Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

SeeBSCallBS wrote:"I hope so". Jesus is so proud of you.

You don't even believe in God. Who are you to invoke Christ, precious snow flake?

John wrote:

Fishbellykanaka wrote: > [[ If nothing else, this is GREAT material for my
> yet-to-be-written novel series based on an ancient conflict
> between several Generational-Dynamics-Aware "secret societies"
> trying to guide mankind for their various "interests"...!
> ]]

I assume that this is an allusion to Isaac Asimov's Foundation series.
Please write these novels while I'm still alive, so that I can read
them.

Asimov's Foundation "Psychohistory" is certainly the "blueprint" for the idea,.. that's for sure!

..which I have YET to actually read. Though I have listened to the first few minutes in audiobook form.

But seriously, GenDynics (hope you will forgive the abrev-o-name, GD might be better, but it seems too short for me) seems to me VERY justified in being a "Unifying Theory" of the concept.

The basic "concept" of the novel might (!?) be that there are three "societies" dedicated to:

• 1) Guiding humankind to avoid genocidal crises.
  ( They always fail, but feel obligated to try. They've also decided that the "secret knowledge" of GenDynics needs to remain hidden from "normal people", as it "warp history in terrible ways!" if it were known.)

• 2) Guiding humankind to use genocide to "improve the human species". There are several factions of this group with different definitions of "improvement".
  ( They nearly always fail, but their "excuse" is that "we can't do it right because globally transformative genocide is hard when nations/groups aren't ALL in sync". All these factions agree in trying to sync up all the world's timelines, but are constantly jockeying for position to advance their "improvement".)
  ( They also vow to keep this knowledge secret, as it would be too destabilizing of their efforts.)
  (( They HAVE tended to succeed in driving the world's timelines toward synchronization, though. They've pulled off several sync-ups in the last 100,000 years. Lot's of story fodder there, eh? ))

• 3) Specifically NOT guiding humankind by "fighting" the other GenDynics aware "societies" so that the "normal cycles" happen as they are "supposed to happen".
  ( They nearly always succeed, simply because it's very difficult to do what their opponents are trying to do, but their efforts do produce "weird anomalies" in history.)

There might be (probably will be) a fourth society, which is trying to tell the "normal" world about the principles of GenDynics, who seems to be generally "forcibly ignored/de-legitimized" while being heavily threatened in "clever ways" from the shadows. Ooooo,.. spooky!

..led by a guy known as "X" perhaps!?

The story being told/narrated from the perspective of a reasonably intelligent "semi-bum" who stumbles onto some "interesting people" after deciding that X's internet-borne theory sounds like as good an excuse as any to "hole up" on Maui to get as far from the oncoming catastrophe as possible.

..little did he realize...

John wrote:

> And Generational Dynamics predicts that the world his headed for a
> Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting China and its allies
> against America and its allies. This is what America and the Trump
> administration should be preparing for.

Guest wrote: > This statement gives me hope, not of victory, but at the very
> least, a chance to inflict death and destruction upon America's
> enemies before we die.

As you may know, I've gone back and forth on this issue.

The Chinese people have this "China Dream," where they completely
replace the US as the principal superpower in the world, with Chinese
navies controlling the seas from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian ocean
to Africa and the Mideast. It's a dream that's completely emotional,
erotic, nationalistic, self-delusional, irrational, unrealistic,
inappropriate, and disastrous.

China has no experience fighting an external war, and particularly no
experience fighting a naval war, and it takes decades of experience to
be able to fight such wars. China would have lost to Japan in WW II
if the US hadn't helped.

China will launch all its missiles at American cities, military bases,
and aircraft carriers. That will destroy many American cities, but it
won't destroy America.

In the meantime, China will be fighting Japan, Vietnam, India and
Russia, all with their own hordes of cannon fodder troops.
Furthermore, China will also be fighting a civil war. China does not
have any way of transporting millions of cannon fodder troops to the
US to fight the US army here. Unlike the US, they have no experience
fighting that kind of war, and don't know how to do it.

What the Chinese do have, or will have, is hundreds or perhaps even
thousands of nuclear missiles targeting American cities, military
bases, and aircraft carriers. After they've launched all those
missiles, and destroyed numerous American cities, bases, and aircraft
carriers, they'll have nothing left to fight the war against us, and
will still have to fight the war against India, Japan, and so forth.

At that point, it's quite possible that the US will join these
countries in delivering the final blow in the destruction of China's
military. Then there'll be a new international conference of
politicians to decide how to rebuild the world.

So, China's "genocidal urge", at this point in their "development", will produce the destruction of 'most' of the city-borne "governance" infrastructure of the west.

That means that we (the west) are presently building, or have built, a distributed shadow-infrastructure in the space between the cities. This infrastructure will be what the west governs itself with after the first-strikes of the China-block.

This western infrastructure only really needs to exist in places that the Chinese Horde, and their non-Chinese-hating Sunni sub-hordes, can't get to particularly quickly (via land).

The Eurasian West would need only SOME of this infrastructure, so that the Eurasian Westerners (Europe, Russia, Western "Greater Mongolia" [Siberian], Greater Persia, and perhaps bits of India) could organize the land resistance against the Hordes, with LOTS of manpower from the peoples of the Greater Tibetoburman-TaiKadai-HmongMien ['Subsudsinic'] Region.

The Horde will swarm overland, since the large cities have been obliterated by the west's nukes, and will take what they please. But intertribal friction (inter-sinic, inter-Sunni, and sino-Sunni) will limit what they can take and hold.

The Chinese will have their stealth-infrastructure, but it will be much less extensive, as they figure that they need only a very tiny "Important People" command group. They are counting on their hordes to capture the "industrial production system" of the west to supply them with "conquest machines".

Their problem is that industrial production will be almost exclusively in isolated America, and VERY difficult to take. Eurasia (the west's holdings) will be purposefully de-industrialized so as to deny the hordes supplies.

Western Europe will be the land of breeding soldiers, spies, and making improvised weapons out of scrap. The elites of the west will have left for the Americas. The Americas will occasionally supply Europe with sustaining technology and low-grade weapons.

The Horde territory will descend into barbarism, which becomes the most stable structure with which to hold territory for food making and attempted industry.

Horde industry never quite produces well, because slavery has it's limits, the attrition of high and medium tech war gear is awful, and the pin-point nuking of facilities by the west makes things difficult.

The distributed horde itself finds they aren't particularly motivated to make targets of themselves by attempting war industry, and that the west seems to have forgotten about them as adversaries unless they "act up".

The last attempt of the Chinese Central Control to make a major "push" to have SOMETHING for which to sue for peace will be utterly rebuffed by the west, and will bring on the final-ish conflagration. Their Center will be eaten by their own horde.

There will be no "clean up" of the world under the control of the remnants of the Horde. They will be allowed to suffer their fate with no assistance, and be seen as sub-human monsters who are the equivalent of "a disease", to be allowed to burn itself out under quarantine.

The west will subsist and advance, fighting off "the border disease" as ants are dealt with who dare to invade the kitchen.

Things will progress VERY slowly, for quite some time.

..climate change will be the stereotypical joke offered up between oldtimers.

Food and babies. More important things to do...

Fishbellykanaka wrote: So, China's "genocidal urge", at this point in their "development", will produce the destruction of 'most' of the city-borne "governance" infrastructure of the west.

That means that we (the west) are presently building, or have built, a distributed shadow-infrastructure in the space between the cities. This infrastructure will be what the west governs itself with after the first-strikes of the China-block.

This western infrastructure only really needs to exist in places that the Chinese Horde, and their non-Chinese-hating Sunni sub-hordes, can't get to particularly quickly (via land).

The Eurasian West would need only SOME of this infrastructure, so that the Eurasian Westerners (Europe, Russia, Western "Greater Mongolia" [Siberian], Greater Persia, and perhaps bits of India) could organize the land resistance against the Hordes, with LOTS of manpower from the peoples of the Greater Tibetoburman-TaiKadai-HmongMien ['Subsudsinic'] Region.

The Horde will swarm overland, since the large cities have been obliterated by the west's nukes, and will take what they please. But intertribal friction (inter-sinic, inter-Sunni, and sino-Sunni) will limit what they can take and hold.

The Chinese will have their stealth-infrastructure, but it will be much less extensive, as they figure that they need only a very tiny "Important People" command group. They are counting on their hordes to capture the "industrial production system" of the west to supply them with "conquest machines".

Their problem is that industrial production will be almost exclusively in isolated America, and VERY difficult to take. Eurasia (the west's holdings) will be purposefully de-industrialized so as to deny the hordes supplies.

Western Europe will be the land of breeding soldiers, spies, and making improvised weapons out of scrap. The elites of the west will have left for the Americas. The Americas will occasionally supply Europe with sustaining technology and low-grade weapons.

The Horde territory will descend into barbarism, which becomes the most stable structure with which to hold territory for food making and attempted industry.

Horde industry never quite produces well, because slavery has it's limits, the attrition of high and medium tech war gear is awful, and the pin-point nuking of facilities by the west makes things difficult.

The distributed horde itself finds they aren't particularly motivated to make targets of themselves by attempting war industry, and that the west seems to have forgotten about them as adversaries unless they "act up".

The last attempt of the Chinese Central Control to make a major "push" to have SOMETHING for which to sue for peace will be utterly rebuffed by the west, and will bring on the final-ish conflagration. Their Center will be eaten by their own horde.

There will be no "clean up" of the world under the control of the remnants of the Horde. They will be allowed to suffer their fate with no assistance, and be seen as sub-human monsters who are the equivalent of "a disease", to be allowed to burn itself out under quarantine.

The west will subsist and advance, fighting off "the border disease" as ants are dealt with who dare to invade the kitchen.

Things will progress VERY slowly, for quite some time.

..climate change will be the stereotypical joke offered up between oldtimers.

Food and babies. More important things to do...

You are really either overestamating the National and Supranational Unity of the west or you are an american and you completely fail to comprehend the state of European demographic and political affairs.

Europe has had a consensus of moderate social Democracy (Bismarck Model) both before the Wars and after, and after the wars even most of the hardened socialist radicals went to the center and instituted de facto one party state in multipolar system to ensure stability, predictability and equitable forced redistribution of Capital With relative low taxes and relative good protection of private property rights.

This system has reached it's limit, the coalition of old guard geezers are dying off and the political status is degenerating into a African styled win or lose all democracy similar to the Spanish Civil War with different right wing factions joining together against the alliance of different left wing factions.

Additionally you have the demographic of mohammedans rapidly replacing native population similar to the great demographic migrations and conflicts that happened 1400 years ago. The mohammedans have already allied with the left wing alliance as we can see in the ethnic make up of the parties and the voting patterns of the mohammedans. This will have significant outcome on the intensity and brutality of the conflict as predicted by generational dynamics as it becomes in addition to ideological and geographic/eocnomic conflict it will also be ethnic conflict.

The different national militaries of Europe will disintegrate and civil wars will ensue as the natural evolutionary drive of socialist will be to send the right wing soldiers off to die as explained through R/K theory these soldiers will change their alliegiance to right wing military sub commanders who will take the fight to the cities and capitols to stop the socialist and mohemmedan alliance.

The resulting conflict will then become a back forth war similar to the Red and White Army of the Russian civil war or the Nationalist Spain against Republican Spain in the spanish civil war.

There will be no prolonged national/supranational EU army to either defend against or invade China and its allies, after the first victories and the leftist elites and their parasite voters try to send the soldiers deeper into the east to die in order to protect their own Genetic evolutionary chances at home, the right wing commanders will revolt and use the veteran soldiers to kill off the leftists and mohammedans to their maximum capacity and take Power for themselves in right wing autocracies based on traditionalism as a reaction to current left wing paradigm oppression.

Weiseth wrote:
You are really either overestamating the National and Supranational Unity of the west or you are an american and you completely fail to comprehend the state of European demographic and political affairs.

Europe has had a consensus of moderate social Democracy (Bismarck Model) both before the Wars and after, and after the wars even most of the hardened socialist radicals went to the center and instituted de facto one party state in multipolar system to ensure stability, predictability and equitable forced redistribution of Capital With relative low taxes and relative good protection of private property rights.

This system has reached it's limit, the coalition of old guard geezers are dying off and the political status is degenerating into a African styled win or lose all democracy similar to the Spanish Civil War with different right wing factions joining together against the alliance of different left wing factions.

Additionally you have the demographic of mohammedans rapidly replacing native population similar to the great demographic migrations and conflicts that happened 1400 years ago. The mohammedans have already allied with the left wing alliance as we can see in the ethnic make up of the parties and the voting patterns of the mohammedans. This will have significant outcome on the intensity and brutality of the conflict as predicted by generational dynamics as it becomes in addition to ideological and geographic/eocnomic conflict it will also be ethnic conflict.

The different national militaries of Europe will disintegrate and civil wars will ensue as the natural evolutionary drive of socialist will be to send the right wing soldiers off to die as explained through R/K theory these soldiers will change their alliegiance to right wing military sub commanders who will take the fight to the cities and capitols to stop the socialist and mohemmedan alliance.

The resulting conflict will then become a back forth war similar to the Red and White Army of the Russian civil war or the Nationalist Spain against Republican Spain in the spanish civil war.

There will be no prolonged national/supranational EU army to either defend against or invade China and its allies, after the first victories and the leftist elites and their parasite voters try to send the soldiers deeper into the east to die to protect their own Genetic evolutionary chances, the right wing commanders will revolt and use the veteran soldiers to kill off the leftists and mohammedans to their maximum capacity and take Power for themselves in right wing autocracies based on traditionalism as a reaction to current left wing paradigm oppression.

Sounds GREAT, Weiseth!
The basic problem in today's society is too much lipstick and not enough napalm.




BRING ON THE WAR!

Weiseth wrote:

Fishbellykanaka wrote: So, China's "genocidal urge", at this point in their "development", will produce the destruction of 'most' of the city-borne "governance" infrastructure of the west.

That means that... (more words above in the thread )

You are really either overestamating the National and Supranational Unity of the west or you are an american and you completely fail to comprehend the state of European demographic and political affairs.

E aloha Weiseth!

Yes, I am a "goofy American™" who seems to have a simplified understanding of "world affairs" stuff! I am more concerned with the price of poke (fish salad-like dish) at the local market than subtleties betwixt the various grades of "socialism" in Europe, but a little talk-story about these matters is fun, nonetheless.

You must also understand that my basic views on these matters are those of a fiction writer. I don't contend that my conjectures are anything more than attempts at finding plausible good story ideas.

Europe has had a consensus of moderate social Democracy (Bismarck Model) both before the Wars and after, and after the wars even most of the hardened socialist radicals went to the center and instituted de facto one party state in multipolar system to ensure stability, predictability and equitable forced redistribution of Capital With relative low taxes and relative good protection of private property rights.

This system has reached it's limit, the coalition of old guard geezers are dying off and the political status is degenerating into a African styled win or lose all democracy similar to the Spanish Civil War with different right wing factions joining together against the alliance of different left wing factions.

I was conjecturing on what happens when the capitals of ALL the countries of the West suddenly disappear.

Europe would quickly devolve (!?) into a very fractured "local warlord" based society. I'm imagining that there exists SOME hardened "nuke proof" infrastructure from which "those who built that infrastructure" could govern/command whatever they had left to govern or command.

My point was that europe would "come together" in cause against "the evil first-strike nukers", after dealing with their own internal "sympathizers with the bad guys", and do what needs doing to prepare for the onslaught of the land forces of the first-strikers.

Additionally you have the demographic of mohammedans rapidly replacing native population similar to the great demographic migrations and conflicts that happened 1400 years ago. The mohammedans have already allied with the left wing alliance as we can see in the ethnic make up of the parties and the voting patterns of the mohammedans. This will have significant outcome on the intensity and brutality of the conflict as predicted by generational dynamics as it becomes in addition to ideological and geographic/eocnomic conflict it will also be ethnic conflict.

The different national militaries of Europe will disintegrate and civil wars will ensue as the natural evolutionary drive of socialist will be to send the right wing soldiers off to die as explained through R/K theory these soldiers will change their alliegiance to right wing military sub commanders who will take the fight to the cities and capitols to stop the socialist and mohemmedan alliance.

European muslims, and most chinese-appearing european "immigrants", will be exterminated. Period.

When you've been nuked, the slightest appearance of the enemy must be destroyed. European "live and let live" sentiment will disappear.

Strong-man governance, abjectly authoritarian and deadly stern, will be the only real form of "government" in Europe. It may be benign strong-man governance, or not, but it will be nearly wartime totalitarian in power wielding.

The resulting conflict will then become a back forth war similar to the Red and White Army of the Russian civil war or the Nationalist Spain against Republican Spain in the spanish civil war.

There will be no prolonged national/supranational EU army to either defend against or invade China and its allies, after the first victories and the leftist elites and their parasite voters try to send the soldiers deeper into the east to die in order to protect their own Genetic evolutionary chances at home, the right wing commanders will revolt and use the veteran soldiers to kill off the leftists and mohammedans to their maximum capacity and take Power for themselves in right wing autocracies based on traditionalism as a reaction to current left wing paradigm oppression.

The european west (we'll call it the EW) won't march it's forces to the east at all. The EW will create fortress europe, locality by locality, and wait for the Chinese/Sunni (the CS) armies to come to them.

The CS will never make it past the near east before they simply lose motivation to continue. Their internal conflicts and the necessities required for simple survival will force them to set up little fortresses and fiefdoms, and slow them to a stop.

China will then TRY to figure some way to sue for peace, and neither side will accept the terms for that peace, and after some shortish time the only remaining tech-capable power will annihilate what passes for "working chinese infrastructure". At that point the non-west will be forced to fester in it's own juices-'o-awfulness, until the cries of the their women and children are sufficiently loud to pay the price for the horror their rulers inflicted on humanity.

That could take quite some time.

Meanwhile, the west (european and american) would have to re-evolve out of it's Strong-man governing systems, and re-equilibrize international relations.

But it will be A LONG time before the non-resource rich territories of the "tribes" that descended from the hordes are "cleaned up". The resources within those territories will be treated as if they were petroleum under a sea. A close in perimeter will be established, and any non-authorized human being approaching it will be destroyed.

The "wilderness" will be treated as territory occupied by hostile (inferior but dangerous) aliens from another world entirely. These "aliens" will be culled on a regular basis when they start to become annoying.

(This sounds a lot like "Avatar", the blue-people sci-fi movie, doesn't it?)

Eventually the Americas, then western Europe, Japan, Australia, and Oceania will be cleaned up. The horde territories will not be cleaned up.

Eventually a human rights movement will insist on the horde tribes being re-humanized.


Mahalo a me aloha nui loa!

I dont know the future, I'm just postulating as well, but Europe is deeply polarized as it was before. And any conjecture needs to take that into account.

As for Your other postulation it's very interesting the only other thing I would argue is that I'm not sure human rights would be the same in that scenario. The current human right or perspective on "humanity" comes from socialism and gnosticism, and the adherents to this philosophy is dying off and the leftists are taking it more to the Extreme into the realm of insanity and fantasy such as they argue now that every person has the right to government subsdized good housing, clothes and commodities. And that's not taking all the ludicrious notion of a pure clean energy economy into account.

As Mr Xenakis said, I hope to read Your work as well, very interesting. The hordes and Warlords reminds me of the aftermath of the dark age of Technology in the 40K universe.

Weiseth wrote:I dont know the future, I'm just postulating as well, but Europe is deeply polarized as it was before. And any conjecture needs to take that into account.

As for Your other postulation it's very interesting the only other thing I would argue is that I'm not sure human rights would be the same in that scenario. The current human right or perspective on "humanity" comes from socialism and gnosticism, and the adherents to this philosophy is dying off and the leftists are taking it more to the Extreme into the realm of insanity and fantasy such as they argue now that every person has the right to government subsdized good housing, clothes and commodities. And that's not taking all the ludicrious notion of a pure clean energy economy into account.

As Mr Xenakis said, I hope to read Your work as well, very interesting. The hordes and Warlords reminds me of the aftermath of the dark age of Technology in the 40K universe.

I hope your vision comes true, Weiseth. I really do.

Guest wrote:

Weiseth wrote:I dont know the future, I'm just postulating as well, but Europe is deeply polarized as it was before. And any conjecture needs to take that into account.

As for Your other postulation it's very interesting the only other thing I would argue is that I'm not sure human rights would be the same in that scenario. The current human right or perspective on "humanity" comes from socialism and gnosticism, and the adherents to this philosophy is dying off and the leftists are taking it more to the Extreme into the realm of insanity and fantasy such as they argue now that every person has the right to government subsdized good housing, clothes and commodities. And that's not taking all the ludicrious notion of a pure clean energy economy into account.

As Mr Xenakis said, I hope to read Your work as well, very interesting. The hordes and Warlords reminds me of the aftermath of the dark age of Technology in the 40K universe.

I hope your vision comes true, Weiseth. I really do.

Me too man, it's about time we take retribution against the traitors.

Weiseth wrote:
Me too man, it's about time we take retribution against the traitors.

That's what I am talking about.

I have fought in two wars. I'm ready for more.