Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

aedens wrote:h less than 5 percent short as noted on ratio comment.

The sequence in the above charts would be a 34 month (fibonacci) separation with the key dates October 10, 2008 (first leg down of the crash) which is not shown, August 9, 2011 (end of the downgrade panic), and June 9, 2014. I moved to a 10% short as noted June 9.

The useful life of non solutions is at completion in my opinion and reality took over this week in Iraq.

JR wrote:Was al Qaeda in Iraq in 2002? No.
Was al Qaeda in Iraq in 2006? Yes.
Why? Foreign invaders had occupied the country and installed a puppet government.

I repeat that we are very, very lucky not to have suffered a debacle in Mesopotamia. Here is the list of famous generals I can think of who came to grief after invading Mesopotamia from the west or south: Cyrus the Younger, Alexander, Crassus, Trajan, Valerian, Julian, Hussein, Charles Townshend. There's probably lots more. Those who superficially conquered (Alexander, Trajan) nonetheless died there, and their conquests evaporated.

Here is the one I can think of who succeeded: Umar.

Good advice from Gen. Douglas MacArthur: "Never get involved in a land war in Asia."

"Very, very lucky" has given way to "reality sucks" and the debacle JR referred to has begun; the can kickers will be back at it next week but counterfeit money has never produced hard goods, though it can deliver hard goods from puppets for a little while.

This is the above diagram compressed fourfold horizontally for better comparison with the black swan image above it.
There was also one into the May 2013 high almost like this one but it went a few days longer. At that time Sornette had a warning and I read he has one on now.

The End Is Nigh
1. Sornette bubble end flagging and potential ending diagonal overthrow price pattern on SP500

https://solarcycles.files.wordpress.com ... 04-511.png

http://solarcycles.net/2014/06/11/the-end-is-nigh/

I'm noticing Sornette's crash signal is several times more powerful than it was at the end of the May 2013 blowout.

Higgenbotham wrote:http://www.er.ethz.ch/fco/index

21 May 2013
S&P 500 in a bubble. Analysis by the FCO indicates that the US stock market index S&P 500 is growing at an unsustainable rate (8.3% gain in 4 weeks) and will soon correct.

This is the May 2013 black swan formation compressed fourfold, same as the current diagram above. I can only post 3 images to 1 post; hence, the new post for this diagram connected to the above post.

http://www.peaktheories.com/is-a-super- ... -vix-.html

When John Maynard Keynes was seven years old (1890) his father authored a volume entitled the Scope and Method of Political Economy. The Keynesian method of double entendre was developed by the elder Keynes to a fine art. An economist who could write a 370 page book studded with marxist-like metaphors without once mentioning the name of Marx must be credited at being a master of skillful literary concealment. J.N. Keynes’ talent of assuming a respectable posture within an academic sanctuary while chipping away at the edifice of private enterprise, was passed on to his son. John Neville Keynes managed to smuggle in the marxist theme that, “Schemes of socialism, moreover, as distinguished from pure communism, do not necessarily involve the entire abolition of free exchange.”

J.N. Keynes illustrated through a most intricate web of subtle suggestions that the concept of private enterprise can be switched around to prove it either as desirable or a menace according to one’s motives. He also made allusions to government regulations and the possible need for a world body to control the economic life of man thus predating his son John Maynard by 54 years on the same proposition. J.N. Keynes had two fellow leftists to aid him in his book. One was Henry Sidgwick and the other was Alfred Marshall, both being socialists and mentors of young John Maynard Keynes. The elder Keynes book was required reading among Fabian socialists and was listed for sale in the official organ of the American Fabian Society under the listing, “Recommended books on Socialism and Social Reform.” Thus John Maynard Keynes was nurtured on socialism and atheism practically from his mother’s milk.

http://media.routledgeweb.com/pdf/97804 ... 562874.pdf

http://www.intellectualhistory.net/helm ... -sismondi/ sismondi is what marx read

The question is observed as what does Sismondi's theory that the home market shrinks with the development of capitalism amount to?
I seen this real time and so have you reading this today. Many never read it until 1963 on these shores.

Higgenbotham wrote:Likewise, not only will the infrastructure of roads, bridges and electrical systems not be maintained or replaced, vandals will rip up whatever they can salvage and cart it away - guard rails, manhole covers, or what have you, and smash up the rest with pick axes and sledgehammers, or destroy what they can't smash up with homemade bombs.

In the Indianapolis suburbs, officers said they needed a mine-resistant vehicle to protect against a possible attack by veterans returning from war.

“You have a lot of people who are coming out of the military that have the ability and knowledge to build I.E.D.’s and to defeat law enforcement techniques,” Sgt. Dan Downing of the Morgan County Sheriff’s Department told the local Fox affiliate, referring to improvised explosive devices, or homemade bombs. Sergeant Downing did not return a message seeking comment.

Some of the statements I make appear outlandish - this one is from June 8 - and I am posting backup here and there whenever I run across it. The quote below it is from an article that appeared in zero hedge the next day.

FUD only works with some. So yes, half believe it in the States. The silent war was already won
since the other cheerful have already ignored it. http://johntaylorgatto.com/historytour/history2.htm
fib pigeon Friday the 27th. I will decide July around the 25 th into the 28th since a mooring should be seen IMO

To be clear I am not going in the weeds with the bears and will hold the ratio. I tend to agree with your current data set also.

Dow 30 Component Breakdown

Peak ratio of each individual Dow 30 component to the Dow 30 average
(followed in parenthesis by the price peak)

American Express March 2014 (June 2014)
Boeing January 2014 (January 2014)
Caterpillar February 2012 (February 2012)
Cisco August 2013 (August 2013)
Chevron October 2012 (June 2014)
Dupont May 2014 (June 2014)
Disney March 2014 (June 2014)
General Electric November 2013 (December 2013)
Goldman Sachs February 2013 (January 2014)
Home Depot July 2013 (March 2014)
IBM October 2011 (March 2013)
Intel May 2012 (June 2014)
Johnson & Johnson June 2014 (June 2014)
JP Morgan March 2014 (March 2014)
Coca-Cola August 2012 (May 2013)
McDonald's December 2011 (May 2014)
MMM June 2014 (June 2014)
Merck May 2014 (May 2014)
Microsoft April 2014 (June 2014)
Nike December 2013 (March 2014)
Pfizer April 2013 (March 2014)
Procter & Gamble April 2013 (November 2013)
AT&T August 2012 (April 2013)
Travelers June 2014 (June 2014)
United Health March 2014 (April 2014)
United Technologies April 2014 (June 2014)
Visa January 2014 (January 2014)
Verizon April 2013 (April 2013)
Wal-Mart October 2012 (December 2014)
Exxon Mobil October 2012 (June 2014)

18 Dow 30 stocks are up on the year.

FedEx, Caterpillar, and P&G might be a combination of 3 stocks that are representative of the US and global economy, while leading just a bit, or giving indications of weakness. It's hard to come up with stocks that are representative or lead. I think FedEx is one, but it has benefited from the growth of online shopping. Some say GE is one to look at but it peaked with the stock market in 2007.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2268043 ... ex-q4-2014

Overview
FedEx Corporation (FDX) is slated to report 4Q 2014 earnings before the bell on Wednesday, June 18th. The earnings release is expected at approximately 7:30 a.m. EST with an 8:30 a.m. earnings conference call webcast available at FedEx Investor Relations. Results from FedEx are widely seen as a proxy for economic growth and tend to heavily influence the broader market gauges, including the equity index futures.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-1 ... d-systemic

Got to admit the Yen seen this coming to suffer the impact crater we seen on cluster shocks.