning" of WW3. It will be the beginning of the reality that we're now officially sucked into massive and long term suffering and death.
The PLA are looking forward to the mistake of getting stuck in the Middle East with firepower needed in the Pacific. April is one of the two good months of the year for navigating those waterways. And we're here, watching it all happen as expected. Maybe the PLA will do a partial/mostly full blockade together with taking the Straights Islands and trying to establish control of the airways. Or maybe this is a ruse and they'll try for control of the N Pacific and Arctic by relieving their "friend" of those underdeveloped regions because they're friends and like to share with each other. Perhaps Russia will willingly put the yoke on itself and stand there bleating for scraps of anything it's Master will give it.
China's "Final" practice rounds:
https://youtube.com/shorts/alL8pzciM6Q? ... qlmQZfU-_m

[FullMoon]

https://youtube.com/shorts/P3N9VznyLJI? ... fCIWIK4wf-
THE UNITED STATES LACKS DETERMINATION TO SHELTER TAIWAN

This is a CCP sponsored YouTube channel and this video explains pretty clearly the logic of their strategy. They're in it for the long haul and willing to sacrifice and they're probably mostly correct in deducing that Americans aren't as committed as they are. But they might be wrong. A ME war and domestic insurgency would be sufficient distractions, both of which are looming and ready to boil over.

[Tom Mazanec]

8 Signs That The Bombing Of Iran Could Be Coming Very Soon
April 8, 2025
https://themostimportantnews.com/archiv ... -very-soon

[Higgenbotham]

About a week or two ago, I noticed traffic to the forum had increased a lot. Checked a little further and found that search results from google are highlighting this forum a lot more than in the past couple years. At the bottom of the main page of the forum it says, "Most users ever online was 1046 on Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:06 am." Recently we're regularly seeing over 400 users at any given time. "In total there are 420 users online :: 2 registered, 0 hidden and 418 guests (based on users active over the past 5 minutes)" This is for the whole forum currently. "Users browsing this forum: Higgenbotham and 86 guests" This is for this news thread currently. This news thread has the most activity.

If John were still with us, it would be reasonable to think the forum would be surpassing its early 2020 high in users. Again, I'd like to thank John's son Jason for keeping the forum online so that the archives are available.

[spottybrowncow]

Gordon Chang says Xi can't and won't negotiate, and discusses difficult position this puts him in:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/china ... with-trump

If we stay in trade war with China alone, but still trade with pretty much everyone else, we go through a period of scarcity, but China's economy might look pretty rough with relatively no one to sell goods to. Not identical to pre-WWII Japanese oil embargo by a long shot, but reminds me of it a little.

April is said to be a good month for weather in the Taiwan Straight. Will this be Xi's way "out?"