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Re: New converts or someone stealing Johns work?
Posted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:56 pm
by Trevor
However, one pattern I have seen, although this is tied to GD, is that crime seems to rise and fall in 30-40 years pattern. It rose from the 1880's until the 1920's, fell until the 1960's, rose again until the mid-1990's, and has continued falling ever since.
Re: New converts or someone stealing Johns work?
Posted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 7:00 pm
by Trevor
Did you identify any specific counterexamples?
Well, the two world wars would be the start of that when violence and death was extremely high. The same for the Civil War, which was even more destructive for the United States. There was SOME violence at each of these points, the 1870's being efforts to resist reconstruction, some anarchist violence in the 1920's, and riots in the 1970's. As a whole, though, I don't see any actual basis.
Another point of contention is that it fails to take population into account.