Generational Dynamics World View News

[Fullmoonn]

Our nation has decayed dramatically during the lifetime of anyone middle age or older. Sadly, it wasn't obvious to most until now, now that it's basically too late. And so we get economic collapse, chaos and war. Not only is it the climax of a 4th turning but also similar the end of many cycles. 250 year Empire cycle as outlined by Glubb. 500 year banking cycle and then the older more nebulous Biblical type cycles.
Does anyone really think that when this rubber band snaps that we'll actually be able to repair the Pandora's and get back to "life as usual" after a period of difficulty. I don't hold credence to the idea that God has a plan for only some people and the rest have to burn in hell. It's basically a wrong interpretation for selfish and dubious means. If we can start with the assumption that God is good and is part of his creation, how can we then assume that most of his creation is garbage that needs to be incinerated? No, that's the Devil speaking into your ear. Killing in the name of religion is the work of the devil and is used by evil people for worldly and selfish means.

[Navigator]

The US military is redeploying serious air reinforcements (USN and USAF) to the Middle East to threaten Iran.

The US wants two things. First, and hopefully easiest, is some kind of decent treaty preventing Iranian nuclear capability. Second would be regime change.

It appears that the buildup is solely air power based. IMHO this is a good thing. We do NOT need a ground war with Iran. To put it into perspective, Iran is 4 times the size, both geographically and population wise, of Iraq. The US ground forces are not ready for this, even if there was an internal insurgency.

Hopefully, Iran will bow to the pressure. But I doubt it, as they are religious fanatics who believe God is on their side. They probably view the trouncing they got from the last bombing campaign as a "test of faith", rather than facing reality.

Heaven help any US pilot that goes down over Iran.

At some point, the Iranians may use their "almost nuclear" option, which is to mine the Straits of Hormuz. They have the capability to do this. No maritime insurance company is going to insure a supertanker going through a minefield, so this would cut off oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Countering this would require not just minesweeping, but securing the Iranian shoreline from which mines could be deployed. That would be a real pandora's box for the US military, as such "securing" missions tend to spiral (as in Marines "securing" airbases in South Vietnam in 1965).

[tim]

Iran is in a generational awakening era. Iran’s last crisis war was the Iran-Iraq war of 1980.

According to GD theory a full scale war with Iran is impossible the younger generation set to inherit power is pro western and against the hardcore Islamist generation in power.

If the US is able to cripple the Iranian government enough to tip the scale in favor of the younger pro western generation Iran will be our ally.

[Fullmoonn]

Hopefully, Iran will bow to the pressure. But I doubt it, as they are religious fanatics who believe God is on their side. They probably view the trouncing they got from the last bombing campaign as a "test of faith", rather than facing reality.

The best and most credible analysis is that the 12 day war was stopped by our request because the missiles incoming were wreaking havoc on the small nation getting pummeled. Iran also got walloped but the best and most credible analysis is that it GALVANIZED an otherwise splintering nation

[Fullmoonn]

Iran is in a generational awakening era. Iran’s last crisis war was the Iran-Iraq war of 1980.

According to GD theory a full scale war with Iran is impossible the younger generation set to inherit power is pro western and against the hardcore Islamist generation in power.

If the US is able to cripple the Iranian government enough to tip the scale in favor of the younger pro western generation Iran will be our ally.

Bombing last summer only HELPED the mullah regime. It's a nation in severe economic and water scarcity stress. The stress is slowly but surely pushing the people to demand change. An attack by the combined 2 threatening nations has shown to galvanize the population behind the current governments regardless of how detested they are. Just like if/when we get the anticipated domestic attack the population will support Trump, even those who detest him. Similar things happened after the nine eleven attacks and everyone galvanized behind Bush even though he was unpopular and rather detested by many. It's pretty clear that there's no good reason for the US to take big risks in the ME for any kind of reason. It's not sensible and based upon old hatreds that have nothing to do with the majority of Americans.