Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Might be a stupid question, Cool Breeze, but which party do you think will have 55 in the Senate?

Tom Mazanec wrote: Sun Jul 31, 2022 1:30 pm Might be a stupid question, Cool Breeze, but which party do you think will have 55 in the Senate?

R

More stats on how sanctions are affecting Russia:

Russia June industrial production –1.2% y/y, 0% m/m
Manufacturing –4.5%
Natural gas –32.8%
Cigarettes –32.4%
AC motors –12.3%
Lead batteries –21.8%
Fiberoptic cables–79.6%
Fridges–52.3%
Elevators –59.9%
Passenger cars –89%
Trucks –40%
Freight cars –34.4%

https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediaban ... -2022.html

Freight transportation in June
–5.8% y/y (railways –2.7%, air freight –83.1%…)

Gee Xeraphim, only 1.2%? Disappointed but wondering how it could be so small in view of the following statistics.

Tom Mazanec wrote: Sun Jul 31, 2022 3:38 pm Gee Xeraphim, only 1.2%? Disappointed but wondering how it could be so small in view of the following statistics.

They're official Russian figures so...

Xeraphim1 wrote: Sun Jul 31, 2022 6:56 pm

Tom Mazanec wrote: Sun Jul 31, 2022 3:38 pm Gee Xeraphim, only 1.2%? Disappointed but wondering how it could be so small in view of the following statistics.

They're official Russian figures so...

I've seen some polls showing popular support at high levels. They've abandoned trying to become accepted by Europe and are rapidly shifting worldview. New alliances being brokered if you've seen. It'll take time to bear fruit.

Perhaps they're going to weather it better than we, as hardship is what they're accustomed to. And we're going to show some serious issues when our comforts disappear quite soon. How about stats on American's health and obesity levels? That'll be a big drain very quickly.

FullMoon wrote: Sun Jul 31, 2022 7:31 pm

Xeraphim1 wrote: Sun Jul 31, 2022 6:56 pm

Tom Mazanec wrote: Sun Jul 31, 2022 3:38 pm Gee Xeraphim, only 1.2%? Disappointed but wondering how it could be so small in view of the following statistics.

They're official Russian figures so...

I've seen some polls showing popular support at high levels. They've abandoned trying to become accepted by Europe and are rapidly shifting worldview. New alliances being brokered if you've seen. It'll take time to bear fruit.

Perhaps they're going to weather it better than we, as hardship is what they're accustomed to. And we're going to show some serious issues when our comforts disappear quite soon. How about stats on American's health and obesity levels? That'll be a big drain very quickly.

The problem is in trusting what comes out of Russia. Keep in mind that just calling the Ukraine war a war can land you in prison. As to new alliances, who is available? China isn't jumping in to help Russia because, why should it? Besides, it is dependent on exports and isn't going to screw up its economy for Russia. Iran? It's also a near basket case. Who else is there?

Being accustomed to hardship may have been true in Soviet times, but the past 30 years has had people expecting better. Note that that tens of thousands of young professionals have left Russia since February including many of the people most needed for a modern economy. FDI has dried up and that drove most of the industrial improvement of the past few decades.

Now, I could be wrong, but it's looking like Putin's latest adventure has set Russia back by at least 10-15 years and possibly more. Deaths and casualties in Ukraine are estimated to exceed 75,000, though probably 2/3 of that are casualties who will or have recovered. Material losses are massive and will take a decade to make up, if Russia could afford it which it can't. And the total fertility rate is 1.5 with massive negative growth.

I don't see any way in which Russia will not be an also ran with nukes desperately trying to stay relevant.

Xeraphim1 wrote: Sun Jul 31, 2022 7:54 pm Now, I could be wrong, but it's looking like Putin's latest adventure has set Russia back by at least 10-15 years and possibly more. Deaths and casualties in Ukraine are estimated to exceed 75,000, though probably 2/3 of that are casualties who will or have recovered. Material losses are massive and will take a decade to make up, if Russia could afford it which it can't. And the total fertility rate is 1.5 with massive negative growth.

I don't see any way in which Russia will not be an also ran with nukes desperately trying to stay relevant.

Because you are too biased all the way around, and moreso, recency biased. You can't see any way? Umm, they create new trading partners that obviate the USD, effectively winning the operation they put in place and then expanded on.

The USD is losing value to the ruble and yuan even, and "you don't see". The US has major unity problems. The US is a degenerate culture. Someone finally stood up to all of these things, regardless of if they are good or not, the US can't do all that much.

Yeah, you don't see many things clearly.

Cool Breeze wrote: Sun Jul 31, 2022 8:27 pm

Xeraphim1 wrote: Sun Jul 31, 2022 7:54 pm Now, I could be wrong, but it's looking like Putin's latest adventure has set Russia back by at least 10-15 years and possibly more. Deaths and casualties in Ukraine are estimated to exceed 75,000, though probably 2/3 of that are casualties who will or have recovered. Material losses are massive and will take a decade to make up, if Russia could afford it which it can't. And the total fertility rate is 1.5 with massive negative growth.

I don't see any way in which Russia will not be an also ran with nukes desperately trying to stay relevant.

Because you are too biased all the way around, and moreso, recency biased. You can't see any way? Umm, they create new trading partners that obviate the USD, effectively winning the operation they put in place and then expanded on.

The USD is losing value to the ruble and yuan even, and "you don't see". The US has major unity problems. The US is a degenerate culture. Someone finally stood up to all of these things, regardless of if they are good or not, the US can't do all that much.

Yeah, you don't see many things clearly.

What trading partners? What does Russia have to sell other than oil and gas? Those are already selling at a significant discount and aren't going to get much better. Obviate the USD? How is that supposed to work? Magic? I don't see any other way. Winning the Ukrainian invasion? That is looking increasingly unlikely as Russian power wanes while Ukraine is increasingly stocked with Western equipment that vastly outperforms Russian materiel. In the mean time Russian industry is collapsing and FDI would be negative if foreign companies were allowed to remove the value of their holdings. In short, Russia is making making much of anything and can't import a lot of stuff. Did you even bother to look at the results above or just ignore them because it didn't fit your beliefs?

The Russian ruble is completely managed right now and the official value bears no relations to its actual value. Foreign stock and bond holders cannot move income out of the country. Russian exporters are required to convert half their earnings into rubles. Western companies leaving Russia are not allowed to remove the value of their holdings. I haven't been able to find recent black market rates for dollars but in April/May it was running at 120-150 Rubles per dollar. In other worlds, the ruble's value is fictional and will not hold in normal circumstances.

The yuan is similar in that the value is controlled by the CCP. It is not a free floating currency. In terms of other currencies, the dollar is stronger against almost everything since the beginning of the year.

The US does have issues, but compare to the 1960's and it's not even as bad as then despite what some would have you believe. As to "someone finally stood up", I have this image of you being one of the people in the 1930's saying complementary things about Hitler.

Of course I don't know why I bother with you since you won't accept anything that doesn't align with your beliefs and you never bother to defend your prognostications so I suppose it's really a waste of my time.

Growing fears Putin will use nukes as Russia war effort falters, Brit expert claims
New fears of Russian president Vladimir Putin have been aired by a chemical weapons expert who says NATO countries will be keeping a close eye on Russia's response to the faltering Ukraine invasion
ByEwan Gleadow
11:01, 29 JUL 2022
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world- ... s-27607458

China holds live fire Navy drills in Taiwan Strait…
Posted by Kane on July 31, 2022 2:15 am
https://citizenfreepress.com/breaking/c ... an-strait/

Jul 29, 2022 - World
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https://www.axios.com/2022/07/29/china- ... losi-biden

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https://freebeacon.com/national-securit ... her-plane/