Generational Dynamics World View News

[DaKardii]

It probably won't begin prior to the 2028 presidential election. If it does begin during Trump's term it will be during his lame duck period. Either way, his successor will be the one leading us during the war once it begins.

As of today, here are the top candidates for our wartime leader, by party. Source is Election Betting Odds.

REPUBLICANS
MAJOR CANDIDATES (9% chance of nomination or higher)
-JD Vance
-Marco Rubio

MAJOR CANDIDATES (9% chance of nomination or higher)
-Ron DeSantis
-Donald Trump, Jr.
-Donald Trump, Sr. (if they somehow repeal the 22nd Amendment in time)

DEMOCRATS
MAJOR CANDIDATES (9% chance of nomination or higher)
-Gavin Newsom
-Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

MAJOR CANDIDATES (9% chance of nomination or higher)
-Josh Shapiro
-Pete Buttigieg
-Kamala Harris
-Andy Beshear
-JB Pritzker

[Iceman]

Thanks for posting those betting odds, Dakardii. Seriously, it's good to know what we're up against. At this pathetic point though, I hope Secretariat runs and wins by a mile.

Otherwise...for the first time in my life, I saw a B-1B Lancer Bomber fly somewhat low-level over the house this afternoon while cutting the lawn. Couldn't get over how quite it was as it sailed away into the wild blue yonder. At least I wasn't on the bombs-away side. Then, I probably wouldn't have seen him.

Regards,
Iceman

[DaKardii]

Thanks for posting those betting odds, Dakardii. Seriously, it's good to know what we're up against. At this pathetic point though, I hope Secretariat runs and wins by a mile.

Otherwise...for the first time in my life, I saw a B-1B Lancer Bomber fly somewhat low-level over the house this afternoon while cutting the lawn. Couldn't get over how quite it was as it sailed away into the wild blue yonder. At least I wasn't on the bombs-away side. Then, I probably wouldn't have seen him.

Regards,
Iceman

You're welcome. Here's the link to the site, since I forgot to post it above.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Other notable current odds:

-85% chance the Democrats retake the House in November.

-54% chance the Democrats retake the Senate in November.

-Most likely Senate outcome in November is a 51-49 Democrat majority, with the Democrats flipping seats in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio.

-Most likely Gubernatorial outcome in November is a 26-24 Democrat majority, marking the first time the Democrats have a majority of the Governor's Mansions since 2010. The Democrats flip Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio; while the Republicans flip California and Kansas.

[Iceman]

Good stuff! Thanks again, Dakardii! Ah, John Stossel. The good old days! Then, these are the good old days.

Regards,
Iceman

[tim]

With the United States and most of the Western world and China being deep in a fourth turning, along with where we are in April, I wouldn't be surprised if things started to spiral out of control soon.

April is historically marked by numerous tragedies, particularly in the third week, including the sinking of the Titanic (1912), the assassination of Abraham Lincoln (1865), the Oklahoma City bombing (1995), the Columbine shooting (1999), and the start of the Rwandan genocide (1994). Other major events include the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the Chernobyl disaster (1986).
Significant Historical Tragedies in April:

April 12, 1861: The American Civil War began with the firing on Fort Sumter.
April 14, 1865: President Abraham Lincoln was shot by John Wilkes Booth (dying on April 15).
April 14-15, 1912: The RMS Titanic sank after hitting an iceberg, killing over 1,500 people.
April 18, 1906: A massive earthquake and subsequent fire destroyed most of San Francisco.
April 19, 1943: The Warsaw Ghetto Uprising began, followed by brutal Nazi suppression.
April 29, 1991: A cyclone in Bangladesh killed an estimated 138,000 people.
April 19, 1993: The 51-day Waco siege ended in a fire that killed 76 people.
April 19, 1995: The Oklahoma City bombing destroyed a federal building, killing 168 people.
April 20, 1999: The Columbine High School shooting occurred in Colorado.
April 16, 2007: The Virginia Tech shooting resulted in 32 deaths.
April 15, 2013: Two bombs exploded at the Boston Marathon.

Other Notable Disasters and Events:

April 6, 1994: The Rwandan genocide began.
April 26, 1986: The Chernobyl nuclear disaster occurred in Ukraine.
April 20, 2010: The Deepwater Horizon oil rig exploded in the Gulf of Mexico.
April 11, 1965: The Palm Sunday Tornado Outbreak killed 271 people in the Midwestern U.S..
April 16, 1947: The Texas City disaster, a massive ship explosion, killed over 500 people.
April 14, 1935: "Black Sunday," the worst dust storm in American history, devastated the Plains.
April 20, 1889: Birth of Adolf Hitler.

[tim]

If Iran was able to sink one of our aircraft carriers or inflict some other unthinkable damage that could be the catalyst. Whatever its going to be, its going to be a "I remember where I was when it happened" event, like the 9/11 terrorist attack.

The world is in great danger right now not because of the military situation but because of where we are in the generational cycle.

https://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg ... htm#crisis

When does a Crisis ERA turn into a Crisis WAR?

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this question has a specific answer: it's a point of time defined in generational theory and known as the "regeneracy." The regeneracy is the point in time where an event, or series of events (like the Pearl Harbor attack and the Bataan death march in World War II or the Battle of Bull Run in the Civil War) unify a country or society behind its leader, and the survival of the country and its way of life become the highest priority, higher than the value of an individual life. This change opens the door to genocidal acts, since an individual human life has little value any more.

It's impossible to predict what event will trigger the regeneracy -- possibly a major terrorist attack on American soil, or possibly a major military defeat overseas -- but this event will end the political bickering, will unify the country once more, and will send the young Millennial generation off to war.

A certain "tipping point" occurs in every crisis war, when the public becomes so anxious, furious and outraged by acts (real or perceived) on the other side that the desire to win and to protect one's nation and way of life become more important than anything else. This point is called the "regeneracy," because the public forgets about political differences, and starts worrying about national survival. It's the time of regeneration of civic unity, and, in a sense, it's the time of regeneration of the entire nation.

In the American Civil War, it was the Battle of Bull Run that turned the war from a spectator sport into a serious war, and led to the bloody Battle of Gettysburg and Sherman's "scorched earth" March through Georgia. In WW II, it was the Bataan Death March that infuriated and united the country, and let to the Allies' saturation bombing of civilians in Germany and Japan.

[tim]

https://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg ... 151228.htm

The 'Kill anyone who's not Chinese' problem

I don't mean to pick on the Chinese particularly, but this is something any of several countries might try to do.

We began this chapter by noting that the Pentagon plans to deploy thousands of intelligent computer soldiers by 2014, and probably millions of them in the years to follow. The first robots will be carefully controlled by human overseers, in particular if the robot is about to kill an enemy soldier, but as the numbers of them grow and as they're involved in more complex battles, there will soon be large armies of computerized robots making their own decisions to identify and kill the enemy.

The robots that the Pentagon is planning will be very carefully designed not to become out of control killers, but the same care may not go into robot soldiers manufactured in other countries.

For example, the Chinese may decide to manufacture millions of robot soldiers programmed to recognize physical characteristics of a Chinese person. These robots may have some amphibious capability that allows them to swim across the Pacific Ocean to North America, or they may travel overland through Asia to Europe, programmed to "kill anyone you see who is not Chinese."

What would be the purpose of such a project? In the case of the Chinese, whom we're simply using as an example, the strategy would be as following: Once the Singularity occurs, the computers will take control of running the world. They'll have no particular reason to kill all the humans, the reasoning goes, provided that there aren't too many of them. Thus, by killing off all non-Chinese humans, it's more likely that the Chinese race will survive the Singularity.

There's little doubt that such a war strategy will be tried by some country or other, though it may not have the desired results: when other countries figure out what's going on, they'll manufacture their robots to "kill only the Chinese" (once again, just using the Chinese as an example). Still it's a problem that will have to be addressed, and with the first deployments due in just a few years, it will have to be addressed sooner rather than later.

https://www.foxnews.com/tech/humanoid-r ... tion-china

Humanoid robots hit mass production in China

China’s new factory can build 10,000 robots a year as automation scales fast

For years, humanoid robots felt like something you watched on social media. Impressive, yes. Practical, not quite. That line just got blurry.

A new factory in China is now producing humanoid robots at a pace that feels closer to car manufacturing. One robot rolls off the line every 30 minutes.

That adds up to about 10,000 units a year. This is not a prototype phase anymore. This is real production.

https://www.foxnews.com/tech/chinese-ro ... f-marathon

Chinese robot breaks human world record in Beijing half-marathon

Dozens of humanoid robots competed alongside 12,000 human runners, though some stumbled at the start or veered into barriers