Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

FullMoon wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:49 am

thomasglee wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:52 am

Guest wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:46 am

Do you still think the US did it?

Who benefits the most? The USA. So yeah, I bet the USA did it. Plus, back in February, Biden basically said he would do anything necessary to shut down the pipelines.

Who did it is less important than what this event will precipitate. It's a major event for Europe and the war. Europe is already in trouble and now gone is a large amount of energy and heating fuel for the winter. Social instability has been rising sharply and now could get really ugly.
It's also possible China did this. They're global actors now. A preoccupied West benefits their expansionary plans.

That's the fun, and most dangerous, part about this. Due to the location of the incident there will never be any physical evidence to point to a culprit. The harsh environment, the size of the "crime scene", and the need to enact repairs in a timely manner will ensure that should any investigation occur it will be limited. There may be soft intel floating around but what you "know" and what you can prove are often very different animals. At best, if it was a surface drop of some payload, there may be a sat photo of the top of some boat that was there possibly days before.

The danger comes in the form of anyone being able to accuse anyone else of doing the deed to justify their own actions. Add to that, you would think that anyone with the ability to pull off this operation that far under the Baltic Sea is probably going to be a major player, but you can't be sure. Money is the superpower that anyone can have if you are in the right clubs.

Wednesday, September 28, 2022

Western Florida is going to be hit
with a 15-20 foot storm surge. It's
a real catastrophe.

Wednesday, September 28, 2022

thomasglee wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:52 am
Who benefits the most? The USA. So yeah,
I bet the USA did it. Plus, back in
February, Biden basically said he would
do anything necessary to shut down the
pipelines.

Where in hell does this ridiculous claim
come from? Just because you claim,
without any evidence whatsoever, that
the USA benefits the most from sabotage
of Russian pipelines doesn't make it
true . Certainly a vague empty threat
by Biden almost a year ago isn't
evidence of anything.

I can think of many other actors that
benefit more then the USA -- Russia, the
Arabs, the jihadists, China,
environmental activists , and so forth.
Just follow the money.

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Guest wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:46 am

DaKardii wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:08 am

Xeraphim1 wrote: Tue Sep 27, 2022 5:39 pm

There was no need to sabotage either of the pipelines. NS2 never went into operation while NS1 hasn't pumped gas for more than two weeks due to Russian decisions.

There was no need for either Germany or Russia to sabotage them. Germany needs the gas, and Russia needs the leverage and especially the income. Neither can afford the pipeline's destruction.

Given these facts, in my opinion it is more likely than not that a third party was responsible. Although I am still open to the possibility that it actually was Russia who did it, because the conflict in Ukraine has the potential to become a crisis war and according to Generational Dynamics combatants tend to act irrationally during such conflicts.

Do you still think the US did it?

Personally, I do.

But again, I'm still open to the possibility that it was Russia.

FullMoon wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:49 am It's also possible China did this. They're global actors now. A preoccupied West benefits their expansionary plans.

Good point, although I'll reserve my opinion on it for later. After all, we need to take into account the timing.

If China invades Taiwan this fall, you may well be right. But if it doesn't, you're probably wrong.

NoMansLand wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:28 am

FullMoon wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:49 am

thomasglee wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:52 am

Who benefits the most? The USA. So yeah, I bet the USA did it. Plus, back in February, Biden basically said he would do anything necessary to shut down the pipelines.

Who did it is less important than what this event will precipitate. It's a major event for Europe and the war. Europe is already in trouble and now gone is a large amount of energy and heating fuel for the winter. Social instability has been rising sharply and now could get really ugly.
It's also possible China did this. They're global actors now. A preoccupied West benefits their expansionary plans.

That's the fun, and most dangerous, part about this. Due to the location of the incident there will never be any physical evidence to point to a culprit. The harsh environment, the size of the "crime scene", and the need to enact repairs in a timely manner will ensure that should any investigation occur it will be limited. There may be soft intel floating around but what you "know" and what you can prove are often very different animals. At best, if it was a surface drop of some payload, there may be a sat photo of the top of some boat that was there possibly days before.

The danger comes in the form of anyone being able to accuse anyone else of doing the deed to justify their own actions. Add to that, you would think that anyone with the ability to pull off this operation that far under the Baltic Sea is probably going to be a major player, but you can't be sure. Money is the superpower that anyone can have if you are in the right clubs.

America can read the Kremlin's emails and listen in to its phone calls. Also, there are moles galore in Russia now. That's why Putin has been throwing intel chiefs in jail.

And no, I don't think the US did it. I think Putin most likely did because he is flailing around in desperation. Six months ago Russia had the 2nd most powerful army in the world and now it is on par with the Mexicans. Putin is a nasty piece of work and it is all coming apart now. And because the West tolerated this scumbag, we will all have to pay a high price for it.

It wasn't the Swedes or the Balts. It wasn't the Germans; they don't have the backbone to anything except beg.

Outside actors are possibilities, but I think with America's intel abilities, we will find out.

Maybe this is just poor Russian construction?

DaKardii wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:03 pm

FullMoon wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:49 am It's also possible China did this. They're global actors now. A preoccupied West benefits their expansionary plans.

Good point, although I'll reserve my opinion on it for later. After all, we need to take into account the timing.

If China invades Taiwan this fall, you may well be right. But if it doesn't, you're probably wrong.

Can China still invade Taiwan this fall? A cross-Channel invasion is not something that you can just pull off on a weekend. It requires preparing well in advance, preparing that cannot be hidden.

El Cid M wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:55 pm Maybe this is just poor Russian construction?

Not when it happens in multiple places at once. I think it has to be someone with considerable submarine capability.

thomasglee wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:52 am

Guest wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:46 am

DaKardii wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:08 am

There was no need for either Germany or Russia to sabotage them. Germany needs the gas, and Russia needs the leverage and especially the income. Neither can afford the pipeline's destruction.

Given these facts, in my opinion it is more likely than not that a third party was responsible. Although I am still open to the possibility that it actually was Russia who did it, because the conflict in Ukraine has the potential to become a crisis war and according to Generational Dynamics combatants tend to act irrationally during such conflicts.

Do you still think the US did it?

Who benefits the most? The USA. So yeah, I bet the USA did it. Plus, back in February, Biden basically said he would do anything necessary to shut down the pipelines.

Neither Nord Stream line was transmitting gas so Russia wasn't making anything off either. The US is already selling all the gas that it can; there will need to be new terminals and new LNG carriers before exports can increase by much. So no, the US doesn't benefit at all from this while actually blowing up the pipes would create friction with European countries. Biden was talking about sanctions which did prevent NS2 from operating.