Generational theory, international history and current events
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This option is very much on the table.Note that there is currently no Option 3 whereby Putin is thrown out, and some "white knight" takes control of Russia and ends this.
Agreed as well. I would add a variant where the search for a white knight is preceded by the assassination of Putin.
How do you assess the Pacific front and the European action's effect on the Pacific side? Are they thinking twice after seeing strength or waiting for our strength to be diminished sufficiently? Thanks for the update and please try more frequently if you get the chance.Navigator wrote: Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:50 pm[Note - I was away for a while on a family vacation. I am trying to spend as much time with family as I can right now, so that has been my priority]John wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 3:58 pm Monday, October 10, 2022
Last week, Vladimir Putin appointed a
new top army general to command all the
Russian forces in Ukraine. The new
general had previously bin in charge of
Russia's forces in Syria.
It feels like the Russian invasion of
Ukraine has taken a new escalatory turn
in the last two days, Thanks to the
bombing of the Kerch Strait bridge ,
and Russia's Retaliatory response ,
which has been massive missile and
artillery attacks On civilians, women
and children in multiple cities across
Ukraine , without mercy.
I believe we should now expect to see a
repeat of the tactics used by the
Russians in Syria , including barrel
bombs , chlorine gas , and sarin gas
. Bees are the same ethnic cleansing and
population clearing methods that Putin
used in Chechnya and Syria , and I don't
doubt that he would use them again if
threatened with loss in ukraine.
At this point the Russian Army is beyond neutered. Months ago I posted that they needed to disengage and reorganize, as well as conduct a national mobilization to fill out their infantry ranks.
What we have witnessed is military incompetence (from the Russians) on a scale so vast, it beggars the imagination.
Obviously, this rot has been going on for some time. Putin, who has used the FSB (formerly KGB) as his power base, most likely wanted the former Red Army eviscerated early on in his reign, so that they would not be a threat. So competent mid/senior level leaders were sidelined, eliminated, or otherwise pushed out.
I posted before that the Russian Army, after the initial debacles, needed to disengage and retrain/refresh (especially infantry strength) with a national mobilization. The Russians could have dug in and rotated units out of the line to do this, IF there were competent leaders to handle the retraining and incorporation of mobilized reserves into units. But that's not what they did.
I could not believe the incompetence involved in their latest mobilization. They needed to have the borders closed first. Hundreds of thousands went to Kazakhstan or Georgia or even Finland. Then they don't even appear to have a decent registration system, so they don't even know who to look for when they don't show up.
In the meantime, many of their front line units appear to be at the end of their rope after months on the line, and are caving in if put under serious pressure.
To recover conventionally, they do need to disengage, replace incompetent leaders, and rebuild.
The Russian Army has historically always been able to do this. Putin seems to be preventing this, and is unwilling (probably more likely unable due to internal political ramifications) of doing so.
This could go, IMHO, one of two ways.
Option 1 is that a group of people who want to do what I have been talking about above get together and take out Putin. Note that these people will go for the complete national mobilization I have mentioned in the past. This is basically the enslavement of Russians to do everything possible to correct Russian reverses on the battlefield. And if they can do so and take out Ukraine, that will not be the end of it, they would keep going.
Option 2 is that Putin decides that, having failed conventionally, he goes the nuclear route. Using Chemical weapons and other terror weapons will not work in Ukraine. The Battle of Britain, and the bombing campaigns against Germany and Japan in WW2 prove this. The Ukrainians are not going to cave.
Unless, possibly, Putin sets off smaller nukes in mid sized Ukrainian cities. My guess would be Ivano-Frankivsk is a prime target. Big enough city, but no serious historical significance (not along the lines of Kiev, Odessa, or Lvov anyway). NATO says it would then intervene militarily. The US might, but I doubt NATO. Because NO ONE wants to see this escalate. NATO are not going to potentially sacrifice London or Paris or Berlin (or New York) for Ivano-Frankivsk. I bet almost no-one on the board has even heard of this place.
This option becomes more and more likely as Russia suffers more and more reverses on the battlefield. If the Ukrainians start to move into Crimea proper, this could well happen.
Note that there is currently no Option 3 whereby Putin is thrown out, and some "white knight" takes control of Russia and ends this.
I think that the Chinese would like to fully assess what happened in Ukraine and why, and then make adjustments to their tactics and strategy.FullMoon wrote: Sat Oct 15, 2022 2:28 pm
How do you assess the Pacific front and the European action's effect on the Pacific side? Are they thinking twice after seeing strength or waiting for our strength to be diminished sufficiently? Thanks for the update and please try more frequently if you get the chance.
Just because we want something to happen doesn't mean that it will.
The same could be said of Ukraine. They had no functioning democracy until lately either, yet their culture changed.Navigator wrote: Sat Oct 15, 2022 3:30 pmJust because we want something to happen doesn't mean that it will.
For option 3 to happen, there has to be a popular uprising followed by the election/ascension of a peaceful and democratic leader (or leadership). This would be similar to the US revolution.
Unfortunately, the VAST majority of revolutions do not follow the US path. Instead the follow the path of the French revolution. Uprising followed by anarchy followed by a dictator taking over (usually from the military).
The Russians, unlike the revolutionary era Americans, have no real history of functioning democracy. Instead they have centuries of czars and dictators, Putin just being the latest one. So even if there is a popular uprising, its just going to end up with some other figure from a base of power taking over.
Who said anything about a democratic uprising? I'm talking about someone shooting Putin in the head an ending the war and sanctions. Nothing more than that.Navigator wrote: Sat Oct 15, 2022 3:30 pmJust because we want something to happen doesn't mean that it will.
For option 3 to happen, there has to be a popular uprising followed by the election/ascension of a peaceful and democratic leader (or leadership). This would be similar to the US revolution.
Unfortunately, the VAST majority of revolutions do not follow the US path. Instead the follow the path of the French revolution. Uprising followed by anarchy followed by a dictator taking over (usually from the military).
The Russians, unlike the revolutionary era Americans, have no real history of functioning democracy. Instead they have centuries of czars and dictators, Putin just being the latest one. So even if there is a popular uprising, its just going to end up with some other figure from a base of power taking over.
If someone out of the blue is willing to sacrifice themselves to kill Putin, only someone from Putin's entourage is going to take over. Putin has been in charge for 20 years. The only people with any semblance of power were picked by him. None of them are "good guys".
First on Ukraine. Modern Ukraine is really half Polish and half Ukrainian/Russian. The half that "revolted" were the Polish side (Lvov) against the Russian backed wanna-be dictator. The Poles have a democratic tradition, though a somewhat weak one.Bob Butler wrote: Sat Oct 15, 2022 6:16 pm The same could be said of Ukraine. They had no functioning democracy until lately either, yet their culture changed.
While Napoleon was an autocratic dictator who was lacking in how he spread enlightenment values, first Germany then the soviet client states eventually switched more to the enlightenment pattern. Western culture is drifting east. Autocrats (Napoleon, Bismarck, Hitler, Stalin, Putin) believe invasion is cost effective, run into a defensive alliance of potent industrial powers, get defeated, and the cultural line between east and west travels a bit further east. Losing hurts. The basic theory is that if you can't beat em, join em.
I am not sure if what is left of Asian autocratic power will end up being able to confront the newly expanded and united NATO. I would not be surprised if Putin were followed by another dictator, but his options will be limited. The crisis end ‘never again’ phase is still pending. I suspect the theoretical Putin successor will be forced to abandon the by then pitiful remnants of the Russian military to get rid of the sanctions.
But Putin is still searching for a way to retain power and push the line west. He is seemingly failing, still trying, and it is far too early to let one’s guard down, but variations of option 3 are open in the historical longer term.
Too many folks here are forgetting the 'never again' phase of the crisis in S&H theory. Steps are taken to make sure the crisis problems do not happen again. The next Trump will have more problems getting elected and starting insurrection. The world medical community will have a better access to the next Covid. Racism will be less tolerated, as will using government to enforce individual choice. The conservative, stay the same, don't solve the problem faction loses, and the 'never again' phase makes sure the solutions are part of the new culture.
No. The oligarchs are buckling under all of this, and they see Russia sliding backwards into dire poverty and isolation. They don't want to be part of that. They are looking for a way out. They want the war to end. The Russian army wants the war to end.Navigator wrote: Sat Oct 15, 2022 10:34 pmIf someone out of the blue is willing to sacrifice themselves to kill Putin, only someone from Putin's entourage is going to take over. Putin has been in charge for 20 years. The only people with any semblance of power were picked by him. None of them are "good guys".
If someone from his stable of cronies assassinates him, it will only be with a mandate to do better in the Ukraine war.
Killing Putin isn't going to fix everything. In fact, it will fix very little.