19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame

[Anonymous1]

Something which you have not pointed out so I will, and that is the big contributor to the spread is religion. The Islam religion requires ritual washing of the body. That will be one major factor on the spreading plus also sexual contact.

[JULLIEN1]

Something which you have not pointed out so I will, and that is the big contributor to the spread is religion. The Islam religion requires ritual washing of the body. That will be one major factor on the spreading plus also sexual contact.

That would be odd: to wash his or her own body eliminates the bodily fluids which transmit Ebola. As for Ebola as a sexually transmitted disease, I wonder who would be so insane as to have sex with a man or woman spitting his or her own blood.

[JULLIEN1]

To Trevor:

Also, I wonder what would happen in Europe if Putin began to annex other countries along their border.

The short answer is: war.
A longer answer is the three Baltic states are NATO members, so any Russian attack against them would be immediately a NATO vs. Russia war. However, as Belarus is not a NATO member but a country with a pro-Russian regime, we can imagine a Russian annexation of Belarus without Western hard reactions (do you remember the talks of an union between the two countries in 2006?)

[vincecate]

Article on Islamic burial ritual and ebola:

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorial ... htm?p=full

[vincecate]

This video makes the case that each ebola case in Africa is resulting in 1 to 2 new cases but this is due to several really bad practices that the West does not have. So it is reasonable to expect it to be less than 1 in the US so it should die out in the US.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=UUy9 ... TLqi9e5yWA

[Guest]

Greece could be hit hard. That country's medical system is on the brink. Some clinics and pharmacies don't even have asprin. Greece is also the entry point for upwards of 80% of the illegal immigrants entering the EU (the other main point of entry is Italy). Both countries are being overrun with Africans, Indians, and Arabs. Greece has seen its basic institutions gutted by the current financial crisis. What will stop Greece from being hit hard? Hint: Golden Dawn uses the upcoming pandemic to start to forcibly expel third world immigrants. This pandemic could propel nationalist groups into power. Have you considered that aspect, John?

Italy will be affected, too, but probably not as badly as completely bankrupt Greece.

If Ebola reaches India, it's over for the sub-continent.

[gerald]

Why has the Western Europe risk been changed to a 3? Is this because of the recent conflict in Ukraine?

Thanks,

Joe

Because of two things: The Ukraine crisis and Greece's financial crisis. Both of these have revived WW II tensions.

John, -- since you changed the chart, may I suggest you add Africa and South America. For example In South America things could get very interesting in Venezuela and Argentina, and of course Africa has Ebola and various "wars".
Just a thought.

[Tom Mazanec]

Actually, by now I expected hundreds, if not thousands, of cases outside the three nations. The fact that we haven't seen more than the few in Nigeria, and several in other countries may be a good sign.
Of course, with my luck in making observations and predictions, there may be more places tomorrow where it crops up.

[gerald]

interesting --- http://finance.yahoo.com/news/york-city ... 00460.html

New York City's Rats Are Carrying Viruses No One's Seen Before

Nothing to see just move along.

[John]

interesting --- http://finance.yahoo.com/news/york-city ... 00460.html

New York City's Rats Are Carrying Viruses No One's Seen Before

Nothing to see just move along.

I've been told that desktop probably contains viruses
no one's seen before.