http://advisorperspectives.com/commenta ... 022114.php
https://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-repo ... ll-indexes
The raw data in the spreadsheet of the WLI available from ECRI in the second link compares fairly well to the peaks in the stock market. It may be that stock prices are a component of the data or it may be for other reasons, as the data does not generally correlate that well with the stock market, only the peaks in the data do.
From the spreadsheet, the following peaks occurred in the WLI:
June 8, 2007 143.9, July 13, 2007 143.3, October 12, 2007 140.4
Series of lower highs while the stock market made a series of higher highs on June 4, 2007, July 19, 2007 and October 11, 2007
April 30, 2010 135.3
Stock market high on April 26, 2010
April 15, 2011 131.9
Stock market high on May 2, 2011
January 10, 2014 134.2
Stock market high on January 15, 2014
Current Reading 132.2
One obvious question would be: Did the WLI drop more than 2 points from its peak at any time prior to the stock market making a new high? The answer is yes. Before the May 2, 2011 high the WLI fell 2.5 points from its April 15, 2011 peak on April 29, 2011.
The WLI also peaked before the stock market sometimes in the 1960s and 1970s, but not normally. In 1968, the WLI peaked on November 29 while the stock market peaked on December 3. But more often than not, the WLI peaked after the stock market in the 1960s and 1970s. The stock market was leading the data in those decades most of the time, whereas now it is following most of the time. For example, the important 1973 peak in the stock market was on January 14, while the WLI peaked on February 23.
Anyway, the balance of the data is starting to suggest that the economy and stock market may be rolling over in a normal "business as usual" cycle. As one example, the S&P 600 small cap ETF, SLY, made its high on November 29 of last year.