Buffett: I'd be 'surprised' if stock prices drop 50%
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffett-i ... 42587.html
Buffett got to where he got to by being overly optimistic at a time in history where being overly optimistic paid off. If Buffett lives another 10 years, he may in fact live long enough to see the stock market go to zero, and go from rags to riches and back to rags. He will be "surprised a lot" more.
At no time, ever, in the history of the world has an economy or population of anything grown in excess of 3% per year compounded for an entire working span of a long human lifetime, except exactly during the entire working span of Warren Buffett's long life. And he thinks this is normal? Normal growth in an ecological or human system is far below 1%.
It is a carnival atmosphere and Buffett is the head barker. CNBC is a media outlet devoted to airing the views of carnival barkers.
In the graph of world population below, the world population was 600 million in the year 1700 and 150 million in 200 BC. It grew 4 fold over 1900 years. On the graph I show exactly how to calculate the compound annual growth rate from those numbers. The compound annual growth rate over that long time span is less than 1/10 of one percent. Moving backward in time previous to 200 BC, it's probably even less.
(600/150) raised to the power of (1/1900) is 1.00072989. The percentage growth rate is then that number minus 1 multiplied by 100, or 0.072989 percent compound annual growth.
Looking at a more recent part of the graph, the compound annual growth rate of world population from 1700 to 1900 was 0.49%.
Between 1900 and 1950 it was 0.87%.
Only since the end of World War 2 has world population grown in excess of 1% per year, ever, and now it is slowing back down to sub 1%.
Can a stock market, which is dependent on economic growth, rise in the face of zero population growth? I don't think it can even exist, much less rise. World stock markets in fact barely existed before world population began to rise at rates greater than 1% after World War 2.

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