John wrote: Sun Jun 05, 2022 9:22 pm** 05-Jun-2022 World View: Flurry of missile tests around North and South Korea
North Korea launched a barrage of short-range ballistic missiles on
Sunday. North Korea has conducted a flurry of missile launches this
year, from hypersonic weapons to test firing its largest
intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) for the first time in
nearly five years.
In response, South Korea and the United States fired eight
surface-to-surface missiles.
Tensions on the Korean peninsula continue to grow, and they'll grow
if, as expected, North Korea tests a nuclear weapon for the first time
in five years.
Meanwhile, China has been harassing and intercepting Australian
surveillance planes over international waters in the South China Sea.
Will war on the Korean peninsula occur before an attack on Taiwan?
It is highly unlikely China will invade Taiwan. The most prudent course of action would be for them to blockade the island and see how the US, Japan, et. al. react. It is not in their best interest to destroy the infrastructure of the island.
Having said that, the same goes for SK. Most likely (according to Nyquist, not my theory), China will attempt to get SK and Japan to capitulate as well. I don't see China having mercy on Japan, but I can see them holding off on Taiwan and SK.
Psalm 34:4 - “I sought the Lord, and he answered me and delivered me from all my fears.”
John wrote: Sun Jun 05, 2022 9:22 pm** 05-Jun-2022 World View: Flurry of missile tests around North and South Korea
North Korea launched a barrage of short-range ballistic missiles on
Sunday. North Korea has conducted a flurry of missile launches this
year, from hypersonic weapons to test firing its largest
intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) for the first time in
nearly five years.
In response, South Korea and the United States fired eight
surface-to-surface missiles.
Tensions on the Korean peninsula continue to grow, and they'll grow
if, as expected, North Korea tests a nuclear weapon for the first time
in five years.
Meanwhile, China has been harassing and intercepting Australian
surveillance planes over international waters in the South China Sea.
Will war on the Korean peninsula occur before an attack on Taiwan?
It is highly unlikely China will invade Taiwan. The most prudent course of action would be for them to blockade the island and see how the US, Japan, et. al. react. It is not in their best interest to destroy the infrastructure of the island.
Having said that, the same goes for SK. Most likely (according to Nyquist, not my theory), China will attempt to get SK and Japan to capitulate as well. I don't see China having mercy on Japan, but I can see them holding off on Taiwan and SK.
I don't see SK surrendering to the Chinese. They know it would be the end of their race.
As for Taiwan, the young know they would end up being murdered one way or the other. I think Taiwan will go the route of Ukraine and fight.
And Japan? They are a strong opponent, and the Japanese looked down on the Chinese. The Japanese will fight.
Will war on the Korean peninsula occur before an attack on Taiwan?
It is highly unlikely China will invade Taiwan. The most prudent course of action would be for them to blockade the island and see how the US, Japan, et. al. react. It is not in their best interest to destroy the infrastructure of the island.
Having said that, the same goes for SK. Most likely (according to Nyquist, not my theory), China will attempt to get SK and Japan to capitulate as well. I don't see China having mercy on Japan, but I can see them holding off on Taiwan and SK.
I don't see SK surrendering to the Chinese. They know it would be the end of their race.
As for Taiwan, the young know they would end up being murdered one way or the other. I think Taiwan will go the route of Ukraine and fight.
And Japan? They are a strong opponent, and the Japanese looked down on the Chinese. The Japanese will fight.
Capitulating doesn't mean surrendering, it just means choosing not to fight. SK is tied very closely to China as much of their MFG base is in China and they have a long history of siding together against Japan.
As for Taiwan, if China blockades Taiwan, are you suggesting Taiwan would attempt to attack China directly to thwart the blockade? It would be a losing battle.
Psalm 34:4 - “I sought the Lord, and he answered me and delivered me from all my fears.”
China accounts for more than one-sixth of the world's population, yet after four extraordinary decades in which the country’s population has swelled from 660 million to 1.4 billion, its population is on track to turn down this year, for the first time since the great famine of 1959-1961.
According to the latest figures from China's National Bureau of Statistics, China's population grew from 1.41212 billion to just 1.41260 billion in 2021 – a record low increase of just 480,000, a mere fraction of the annual growth of eight million or so common a decade ago.
While a reluctance to have children in the face of strict anti-Covid measures might have contributed to the slowdown in births, it has been coming for years.
China's total fertility rate (births per woman) was 2.6 in the late 1980s – well above the 2.1 needed to replace deaths. It has been between 1.6 and 1.7 since 1994, and slipped to 1.3 in 2020 and just 1.15 in 2021.
By way of comparison, in Australia and the United States the total fertility rate is 1.6 births per woman. In ageing Japan it is 1.3.
thomasglee wrote: Mon Jun 06, 2022 3:42 pm
Capitulating doesn't mean surrendering, it just means choosing not to fight. SK is tied very closely to China as much of their MFG base is in China and they have a long history of siding together against Japan.
I recall you previously going further than that and (perhaps correctly) suggesting that SK will fight... on the side of China. Do you still believe that will happen, or have you changed your mind and now believe SK will remain neutral?
thomasglee wrote: Mon Jun 06, 2022 3:42 pm
As for Taiwan, if China blockades Taiwan, are you suggesting Taiwan would attempt to attack China directly to thwart the blockade? It would be a losing battle.
I wouldn't put it past Biden to try to get Taiwan to attack China first.
thomasglee wrote: Mon Jun 06, 2022 3:42 pm
Capitulating doesn't mean surrendering, it just means choosing not to fight. SK is tied very closely to China as much of their MFG base is in China and they have a long history of siding together against Japan.
I recall you previously going further than that and (perhaps correctly) suggesting that SK will fight... on the side of China. Do you still believe that will happen, or have you changed your mind and now believe SK will remain neutral?
thomasglee wrote: Mon Jun 06, 2022 3:42 pm
As for Taiwan, if China blockades Taiwan, are you suggesting Taiwan would attempt to attack China directly to thwart the blockade? It would be a losing battle.
I wouldn't put it past Biden to try to get Taiwan to attack China first.
I have mixed feelings, but I suspect if Korea had to choose between fighting with Japan or with China, they would pick China.
Psalm 34:4 - “I sought the Lord, and he answered me and delivered me from all my fears.”
thomasglee wrote: Mon Jun 06, 2022 6:26 pm
I have mixed feelings, but I suspect if Korea had to choose between fighting with Japan or with China, they would pick China.
I concur. While the old Industrial Age rivalries were real enough, lately it has been autocracies against democracies. On the other hand, the autocracies have been the aggressor.
thomasglee wrote: Mon Jun 06, 2022 6:26 pm
I have mixed feelings, but I suspect if Korea had to choose between fighting with Japan or with China, they would pick China.
I concur. While the old Industrial Age rivalries were real enough, lately it has been autocracies against democracies. On the other hand, the autocracies have been the aggressor.
He's talking about both Koreas, not just the North. He's talking about South Korea, a democracy, siding with China, an autocracy, against Japan, another democracy.
thomasglee wrote: Mon Jun 06, 2022 6:26 pm
I have mixed feelings, but I suspect if Korea had to choose between fighting with Japan or with China, they would pick China.
I concur. While the old Industrial Age rivalries were real enough, lately it has been autocracies against democracies. On the other hand, the autocracies have been the aggressor.
He's talking about both Koreas, not just the North. He's talking about South Korea, a democracy, siding with China, an autocracy, against Japan, another democracy.
Or do you consider South Korea an autocracy?
Yes, to clarify, I am talking about Korea (south Korea). Historically, Korea tends to side with China more than Japan. Historically, Korea is always caught in the middle and has to choose the side they believe will win. Japan has no chance against China, so I do believe it is highly likely that, if push came to shove, Korea would side with China.
Psalm 34:4 - “I sought the Lord, and he answered me and delivered me from all my fears.”
