Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Navigator wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:16 pm

Cool Breeze wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:39 am What's your range for the start of WW3? Within 3-5 years? Or 5-10 years?

I would say within no more than 1.5 years. I think this October may be more like it, and am preparing for that.

I think the economy will go south very soon, and war will follow shortly thereafter. The Chinese will want to move before the Biden presidency is over, even better for them if the Democrats control congress.

thomasglee wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:23 pm

Navigator wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:16 pm

Cool Breeze wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:39 am What's your range for the start of WW3? Within 3-5 years? Or 5-10 years?

I would say within no more than 1.5 years. I think this October may be more like it, and am preparing for that.

I think the economy will go south very soon, and war will follow shortly thereafter. The Chinese will want to move before the Biden presidency is over, even better for them if the Democrats control congress.

I'm in full agreement (and also preparing).

Navigator wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:16 pm

Cool Breeze wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:39 am What's your range for the start of WW3? Within 3-5 years? Or 5-10 years?

I would say within no more than 1.5 years. I think this October may be more like it, and am preparing for that.

I think the economy will go south very soon, and war will follow shortly thereafter. The Chinese will want to move before the Biden presidency is over, even better for them if the Democrats control congress.

Cool Breeze wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 4:14 pm

Navigator wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:16 pm

Cool Breeze wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:39 am What's your range for the start of WW3? Within 3-5 years? Or 5-10 years?

I would say within no more than 1.5 years. I think this October may be more like it, and am preparing for that.

I think the economy will go south very soon, and war will follow shortly thereafter. The Chinese will want to move before the Biden presidency is over, even better for them if the Democrats control congress.

Ok, thanks for the update.

Tom Mazanec wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 4:59 pm > The four horsemen of the apocalypse - opinion
> We are nearing the death of the old geopolitical system and of the
> world order that has kept repeating itself from the medieval ages.
> By VAS SHENOY Published: JUNE 25, 2022 15:52
> Updated: JUNE 26, 2022 05:33
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-710365

• Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, an 1887 painting by Viktor Vasnetsov.

Xeraphim1 wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 4:26 pm > The problem with this is that the Chinese tend to be risk averse,
> more so than Russia. Trying to take Taiwan would be very difficult
> since China does not have the troop lift to move soldiers. Much
> would have to be done by civilian shipping which is hideously
> vulnerable to any kind of weapon and Taiwan has a lot of anti-ship
> missiles. Capturing a port would be necessary to support any
> sizable invasion and those would be under constant artillery
> attack if not destroyed deliberately. A failed invasion would be
> much more damaging to the CCP than not launching one. Destroying
> the entire island and killing all the people would also not be a
> win.

> While it's important to look at desires and intentions, it's also
> important to look at capabilities and it seems people here keep
> skipping that part.

John wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 5:29 pm
As I've said in the past, this kind of reasoning is way too logical.
Leaders today are insane, not rational. If leaders in a generational
Crisis era were rational and logical, then the Confederacy would not
have attacked Fort Sumter, and Japan would not have bombed Pearl
Harbor.

Tom Mazanec wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:53 pm

thomasglee wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:23 pm

Navigator wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:16 pm

I would say within no more than 1.5 years. I think this October may be more like it, and am preparing for that.

I think the economy will go south very soon, and war will follow shortly thereafter. The Chinese will want to move before the Biden presidency is over, even better for them if the Democrats control congress.

I'm in full agreement (and also preparing).

So if WWIII is likely to start October, and the Greater Depression (?) is shortly before, "very soon" is probably within three months!

Xeraphim1 wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 7:35 pm

John wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 5:29 pm
As I've said in the past, this kind of reasoning is way too logical.
Leaders today are insane, not rational. If leaders in a generational
Crisis era were rational and logical, then the Confederacy would not
have attacked Fort Sumter, and Japan would not have bombed Pearl
Harbor.

Both the slave South and Japan saw themselves facing existential crises. The South was falling further and further behind in economic terms while the free population and states was growing. It was becoming more and more unlikely that additional slave states would be added so each additional year would see the South's weakness increase. Japan was facing the same situation due to US sanctions with the loss of steel scrap and oil imports. Japan could not continue its war in China without replacements. Even if they were unlikely to succeed, the future looked worse.

I don't see China as being in the same situation. There are no essential resources in Taiwan other than high tech companies who do a lot of their production in China already. Destroying those would not bring any benefit to China while facing the same kind of sanctions now applied to Russia would lead to ruination. Russia can survive, kind of. China is already facing unrest since the CCP is not able to fulfill its part of the social contract by providing increasing living standards. War would not fix that and there is no sign that martial adventures would give the CCP the boost it might need. Especially if it can't guarantee that it would win. Waiting 5-10 years could make a difference though. Maybe.

Yes, the CCP leadership may not be sane, but it also isn't stupid and it tends to engage in incrementalism. But I admit I could be wrong.