Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

This is where I found that discussion and graph.

Dennis had agreed to present at this conference reluctantly. He has retired from Club of Rome discussions, and has found more cheerful uses for his time. But he seemed happy with the outcome, saying that this is the first time he faced an audience that did not need convincing. Instead, he took the time to add some details that I think are crucially important, among them the fact that his WORLD3 model is only accurate until the peaks are reached. Once the peaks occur (between 2015 and 2020) all bets are off: past that point, the model's predictive ability is not to be relied on because the assumptions on which it relies will no longer be valid. Thus, the author of this particular plot, claiming that peak population will occur in 2030, committed the exact error that Dennis warned us against: of looking too far to the right. Once the initial peaks come and go, we will be in a different world than the one he modeled in 1972—a world in which, I foresee, accurate population statistics will no longer be available. We know that the dynamics of global growth are very different from the dynamics of global die-off, but perhaps that is all that we will ever know, because there won't be anyone left to model or measure the die-off.

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2014/05/r ... -2014.html

[jcsok]

Hig, I believe that the collapse of agriculture will follow the collapse of the industrial society. Through modern mechanization, ag production will fall rapidly with the failure of industry, because of the "throw away" nature of newer machinery. Many farmers are leery of new, electronic machinery, but we have no choice when replacing equipment. A failure of a $100 electronic part will render a $200,000 tractor virtually useless; and therefore crops won't be planted or harvested timely.

Just today, I had a discussion with the owner of one of the largest US implement dealers. He stated that he wished he could market a tractor that was made in the 1960's because they were dependable and easy to repair. He would have a large market for them. But now as machinery has been replaced with the electronics, they are increasingly hard to repair.

When the machines fail......people will starve, and people WILL NOT be able to easily grow gardens as many propose. There won't be any garden seed because of lack of production and transportation.

[Higgenbotham]

The Triangle of Doom has been broken tonight - crude oil futures just touched $106, up $1.60 on the night.

Therefore, what can be imagined is that oil prices are going to push through $105 because the bottom line is that the producers must get paid and must make a profit to continue operations. When price breaks out over $105, the speculators are going to pile on. Then the economy is going to collapse shortly thereafter.

According to economist James Hamilton, ten out of eleven post-World War II recessions have been associated with spikes in oil prices.

http://www.economic-undertow.com/wp-con ... 060114.png

CRUDENOW.png (13.13 KiB) Viewed 9504 times

Chart above was posted a few days ago.

[Higgenbotham]

Oil jumps to near $106 on Iraq violence

Associated Press
June 12, 2014 - 5:35 AM

Oil rose to near $106 per barrel Thursday as an insurgency in Iraq raised the risk of disruption to supplies after OPEC vowed to keep output unchanged.

Benchmark U.S. oil for July delivery was up $1.45 to $105.85 a barrel at 1010 GMT in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Wednesday, the contract added 5 cents to close at $104.40.

Brent crude, a benchmark for international oils, was up $2.08 to $111.44 a barrel on the ICE exchange in London.

The al-Qaida-inspired group that captured two key cities in Iraq earlier this week vowed Thursday to march on to Baghdad.

One of those two cities, Mosul, lies in an area that is a major gateway for Iraqi oil. While the loss of the city has no immediate effect on oil exports, now at over 3 million barrels a day, it adds to concerns over security and the country's plans to expand oil production.

On Wednesday, OPEC countries agreed to keep their output target unchanged at 30 million barrels a day. OPEC Secretary General Abdullah Al-Badry said the oil market is "very stable."

The price of oil rose after the decision by the oil cartel. Traders interpreted the decision as recognition within OPEC that most members would not be able to substantially increase output in the short-term even if the world's demand for crude increases. The global economy is expected to expand 2.8 percent this year according to World Bank, still faster than last year's 2.4 percent.

The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventories report showed a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. stockpiles of crude oil, down 2.6 million barrels in the week ending June 6 from the previous week. It was expected to show a 1.2 million barrel fall, according to a survey of analysts by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

In other energy futures trading on Nymex:

— Wholesale gasoline rose 5.5 cents to $3.056 a gallon.

— Natural gas rose 4.1 cents to $4.549 per 1,000 cubic feet.

— Heating oil added 5.9 cents to $2.963 a gallon.

[Higgenbotham]

Was al Qaeda in Iraq in 2002? No.
Was al Qaeda in Iraq in 2006? Yes.
Why? Foreign invaders had occupied the country and installed a puppet government.

I repeat that we are very, very lucky not to have suffered a debacle in Mesopotamia. Here is the list of famous generals I can think of who came to grief after invading Mesopotamia from the west or south: Cyrus the Younger, Alexander, Crassus, Trajan, Valerian, Julian, Hussein, Charles Townshend. There's probably lots more. Those who superficially conquered (Alexander, Trajan) nonetheless died there, and their conquests evaporated.

Here is the one I can think of who succeeded: Umar.

Good advice from Gen. Douglas MacArthur: "Never get involved in a land war in Asia."

I had wondered if anyone in the forum had made note of these basic facts. Turns out JR did on May 17, 2010.

[aedens]

We just noted as many the grave yard of empires h.

[aedens]

POV around the blue marble

Washington is an occupied territory, and its trillion dollar defense work to defend others. As long as there is no free media, the foreign powers will keep running Washington, as the sheeple sleep. Saudi /Qatari money is flowing to feed that fire to exterminate Christianity in the ME! Somehow, our Muslim president is happy with that scheme, as well as his predecessor "Christian Bush"! Forget about the stupid 300 million sheeple, who got no way of knowing this because of our disinformation and lies from the mainstream press.

They are 90 miles from bagdad. 4500 of our kids dead for assholes.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-1 ... dad?page=2
==============================================================================================
"Right now we've spent 17 years in this war and the American People STILL think that we're fighting a bunch of long-haired, deranged, goat-eating madmen".
"Sir, please! Sir? Sir? Do you really think that Al Quaeda straps a bomb to their waist and blows people up because this woman
(points to his left) is wearing a miniskirt"? *he laughs in his face*
===============================================================================================
The largest of these developments is the West Qurna 2 field which began operation at 120kbd in March 2014 and is expected to ramp up towards 1mbd by 2030. [ZH: readers may be surprised to learn that the largest stakeholder of West Qurna II, with a 75% ownership, is none other than Lukoil, i.e. Putin)

color of the cats is meaning less if it catches mice

[aedens]

$115 level has acted as a consistent resistance level.

The new normal I read a few month back was $115.00
I had no comment.
I parked my 18 mpg and paid cash
for a 25 mph plus average vehicle.

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=USO

[aedens]

Cosmic humor is next full moon on Friday the 13th won't occur until August 2049
and three x class solar events. Some may suggest the bulls eye lunar event ahead
will be frosting on the cake in the MENA region.

Time line (Daniel 9)
June 2011 + (2520 Days + 30 Days + 45 Days) = July 2018

2018 July 27th Tu B’Av, central lunar eclipse, “Bull’s-eye Blood Moon”, directly in line with Jerusalem.

Time line (Luke 21:32, Psalms 90:10, Dan 9)

1948 + 70 years = 2018
1968 + 50 years = 2018
2011 + 7 years =2018

It means nothing and every thing.

[aedens]

water wheat weather http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-1 ... nt-1-chart

It seems like 'the church age' at this point has passed, and God has gone into judgment mode. These two prophets then are prophets of judgment and doom. They are on the earth to let people know what's coming. No one is going to stop them. God says these two are going to get their time to get the message out, because they are the only two that God has appointed to do such a thing. So they will get their full 3½ years of warning and preaching to the world.

Now let's try to pick up the pace a little bit and get into Revelation 11:6 and some new material.

Revelation 11:6 These [Two Witnesses] have power to shut heaven, so that no rain falls in the days of their prophecy; and they have power over waters to turn them to blood, and to strike the earth with all plagues, as often as they desire.

Impossible to consider when it kicks in and most will never see it coming we are told.

It means nothing and every thing. May this bitter cup pass us.

h less than 5 percent short as noted on ratio comment.