Financial topics

[aedens]

Themes of collapse exist, 11 major ones (PS. Diamond has 5). 1) Depletion or cessation of vital
resources; 2) establishment of new resource base; 3) insurmountable catastrophe; 4) insufficient
response to circumstance; 5) other complex societies; 6) intruders; 7) class conflict, societal
contradictions, elite mismanagement; 8) social dysfunction; 9) mystical factors; 10) chance
concatenation of events; 11) economic factors. tainter

human history is divided into three phases: (1)pre-industrial, (2)industrial, and (3)de-industrial.

Eco-Communalism movements add up to a sustainable world or globally coordinated efforts and initiatives result
in a new sustainability paradigm.

The Kardashev scale classifies civilizations based on their level of technological advancement, specifically measured by the amount
of energy a civilization is able to harness.

Nuclear will kill us all with a probable x class flare or what we already know on multiple disaster sites removed from public query
in many Nations.
As we noted with data fragility no accurate data is released.

As it was noted one day it just stopped working...... Amos already covered it.

Tainter, J.A., 2006, Archaeology of overshoot and collapse: Annual
Review of Anthropology, v. 35, p. 59–74, doi: 10.1146/annurev.
anthro.35.081705.123136.

I think some may remember Hadrian as seen from Aelius Spartianus point of view. "Those men whom he saw to be poor and innocent he enriched of his
own accord, but those who had become rich through sharp practice he actually regarded with hatred."

I have concluded they are to arrogated to survive given the litany of abuses.

So simple even I get it is maximizing total payoff is not the same as maximizing the average total payoff.

[vincecate]

It would be really tough in my opinion to create and supply the energy to an army of robots that could do all required human jobs. On the other hand, are they dumb enough to try, and really screw things up irreversibly in the process? You betcha.

An army of armed quadcopter drones will soon make a regular infantry obsolete. Noah, below, wrote how for hundreds of years men with guns were sort of the real key in any conflict, and this can all change when there are cheap small flying robots with guns. If you mass produce flying robots for under $1000 that can hold and shoot a gun, this seems a fundamental change.

The Robot Lords and the end of People Power
http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2014 ... power.html

[Higgenbotham]

It would be really tough in my opinion to create and supply the energy to an army of robots that could do all required human jobs. On the other hand, are they dumb enough to try, and really screw things up irreversibly in the process? You betcha.

An army of armed quadcopter drones will soon make a regular infantry obsolete. Noah, below, wrote how for hundreds of years men with guns were sort of the real key in any conflict, and this can all change when there are cheap small flying robots with guns. If you mass produce flying robots for under $1000 that can hold and shoot a gun, this seems a fundamental change.

The Robot Lords and the end of People Power
http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2014 ... power.html

I don't think it will be possible to make robots that can do all required human jobs (through the entire economy) before it is possible to make robots that can perform the job of infantryman and, in other words, defeat a human with a gun in battle. Given that's the case, this will not stop people from making these robots, allowing the process to spin out of control, and really screwing things up irreversibly in the process of doing that.

[Higgenbotham]

There are probably a dozen scenarios whereby the human race can exterminate itself via the development of robots for military purposes. Here is one:

The Pentagon develops a robot that can outperform a human in a gun battle, tests it, and quickly puts it into mass production. Chinese and Russian intelligence have been monitoring the development of this robot and are aware that a successful prototype has been built and tested. They have been stealing as much of the technology as they can in a frantic effort to get a similar prototype built, tested and put into production. Now that the robot has been put into production in the US, further panic ensues. The CIA has been monitoring the Chinese and Russian responses and combined Chinese and Russian intelligence are aware of the level and sophistication of monitoring, as well as the shortfalls. A plan is devised whereby the Chinese leadership contacts the Russian leadership and discusses their response, aware that the NSA is monitoring the conversation. The Chinese and the Russian leaderships discuss the option of launching a full scale nuclear attack and the NSA collects information indicating that they will wait 10 days before discussing or deciding anything further. In the discussion, there is further indication that the Chinese and Russians are not yet completely aware of how much progess has made in the production of the robot force, which is scheduled to be deployed in 4 days. The NSA quickly disseminates this information to top Pentagon officials and there is a huge sigh of relief in Washington. The Chinese leadership then secretly goes to Moscow and meets Russian leadership in a soundproof underground bunker that is unknown to CIA operatives and cannot be penetrated by the NSA, and there the real meeting takes place. There, it is decided to launch a full scale combined Russian and Chinese nuclear attack that night.

[Higgenbotham]

I saw this in one of the forums and did some editing on it.

Crime is better off above the law and that has been achievable by means of the revolving door between the multinationals and the regulators, lobbying, campaign finance, etc. This is not a normal bubble. Crime here is like a locust swarm that destroys a field and then disappears after all of the vegetation is gone. This crime will be over when there is clear evidence the economy has been destroyed. Crime is probably exiting the stock market now. All others will scramble for the exits like people trapped in a burning building.

The comments we've made here about dark age theory and the discussion last night of the NASA study would be a more technical discussion of the situation. I hesitate to use the word crime because it is sort of like discussions of solvency, but more so. Crime can be whatever those in positions of authority say it is. Something that breaks the ten commandments, for example, can be legal and therefore not a crime in a political arrangement if the people in charge say it is, regardless of how immoral or destructive it may be. This is where most people get confused because they are taught from an early age that authorities are legitimate. Therefore, it is difficult and takes a long time to make the connection between "QE" and "Thou shalt not steal", for example, even if that is plainly what it is. When the authorites steal from the common citizens that is what creates wealth disparity and makes a dark age possible, if the process becomes irreversible.

[aedens]

We must entertain the irony of rational fatalism since it leaves little room for moralization in the affairs of the dismal science we convey as economics. We have defined the word economics and indeed it means little to so many given the point it is not what is in there heads but what has been layered in. Hari Seldon who Asminov envisioned from Gibbons rise and fall as few do consider an accurate invective glean the hopes that his Plan will "reduce 30,000 years of Dark Ages and barbarism to a single millennium," a goal of exceptional moral gravity. This decends to the needed 16 million shades of gray as you correctly State. Thou shall not steal, unless we say so to save you from yourself. Pulp fiction is the said effect just as the old school Carney press release today that they do not know how many paid into the big lie just as Platos utopic copper, bronze, and golden level of the Statist vision to the division of labor which is simple Fuedal debauchery. As we know many will not understand even when Plato understood and that is just what it is. Totalitarian political systems masquerading as a religion since moderates understand confusion shelters corruption so it is just that simple all over. This foray is just the order of things to consider when you ingore the owners manual your bent of mind has consequences not listening, or to be clear allowing the time for that bent of mind to destoy what thousands of years of actual civilization has provided. As it was said clearly it will be taken also, just as the hand writing on the wall we can acept as a known effect. Who, as Job was questioned controls Leviathon will show the actual bent of mind to understand what is just. As we know opinion is not having all the facts so pay ferryman as we warned on who was allowed to see this current rendition of affairs.

"The rules of morality are not the conclusions of our reason." - David Hume

[Higgenbotham]

We must entertain the irony of rational fatalism since it leaves little room for moralization in the affairs of the dismal science we convey as economics.

That brought up an interesting idea, which was to do a google search for "QE is immoral" and see how many results were obtained. Only 4 results. In a world comprised of 7 billion people there were only 4 who thought to utter the phrase "QE is immoral" and post it on the Internet. Moving on to "QE is stealing" brings up 122 results. Still a relatively rare thought. "QE is theft" brings up 3590. Notice we are moving in increments of 30 fold. The Bible clearly uses the word "steal" in the Commandments. I think it creates dissonance in any individual who is taught that authorities are legitimate, as most all are, to use that particular word in connection with an edict.

[aedens]

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh/pdf/crimea-river

To be considered another page in a dire region of past untold miserys.

Remember those red dots we were going to get back to? Well, they represent the.....

[Higgenbotham]

We must entertain the irony of rational fatalism since it leaves little room for moralization in the affairs of the dismal science we convey as economics. We have defined the word economics and indeed it means little to so many given the point it is not what is in there heads but what has been layered in. Hari Seldon who Asminov envisioned from Gibbons rise and fall as few do consider an accurate invective glean the hopes that his Plan will "reduce 30,000 years of Dark Ages and barbarism to a single millennium," a goal of exceptional moral gravity. This decends to the needed 16 million shades of gray as you correctly State. Thou shall not steal, unless we say so to save you from yourself.

It's also interesting to take a further look at what a commenter to a London Telegraph article had to say in addition to that statement. Here is the full comment:

QE is immoral. It rewards those who have spent too much by devaluing their debts. It hammers those who have worked, balanced the books, and saved for a better life. It reduces the incentives for any sort of economic activity. But, due to massive mismanagement of the economy by previous governments and their close relationship with banks (with their taxpayer guaranteed funding), there is probably little choice right now - many people and organisations were simply allowed (by governments) to borrow too much.

But the debt crisis is global (and banks' operations) so coordinated international action is needed. It seems like the Eurozone is making a better stab at tackling the debt crisis, by insisting on reforms in bail-out countries. Painful, but setting the stage for a better future.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... qus_thread

Summary:
"QE is immoral. Previous governments have massively mismanaged the economy. I support the authority of the same organization which has massively mismanaged the economy in the past to implement a perceived solution which is immoral. I am optimistic about the future."

This is a pretty accurate illustration of human nature and the human condition, and why rise and fall is inevitable.

Furthermore, the concept of psychohistory, which gives the events in the story a sense of rational fatalism, leaves little room for moralization. Hari Seldon himself hopes that his Plan will "reduce 30,000 years of Dark Ages and barbarism to a single millennium," a goal of exceptional moral gravity. Yet events within it are often treated as inevitable and necessary, rather than deviations from the greater good.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundation_series

Interesting.

[Higgenbotham]

The Robot Lords and the end of People Power
http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2014 ... power.html

I read that article in Quartz a couple days ago.

There are at least three things that he missed. He is assuming repression gets cheaper and cheaper. Not true at all. The cost of energy and materials has fallen for 5 centuries relatively as the economy has gotten larger, more complex and more benign. When that reverses and things get ugly, the cost of energy and materials will rise relatively and the supposed masters will be unable to afford to build and maintain an army of robots sufficient to suppress 7 billion people, or even a billion if that's all that are immediately left. Second, he talks about the 10 centuries prior to the advent of the gunpowder revolution and how those were generally repressive. There was a process of decline and fall before things were able to get configured into that arrangement. Something semi-stable like that will probably happen again but it's not so immediate in the future. Before it does happen we'll see the more mundane like Homeland Security rumbling through the streets putting down riots and protests with human controlled repression, just better versions of what the common man can equip himself with. This will go on for as long as the US government is calling the shots. After that, nobody except local warlords will be calling the shots for a long time to come. Third, the rich, in their idleness enjoy the playthings that only humans can provide, like cruises, yachts, hookers, and underage sex. Things will have to worsen considerably before they will contemplate exterminating the playthings they use for their pleasure. It would be really boring having sex with an underage robot.

http://conservativebyte.com/2014/03/har ... -children/

The other aspect that fits into the process is population loss and how and where it occurs. It seems like the chances are high that the centers of wealth will be wiped out and the proportion of wealthy will decrease, similar to how Rome went from 800,000 to 25,000 in population or less at the nadir of the Dark Ages. Most of the survivors of any population decline scenario I can think of will be in the rural areas of the world, or dispersed into the rural areas. The wealthy and powerful who do survive will also need to disperse into those areas and when they do their collective ability to conspire, plan and control will disappear along with their Bilderberger, CFR, and Davos meetings. Bush bought land in Paraguay, I assume so he can escape there when things go downhill. After a few decades or centuries the wealthy will be able to reorganize themselves, similar to a few centuries after the peak of Rome.

Having said all that doesn't mean the military won't try to develop battlefield robots in the nearer future and really screw things up that way, even if they are technically successful, which is possible. For the rich to be able to get control of an army of robots sufficient for their own purposes, as the author of the Quartz article describes, even if such an army can theoretically be produced (as in the technology is proven), is another matter that is more complicated to attain than military use, which is complicated enough.