Generational Dynamics World View News

[FullMoon]

The indirect threats to Venezuela, meaning the US Naval buildup in the Caribbean, the attacks on drug boats operating blatantly out of Venezuela, and the talk about direct attacks against officials in that country are having the desired effect.

I believe that the strategy is to con Maduro into thinking the US is actually going to attack and invade, causing him to mobilize large numbers of militia. This means he would have to actually pay them, and that would quickly bring Maduro's finances to the breaking point.

Of course, the Chinese could step in with subsidies, but they are pretty strapped themselves, as China is in even worse straits that the US in regards to its economy.

They bought Argentina about the same time as they started the Venezuela campaign. Both sides of the trade routes are getting covered. Now the Canal issue can get sorted out. Assuming there's some kind of intelligent plan involved.

[Navigator]

While we wait on the Venezuela situation to develop, some other situations are developing due to Trump's actions.

First is the Epstein mess. Trump should have just released everything months ago. I have seen some reports that while he is most likely "clean" concerning Epstein's "lifestyle"(unlike, say, Andrew Windsor, Bill Clinton, or even Bill Gates), Trump may be trying to protect some of his pals. Still, not releasing all the materials has seriously damaged him, and is causing serious fragmentation of his base.

Second is the sucking up to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is NOT our friend. They were definitely complicit in 9/11. They fund extremists in Pakistan. I know that we need them to pump oil, but they have to do that anyway to fund themselves. Trump does want them to invest their $1T in the US, but I will believe that when I see it. Allying with them is NOT a good idea. Kuwait, which owes it existence to us, is the best as an ally for us outside of Israel.

[tim]

I've been watching the news on Mexico. Mexico's last Crisis Era ended in 1929. It has been well over 80 years since Mexico's last Crisis Era and Mexico is long due for their Fourth Turning.

https://www.compactmag.com/article/what ... -protests/

Over the weekend, thousands gathered in Mexico City to protest against the left-wing government of President Claudia Sheinbaum and the ruling Morena party. These so-called Gen-Z protests, which featured violent clashes with the police, were animated by grievances including cartel violence, narco-corruption, and, for a smaller subset, extremist politics. The protests were larger and more violent than anyone expected, and they represent the largest show of public opposition towards Sheinbaum’s presidency to date.

https://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg ... .cs.mx.htm

1910-1929: Mexican Revolution (Crisis Era)

In 1910, Díaz allowed the first election since retaking power in 1884. When his nearly unanimous (and likely fraudulent) victory against challenger Francisco Madero was announced, Madero organized a revolt which brought him to power. The next decade brought repeated coups and constant instability and bloodshed as different factions – radicals, liberals, and otherwise – fought for power. Then the Cristero War violently reintroduced the role of the Catholic Church as a fundamental question. Finally the mood eased when Plutarco Elías Calles managed to create a new political system which would ensure stability and peace through “puppet presidents” and a new party machine. Gray Champion / Defining Leader: ? Child Generation: The Stifled Generation (Artist) was overprotected as Mexico endured a bloody and destructive period of civil war and thorough national upheaval. They came of age while leaders confidently pursued a popular agenda and the country witnessed its most agreeable economy since independence. Later in life, as some remained technocrats and apologists, many broke free from a stilted and quiet youth to become the most articulate and impassioned advocates of reform.

[Navigator]

I would say good riddance to MGT, who I thought was an out-and-out nut job. If only AOC, Omar, and the rest of that crew of nut jobs on the other side of the spectrum would also resign.

In no major surprise, the cases brought against Comey and NY Prosecutor Letitia James were thrown out. As Bondi has been telling Trump, you have to build a solid case first, then go through established procedures. Maybe he will listen to her now. Questionable if the cases will ever be heard by a jury, but I am pretty sure that Trump's plan is to bankrupt them with legal fees they will incur in defending themselves.

A Ukraine peace treaty is sounding possible based on what I have read earlier today. If that somehow happens, Russia would be unlikely to demobilize its Army. Trump's musings about letting Europe defend itself (plus previous arm-twisting of Ukrainians to accept a decidedly Russian sided peace agreement) are just enabling Putin. Unfortunately he doesn't get it that Putin is completely evil and must be stopped, even if it means the war goes on for many more years.

There will be as much success in negotiating with Putin as there was with Hitler.

[Trevor]

I've looked at Trump's 28-point peace plan. It's not perfect, but from the way people respond, you'd think it was Munich all over again. Unfortunately, he will never wake up to the kind of threat Putin poses and if he hasn't by now, he's not going to.

He merely doesn't deserve all the blame for it. Europe has done very little to prepare for future conflict. They knew from the beginning what Trump's feelings on the matter were, and they had a year to prepare for this. More than that, even: every since he won the last nomination, a second Trump term was a possibility. For all their talk of independence, NATO likes the idea in the abstract, but if it required cuts to their social programs (and it would), the public response is an overwhelming "NO!" They more than have the ability to stand against Russia. What they don't have is the willpower.

We haven't had our "Fall of France" moment that would motivate a quick remobilization. There's a part of me that suspects China wants the Ukraine conflict to remain at a stalemate, since it not only leaves Russia dependent on them, it means NATO, the U.S., and others won't rearm in any significant fashion. Trump has cut Ukraine aid to nothing, but a lot of European nations are scaling back on military equipment, in part because there's little more they can spare.

Right now, the Ukrainian conflict is seen mostly as a local problem and contained. They staked their hopes on losses motivating the Russian to turn against Putin. They haven't. The territorial changes have been minimal for three years, but over the last six months, Ukrainian desertion has skyrocketed. Yes, both sides have taken massive losses: Russia can replace them far easier than Ukraine. Ukraine's approaching 40,000 desertions a month, and Russia's started another mobilization, even if they're not calling it that. Year-round conscription, with the conscripts sent to the front, which also means they don't have to pay bonuses.