Financial topics

[aedens]

The problem is H they pretend to understand.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.inf ... e37936.htm
Lets call it for what it was. Both sides use direct measures and one got called out and must now pay the price. This is called today Ukraine. We know who are the most dangerous pricks and all sides have them on payroll. To be clear saecular entropy comes with speeding tickets from neo con retards. Buffet is correct in the context he made it clear on about image in the group. They just rendered themselves institutionalized and now powerless pulling this same five billion dollar playbook of murder for political mayhem. I will never vote for r or d ever since one allows it and the other watches as the people suffer. We just defined evil and on a given day one is the same as the other on any given day. St. Augustine was clear and correct on the fact as they walk in circles only. Piss on them both but that cannot eliminate parsites either. Be so independant and live in the light of the carpenter so they are blinded. Sure we make mistakes in life and that millstone is not around our necks as simple men wishing to be left alone to prosper as free men. The wife will teach the younger to garden and think and I will supply what they need to prosper as long as I am able to reflect on the good thing freely given under the Sun. We will bake our bread so some can find what they seek in the World. Quantitative easing destroyed jobs by destroying consumer demand on purposes already unfolded for some time just as mindless tort law afficts even more. The local experts finally figured out the employment rate will increase around one percent for some years now they say. I find that an optimistic number with what is actually going on. Next we will watch the mergers, and have in sectors already the last legs of Corportism funded from what we know already that is the bent of mind behind these political demogogues who are on the payroll as the thought we are from the governement here to help. As your chart indicated we are watching the disconnect of fiat speculation to the historical anchor over thousands of years called currency of actual intrinsic value. They are not to be trusted and time focuses clealy the actual truth to the matters at hand.

[Higgenbotham]

The End of the Great Age

Population Trends and the Value of Equities

If world population stabilizes and even declines during the twenty-first century as some demographers now predict, and if global corporate earnings continue to be correlated with population growth, under current investment theory the intrinsic value of equities, as an investment class, will decline.

The logic is as follows:

1.The value of equities depends on the future stream of dividends.

2.The future stream of dividends depends on future profits.

3.Future profits (for the entire economy) depend on the size of the population.

4.Therefore, if population growth halts or enters into decline, this is likely to have a negative effect on the value of equities.

Much of the theoretical value of stocks depends on dividend payouts that will occur fifty to one hundred years hence.

Plugging negative growth parameters into John Burr William’s equations leads to rapidly decreasing theoretical values for equities.

At some point, with sufficient negative growth, stocks become worthless, except perhaps for residual value of assets on liquidation.

If dividend and earnings growth becomes stable or negative, market capitalization of securities traded on the New York Stock Exchange may enter into permanent decline.

The End of the Common Stock Legend?

The Common Stock Legend will become a just another curious fairy tale, and future generations may have difficulty understanding how their ancestors could have been misled by such a fanciful myth.

http://www.capital-flow-analysis.com/in ... n_18a.html

[aedens]

http://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/f ... eggers.pdf

As I noted babtists and bootleggers some time ago on affairs many disregard.
Even when you explain it to the public they still cannot understand barrier costs.
Bootleggers show up in Baptist costumes and taxpayers still wonder why cost
are out of reach. As thinking business knows since Sumer and clay tablets please raise taxes
because it eliminates hiring so arbiters running the show can maintain that flag just as the trains
used to run on time in Italia.

[Higgenbotham]

How will these trends impact the economy?

A useful starting point is to note that GDP can be decomposed into three factors: output per hour worked (labor productivity), the average number of hours worked (labor utilization), and the total number of workers (working-age population).

Q12013-Formula.png (32.13 KiB) Viewed 3157 times

Labor utilization has been declining very slowly for decades and is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future; in the U.S., it declined about 0.1% annually on average for the past three decades. This factor is so small that its effect on the long-term growth rate of GDP will be minor.

In the U.S., the working-age population (ages 15-64) has grown approximately 1.2% per year on average for the past three decades, while real GDP has grown 2.8%. Looking forward over the next two decades, the working-age population is expected to grow at approximately 0.3% annually, almost one percentage point lower. If the other factors remain constant, real GDP would slow down to around 2%.

http://noesis-capital.com/research/1st-quarter-2013/

In other words, Projected Future GDP growth = Productivity Growth + 0.3%

That assumes there are no slack factors that prevent the working age population from being employed at past rates, which appears to be an optimistic and faulty assumption. Assuming that assumption does hold, the demographics are putting an upper bound on GDP growth of about 1% lower than in the past decades.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/PRS85006092

Annual productivity growth per BLS was 1.5% in 2012 and 0.6% in 2013.

[aedens]

http://www.abb.com/

[Higgenbotham]

http://www.abb.com/

A last point.

That a social shift is coming seems obvious to me, as robotics replace humans in industrial production we are going to see massive numbers of people with no job they are capable of performing. The distribution system will break down due to the simple fact that you can't store goods forever, they have to be removed from the supply pipeline. Either we will create "jobs" as we have done in the past that have little relation to true need for those jobs, or we'll give up and simply distribute goods. Or we could see a decline in population over the next 50 years - much depends on what exactly is done by governments and what the resulting attitudes of the citizens are.

OR we could deurbanize, recolonize the remaining fertile lands, resuscitate the marginal and degraded or poisoned lands, and create an economy where human beings can actually feed, clothe, shelter, and heal themselves without an advanced degree and permission from the imperial senate. There is no need for us to be dependant plebians! The productivity of the land and modern technology is enough for us all to live comfortably, with dignity, and well, with robots as our assistants rather than our replacements.

I think she's right that that's the only way out but in any case it would mean the end of the growth paradigm. Robotics is another tragedy of the commons issue because, while a company might be able to save money by replacing a human with a robot, the cost the welfare benefits that human will then need to receive is not accounted for, nor is the fact that the humans will be consuming less of the products that the industries that displace them produce.

[aedens]

And there you have it: if you are buying a house, enjoy the low mortgage (for now... and don't forget - if and when the time comes to sell, the buyer better be able to afford your selling price and the monthly mortgage payment should the 30 Year mortgage rise from the current 4.2% to 6%, 7% or much higher, which all those who forecast an improving economy hope happens), but what will really determine the affordability of that piece of property you have your eyes set on, are the property taxes.

Because they are about to skyrocket.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-1 ... read-first

A house built just before the crash built for 200k now just on the repo market is 93k
I just looked at it on one acre. I pity the next owners whos taxes will go up 300 percent
Even my youngest 25 year old mentioned they are sitting on there ass since why work
for $10.85 per hour since the section 8 free shit army get more doing nothing at all.

I think by august the cartel banks will blow up the system on purpose since they own the senate for decades.
Ask yourself why over twenty bankers and a wall street reporter simply are murdered. The taxes will stay the same
as the dollar gets devalued by a massive amount thereby a stealth tax. Are they so corupt by the progressives of fact
owned by the energy cartels now asserting genocidal pipeline wars, or are most so utterly removed from reality they
cannot understand. I think the point is simply the trains run on time in Italia attitude and profound taxpayer
stupidity of epic historical fact of design. As it was said you do not need to empty there head just put in what
you want since they are unable of critical thought. Ask any professor what is coming in these days and vast portion will
convey they have no critical thinking skills. As we know in the GD context the culture wars have been over.
I will hazzard to say the dark ages are already here.

[Higgenbotham]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-1 ... read-first

A house built just before the crash built for 200k now on the repo market is 93k
I just looked at it on one acre. I pity the next owners whose taxes will go up 300 percent. Even my youngest 25 year old mentioned they are sitting on there ass since why work
for $10.85 per hour since the section 8 free shit army get more doing nothing at all.

I'd never buy a house today - not a chance. I'd live in a tent or a tarp in the wilds of Montana before I'd buy a house. The most obvious reason I wouldn't is not even the subject of that article. It's that when the collapse occurs and the population thins out there will be a massive oversupply of housing and squatting will be rampant. Anybody who needs a place to live will be able to pick one out and live there - for free. If the local warlord tries to extract payment, you can pack up and move on.

[Higgenbotham]

Ask yourself why over twenty bankers and a wall street reporter simply are murdered.

I will hazard to say the dark ages are already here.

In 2007 the initial signs were ABCP markets froze up and the CDO funds went bankrupt. Those assets were out in the public venue, let's say. It was public information when it occurred. Personally I think with the rise in rates over the past 10 months the OTC interest rate derivatives time bomb has already gone off, it's just that only those in the underworld of finance know it, and some of those who know too much or are perceived to have loose lips are getting bumped off.

I would tend to agree with your second statement. In my view it's a lock that the world is entering a new dark age. But still we'll need to see a collapse and lights out in the financial and political centers of New York and Washington to say that it has officially begun as the place future historians may mark as the fall into the new dark age. I say may because it isn't known for sure if there will be any future historians left with the ability to mark the event.

[Reality Check]

Russia may be shifting its Treasury bond holdings out of the Fed and into offshore accounts.

Why not just getting out of bonds?

Are we sure they did not, for all, or some of the bonds ?

Once the bonds were out of the FED:

Registered U.S. bonds could be traded, or sold, to parties who were not threatened with sanctions, for cash, commodities or even unregistered U.S. bonds.

Unregistered U.S. bonds ( bearer bonds ) could be held in any location that was opaque to the U.S. government, and cashed in at anytime though an agent not under sanctions.

The first step would be to get them out of the control ( and the sight ) of any financial institution subject to U.S. laws ( like the FED ). Any such financial institution will become a privater with a warrant to seize all assets of Russia, wherever they may be found, in the event Obama ever carries out his threats.