Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

thomasglee wrote:

CH86 wrote:

thomasglee wrote:Kim's goal is to create an illusion of possible reunification with the south; just enough illusion to motivate the south to ask US troops to leave, permanently. This has long been a goal of the Kim Family Regime. They need to drive a wedge between the USA and ROK. Right now, in the ROK, there is a push by leftists to move the ROK toward socialism.

If the north stops testing missiles, etc., then watch... Iran will probably restart testing. The two countries work closely together and they test each other's technology. It is highly likely that the nukes tested by north Korea in the past were of Iranian design.

Iran Doesn't have nukes Yet, developing Nukes is the whole purpose of the nuclear program in Iran. The West and Israel watch the Nuclear program Like a hawk. If Iran ever acquires nukes it would be from North Korea, not the other way around.

That's your thought. My thought is that Iran has them and has used the norKs to test them.

What's the purpose of Iran's Nuclear program at Bushehr and elsewhere, then.

CH86 wrote:

thomasglee wrote:

CH86 wrote:
Iran Doesn't have nukes Yet, developing Nukes is the whole purpose of the nuclear program in Iran. The West and Israel watch the Nuclear program Like a hawk. If Iran ever acquires nukes it would be from North Korea, not the other way around.

That's your thought. My thought is that Iran has them and has used the norKs to test them.

What's the purpose of Iran's Nuclear program at Bushehr and elsewhere, then.

They develop the nukes but then have them tested in north Korea by the norKs. It gives Iran plausible deniability.
Just a theory I've carried for quite some time. Having the norKs do the testing allows Iran to feign suspension of their program, thereby taking the head off and letting them get the money they got from the Obama administration. The norKs obtain hard currency for conducting the tests and Iran gets to see how their development is progressing.

thomasglee wrote:

CH86 wrote:

thomasglee wrote:
That's your thought. My thought is that Iran has them and has used the norKs to test them.

What's the purpose of Iran's Nuclear program at Bushehr and elsewhere, then.

They develop the nukes but then have them tested in north Korea by the norKs. ... The norKs obtain hard currency for conducting the tests and Iran gets to see how their development is progressing.

Oooooooo,.. THAT is an excellent theory!

Perhaps China is acting like a sensible parent, and cutting off phone and internet privileges to their little norKy offspring for a while for being "ill behaved"?

Aloha no a nā mahalo! <shaka!>

Thomasglee:
Agreed. Barry gave them the farm. Their research has been accomplished underground. Kim is in-your-face with his nukes. He's not cowed by a long shot. Arrogant.

sue wrote:Thomasglee:
Agreed. Barry gave them the farm. Their research has been accomplished underground. Kim is in-your-face with his nukes. He's not cowed by a long shot. Arrogant.

Think about it; they supposedly destroyed their nuclear making capabilities (did blow up their cooling tower) yet were able to quickly produce nukes to be tested. You're right, he is not cowed. If anything, he is emboldened. We (our leaders) keep treating the norKs like they are backward idiots. Kim was educated in Europe as was much of their leadership. They are sly. As the Koreans would call them, they are 족제비 (weasels).

thomasglee wrote: > Think about it; they supposedly destroyed their nuclear making
> capabilities (did blow up their cooling tower) yet were able to
> quickly produce nukes to be tested. You're right, he is not
> cowed. If anything, he is emboldened. We (our leaders) keep
> treating the norKs like they are backward idiots. Kim was
> educated in Europe as was much of their leadership. They are sly.
> As the Koreans would call them, they are 족제비 (weasels).

There's another angle to this that I haven't heard anyone mention.
When you say, "He is not cowed," you're referring to the child
dictator, but when you say they "did blow up their cooling tower"
you're referring to the father.

The father made fools of the West multiple times, particularly in
2008. The child is walking in his father's footsteps, and wants to
make fools of the West as well, to prove that he's as good a dictator
as his father was. If the child fails to make a fool of Trump and the
West, it has a national DPRK meaning, but it also has a very personal
meaning, in that he will have failed to live up to his father skills.

That means that not only must he keep his nuclear arsenal, but he must
also do it in a way to make a fool of Trump. If he can't do that,
then his whole charm offensive in the last four months will have
failed as well, and he will lose a great deal of stature.

John wrote:

thomasglee wrote: > Think about it; they supposedly destroyed their nuclear making
> capabilities (did blow up their cooling tower) yet were able to
> quickly produce nukes to be tested. You're right, he is not
> cowed. If anything, he is emboldened. We (our leaders) keep
> treating the norKs like they are backward idiots. Kim was
> educated in Europe as was much of their leadership. They are sly.
> As the Koreans would call them, they are 족제비 (weasels).

There's another angle to this that I haven't heard anyone mention.
When you say, "He is not cowed," you're referring to the child
dictator, but when you say they "did blow up their cooling tower"
you're referring to the father.

The father made fools of the West multiple times, particularly in
2008. The child is walking in his father's footsteps, and wants to
make fools of the West as well, to prove that he's as good a dictator
as his father was. If the child fails to make a fool of Trump and the
West, it has a national DPRK meaning, but it also has a very personal
meaning, in that he will have failed to live up to his father skills.

That means that not only must he keep his nuclear arsenal, but he must
also do it in a way to make a fool of Trump. If he can't do that,
then his whole charm offensive in the last four months will have
failed as well, and he will lose a great deal of stature.

Yes, you're right. He has to save face while proving he is legitimate. That's an important matter in Korean society. Another issue that most people do not realize is that Kim Jong Un was not born by Kim Jong Il's "official" wife. He was born through a concubine. That's the reason why he had to have Kim Jong Nam killed in Malaysia. If Kim Jong Nam had ever returned to challenge Kim Jong Un, he would have been able to claim that (Jong Nam) was the true legitimate son and the eldest, which in Korean society would have trumped all.

North Korea's nuclear missiles look like Chinese ones. I don't think the North Koreans have designed anything. The North Koreans are nothing but thugs. North Korea deserves to be rubbed off the map. I believe the Chinese have given the weapons to the North Koreans and that the 'tests' are nothing but acts of intimidation. The Chinese delayed a trade war with America for a year and a half--Trump knows this--and that's why he is hammering down hard on the Chinese now. North Koreans are nothing more than Chinese proxies. My advice to the Chinese: curb your dog, or America will do it for you. John says it himself: the North Koreans will never play fair. It's best to just nuke North Korea until it glows and all life their has been extinguished. No, I'm not kidding.

Guest wrote:North Korea's nuclear missiles look like Chinese ones. I don't think the North Koreans have designed anything. ... I believe the Chinese have given the weapons to the North Koreans and that the 'tests' are nothing but acts of intimidation. The Chinese delayed a trade war with America for a year and a half--Trump knows this--and that's why he is hammering down hard on the Chinese now. North Koreans are nothing more than Chinese proxies.

So the three forces shaping this are 1) US pressure to denuke 2) Kim's legitimacy with his people and his legacy 3) China.

I'm still entirely curious as to what Xi's orders to Kim were on the surprise visit. It seems the snub earlier was entirely authentic but any pretense of autonomy is completely out the window now. The real question now is more than likely what does China want out of this. My guess is the same that we have seen in the past: time and any amount of withdrawal of US from Asia. It seems the path is trending that Kim is taking actions of good intention to make the talks legitimate and in a sense they will be .... for now. If Norkers didn't even make the weapons to begin with it really wouldn't matter if they destroyed some or all of them for the time being. They can continue to present a pretense of denuclearizing while getting the US to make any movements. Clearly they will push for a step by step process by each side. NK could theoretically demolish all of their nuclear weapons only to have China hand them some more the second they are ready for a fight. China gets time and some form of US concessions/minor withdrawal. I'm not sure how Kim's legitimacy within his country would fair for this route but if he is pursuing economic growth then China can easily provide that for any ding he may get on the short term repercussions of the talks.

thomasglee wrote:

CH86 wrote:

thomasglee wrote:
That's your thought. My thought is that Iran has them and has used the norKs to test them.

What's the purpose of Iran's Nuclear program at Bushehr and elsewhere, then.

They develop the nukes but then have them tested in north Korea by the norKs. It gives Iran plausible deniability.
Just a theory I've carried for quite some time. Having the norKs do the testing allows Iran to feign suspension of their program, thereby taking the head off and letting them get the money they got from the Obama administration. The norKs obtain hard currency for conducting the tests and Iran gets to see how their development is progressing.

But there is No Reason For either Iran or North Korea to Hide their capabilities. Being declared Nuclear powers would effectively Make both countries invulnerable to any preemptive strike under the existing unspoken rules. The open development of such capabilities would also make their threat credible.