Generational theory, international history and current events
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Nominally, China would be the major power, autocracy and therefore the aggressor. If you want to side with the winner, you would go with China. Lately? China has economic, Covid, dam, demographic, real estate and debt problems, along with friction along just about every border they have. I'm not sure it would be a big win for them to start something right now, but they need a distraction from their many troubles really bad.thomasglee wrote: Tue Jun 07, 2022 10:17 am Yes, to clarify, I am talking about Korea (south Korea). Historically, Korea tends to side with China more than Japan. Historically, Korea is always caught in the middle and has to choose the side they believe will win. Japan has no chance against China, so I do believe it is highly likely that, if push came to shove, Korea would side with China.
All of China's "issues" you cited are exactly why it is in their interest to "start something". Communists love their power (all authoritarian leaders love their power) and want to hold onto it.Bob Butler wrote: Tue Jun 07, 2022 3:58 pmNominally, China would be the major power, autocracy and therefore the aggressor. If you want to side with the winner, you would go with China. Lately? China has economic, Covid, dam, demographic, real estate and debt problems, along with friction along just about every border they have. I'm not sure it would be a big win for them to start something right now, but they need a distraction from their many troubles really bad.thomasglee wrote: Tue Jun 07, 2022 10:17 am Yes, to clarify, I am talking about Korea (south Korea). Historically, Korea tends to side with China more than Japan. Historically, Korea is always caught in the middle and has to choose the side they believe will win. Japan has no chance against China, so I do believe it is highly likely that, if push came to shove, Korea would side with China.
Toward the west for sure. But then again, they love the money that comes with working with China. Culture appreciation can and does change quickly.FullMoon wrote: Tue Jun 07, 2022 4:52 pm Perhaps it depends on when and how the US acts, the direction of their expedient alliance will be.
Thomas, did you find the S. Koreans cultural affinity stronger towards the west, China or a mixed bag?
Would you gamble they'd give up their current lifestyle for one more closely aligned with the Chinese as their brethren in the North? Those who survive that long to enjoy their insects and plagues, of course.thomasglee wrote: Tue Jun 07, 2022 6:15 pmToward the west for sure. But then again, they love the money that comes with working with China. Culture appreciation can and does change quickly.FullMoon wrote: Tue Jun 07, 2022 4:52 pm Perhaps it depends on when and how the US acts, the direction of their expedient alliance will be.
Thomas, did you find the S. Koreans cultural affinity stronger towards the west, China or a mixed bag?
It depends on what security guarantees (promises) are made. Throughout history the emperor of Korea was emperor in Korea, yet when he would go to Peking, he was only recognized as a prince. I could see a similar situation lining up today. The leader of Korea would be the leader of Korea, but would know he is subservient to the leadership in China. I could see China forcing the unification of Korea under southern leadership. Or perhaps keeping Korea divided, but allowing SK to use NK’s cheap labor. We have to remember that Korea was always divided along clans. Even today in South Korea the country is divided in many ways and in many ways they still view their clan as more important than anything else. You have Kyungjoo Kim’s and Challado Lee’s for example. It’s hard to explain if you’re not familiar with the natural divisions that already and historically exist. We tend to look at Koreans as all being the same, but they’re not.FullMoon wrote: Tue Jun 07, 2022 9:03 pmWould you gamble they'd give up their current lifestyle for one more closely aligned with the Chinese as their brethren in the North? Those who survive that long to enjoy their insects and plagues, of course.thomasglee wrote: Tue Jun 07, 2022 6:15 pmToward the west for sure. But then again, they love the money that comes with working with China. Culture appreciation can and does change quickly.FullMoon wrote: Tue Jun 07, 2022 4:52 pm Perhaps it depends on when and how the US acts, the direction of their expedient alliance will be.
Thomas, did you find the S. Koreans cultural affinity stronger towards the west, China or a mixed bag?
I grew up in Korea and after a long sojourn abroad, I now live in Korea again.thomasglee wrote: Tue Jun 07, 2022 9:48 pmIt depends on what security guarantees (promises) are made. Throughout history the emperor of Korea was emperor in Korea, yet when he would go to Peking, he was only recognized as a prince. I could see a similar situation lining up today. The leader of Korea would be the leader of Korea, but would know he is subservient to the leadership in China. I could see China forcing the unification of Korea under southern leadership. Or perhaps keeping Korea divided, but allowing SK to use NK’s cheap labor. We have to remember that Korea was always divided along clans. Even today in South Korea the country is divided in many ways and in many ways they still view their clan as more important than anything else. You have Kyungjoo Kim’s and Challado Lee’s for example. It’s hard to explain if you’re not familiar with the natural divisions that already and historically exist. We tend to look at Koreans as all being the same, but they’re not.FullMoon wrote: Tue Jun 07, 2022 9:03 pmWould you gamble they'd give up their current lifestyle for one more closely aligned with the Chinese as their brethren in the North? Those who survive that long to enjoy their insects and plagues, of course.thomasglee wrote: Tue Jun 07, 2022 6:15 pm
Toward the west for sure. But then again, they love the money that comes with working with China. Culture appreciation can and does change quickly.