Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

game theory - no move is the herds only response, for now..... emptor

Within the past week or two somebody tried to sell me a newsletter. The logic went like this: "The stock market is diverging more with my indicators than it has in 50 years. It will surely go down."

My response was this: If the stock market is at a record extreme, as you are telling me, I only have 2 choices. Either stay completely away from the market because I don't know how extreme it will get (could be your indicators are portending hyperinflation for example), or go short, don't move and risk bankruptcy. When the market drops it will be too late to get short because when it does drop it will probably drop 200 points in about 6 minutes and then where do you get short if you are not already? And after the market drops, any measure you have of oversold will mean nothing as the market will do the opposite of what it did on the way up, which will be to ignore all indications of oversold on the way down.

[aedens]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiDNf8trWn8

On the Island of the Green-Eyed Tribe, blue eyes are taboo. ;-/

H last hit was 400 ms, as we seen today the blue eyes where sidelined as the exchanges went black
for the select tribe.
===========================================================================================================
SEC Short Sale Rule 201 headlines. Carrot and Stick sub routine as the carrot is stuffed up your a** and beaten with the stick.

HFTs Got Data - You Did not.

On the Island of the Green-Eyed Tribe...

Good call H

[aedens]

http://jhaines6.wordpress.com/2014/04/3 ... far-north/

http://www.c3headlines.com/2014/week22/index.html

[gerald]

China is number one --- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJ4K0hHin9s -- from the Onion -- or is this for real? --- It is getting hard to tell, fact from fiction. Having been there,it sounds like fact, but? hmm

[John]

From Al-Jazeera, reporting from China on Tiananmen Square massacre:
Young girl who runs a skateboarding shop says that the events of 25
years ago have no relevance to her generation.

"25 years ago, what the young people cared about was having enough
food and keeping warm. Whereas today, we want to become stylish
and show off our personalities."

China has 10 times as many graduates as it did in 1989. But about a
third of them are unemployed, because the economy isn't employing
enough white collar jobs.

[Higgenbotham]

Good call H

So I saw this first thing this morning.

U.S. and European stocks lower after Eurozone May CPI climbs at the slowest pace in 4-1/2 years; June E-mini S&Ps down -0.13%

European stocks are down -0.16% after a slower-than-expected increase in Eurozone CPI points to sluggish economic growth in the Eurozone.

This wouldn't be of much interest except for 2 things. One is the much anticipated action Draghi will supposedly announce Thursday. The second and more interesting is what Tepper said awhile back. While I don't have it right in front of me, he said something to the effect that the ECB is behind the curve and that it may already be too late to stop deflation in the EU.

This little news snippet could indicate he might be right. So when Draghi announces I'll be watching to see what the big money does. It could be the mother of "sell the news" events.

[Higgenbotham]

May 14 (Reuters) - Billionaire hedge fund manager David Tepper sounded a cautious message on Wednesday, telling a ballroom packed with other managers and investors that he was "nervous" about the stock market but that this was not the time to sell.

Billed as the star attraction at the $2.7 trillion industry's biggest annual event, Tepper discussed economic growth, central bank policies as well as his personal commitment to supporting local soup kitchens and food banks in his adopted home state.

But his take on investing in U.S. markets got the most attention when he said: "I'm not saying go short, just don't be too friggin' long."

Coming from the man who earned $3.5 billion to rank as the hedge fund industry's best paid manager in 2013, this was exactly the kind of practical advice the roughly 1,800 attendees, some of whom jetted to Vegas on private planes, came to hear at the annual SkyBridge Alternatives Conference.

Tepper, who runs $20 billion Appaloosa Management, said he doesn't think U.S. economic growth is as strong as it should be and added that central banks are currently being complacent, noting that Europe's central bank "is behind the curve."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/ ... 1J20140515

May 26 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank must be "particularly watchful" for any negative price spiral in the euro zone, ECB chief Mario Draghi said on Monday, adding that the bank was not resigned to inflation being too low for too long.

The ECB is on guard against deflation and ready to act with conventional and targeted measures, Draghi said, and a broad asset-buying plan remains an option.

To guard against a drop in price expectations, "more pre-emptive action may be warranted", he said in a speech entitled "Monetary policy in a prolonged period of low inflation".

Draghi's comments reinforced suggestions from other ECB policymakers that the bank is ready to act at its June 5 policy meeting to counter low inflation and weak lending in the 18-country euro zone.

Draghi said after the ECB's May meeting that the Governing Council was "comfortable with acting next time" - its June 5 policy meeting - but wanted to see updated economic projections from the bank's staff first. He said he expected inflation, now running at 0.7 percent, to slowly return to the ECB's target of just under 2 percent.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/05/2 ... DO20140526

[aedens]

No way to gauge the tribe response on this game theory.
I considered the window valid and I think they all know this anyways.

Any ways, we did not break this they did.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CL6wPs-0QZ8 Take It as It Comes

Retards give five maniacs for a day tripper kind of week so far.... One does not like to think of officials or leaders as committing evil covert events or to do things to cover up a mess. They operate under the premise called The burden of leadership meaning, the end justifies the means. The few inside the circle know the truth, those outside the circle know a little bit, but if the majority is confused then the objective has been achieved in order to stabilize the insanity of world events. This has been the course of human history from the get go and if you are fortunate to shoot pool with certain spooks, you are privy to the inner circle.

A Game of Sentiment

http://www.salientpartners.com/epsilont ... timent.pdf

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNiie_zmSr8

Some of the lies while all of the signs are deceiving

thread noted: I stick to my pointless view if lucky by the fall of 2015 until systemic failures cratering in and the rot just implodes.

Financial Fools Network. The shows were taped in 1990 to 1992 period when it was on cable. A few points:

1.) This was a few years after the 1987 crash. About 2 out of every 3 guests would say that the market was overpriced and headed for another inevitable crash. This was during a bull market that ran from 1987 to 2000. A great time to be in the market. Everybody fixated on the '87 crash the way people today fixate on the 2009 meltdown.
2.) Market timing was the key to everything. Follow the Fed. Only fools concentrated on stock selection.
3.) The dollar's days as world reserve currency were numbered. The Japanese yen would replace it. This viewpoint peaked about the time the Japanese market did.
4.) Hyperinflation was JUST AROUND THE CORNER. If you didn't buy gold you were an idiot.
5.) Damn Sue Herrera used to be a babe. Today not so much.
6.) At least half of the people on the show were obviously insane. Remember Andrew Lightbody, military commentator and former jet pilot. Jeez....
I guess my point is that the more things change the more they remain the same. Don't get locked into any position. Keep an open mind. ob1

Fig tree
2018 July 27th Tu B’Av, central lunar eclipse, Bull’s-eye Blood Moon, directly in line with Jerusalem.
Time line (Luke 21:32, Psalms 90:10, Dan 9)
1948 + 70 years = 2018
1968 + 50 years = 2018
2011 + 7 years =2018

[Higgenbotham]

Financial Fools Network. The shows were taped in 1990 to 1992 period when it was on cable. A few points:

1.) This was a few years after the 1987 crash. About 2 out of every 3 guests would say that the market was overpriced and headed for another inevitable crash. This was during a bull market that ran from 1987 to 2000. A great time to be in the market. Everybody fixated on the '87 crash the way people today fixate on the 2009 meltdown.
2.) Market timing was the key to everything. Follow the Fed. Only fools concentrated on stock selection.
3.) The dollar's days as world reserve currency were numbered. The Japanese yen would replace it. This viewpoint peaked about the time the Japanese market did.
4.) Hyperinflation was JUST AROUND THE CORNER. If you didn't buy gold you were an idiot.
5.) Damn Sue Herrera used to be a babe. Today not so much.
6.) At least half of the people on the show were obviously insane. Remember Andrew Lightbody, military commentator and former jet pilot. Jeez....
I guess my point is that the more things change the more they remain the same. Don't get locked into any position. Keep an open mind. ob1

I totally disagree with this guy's premise.

It was the Hero Generation he is bashing. Most of them were concerned about what was going on because they were civic minded. The debt was a fraction of GDP. Most could see the problems were not immediate and were fixable. Ross Perot ran during those years to get it fixed so our children and grandchildren could enjoy a good life.

There were a few loons out there as always. But the problems today are immediate and not fixable. In 1992, they were far in the future and fixable. Perot said he wanted to get under the hood and fix the problems. He was polling enough to win the election at one point. Nobody in their right mind would run on that premise today, nor would they poll enough to be a serious candidate. Different times in my opinion.

Bubble mania was beginning then and nobody believed it. Today it is ending and the guy who wrote that is trying to convince himself it's not, probably because his paycheck depends on it. I know a few like that. I was buying stocks back then, by the way.

[John]

Is this graph available with a log scale?