Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

These are the S&P 500 earnings going back a few years. First column is the price of the index and second column is the as reported quarterly earnings.

The 2007 peak in the index was 1576 at a peak quarterly earnings of $21.88.
The 2014 peak in the index was 1963 at a peak quarterly earnings of $26.48 so far.

03/31/2014 (Prelim.) 1872.34 $24.87

ACTUAL
12/31/2013 1848.36 $26.48
09/30/2013 1681.55 $24.63
06/30/2013 1606.28 $24.87
03/31/2013 1569.19 $24.22
12/31/2012 1426.19 $20.65
09/30/2012 1440.67 $21.21
06/30/2012 1362.16 $21.62
03/31/2012 1408.47 $23.03
12/31/2011 1257.60 $20.64
09/30/2011 1131.42 $22.63
06/30/2011 1320.64 $22.24
03/30/2011 1325.83 $21.44
12/31/2010 1257.64 $20.67
09/30/2010 1141.20 $19.52
06/30/2010 1030.71 $19.68
03/31/2010 1169.43 $17.48
12/31/2009 1115.10 $15.18
09/30/2009 1057.08 $14.76
06/30/2009 919.32 $13.51
03/31/2009 797.87 $7.52
12/31/2008 903.25 -$23.25
09/30/2008 1166.36 $9.73
06/30/2008 1280.00 $12.86
03/31/2008 1322.70 $15.54
12/31/2007 1468.36 $7.82
09/30/2007 1526.75 $15.15
06/30/2007 1503.35 $21.88 (Previous Peak)
03/31/2007 1420.86 $21.33

http://www.spindices.com/documents/addi ... s-est.xlsx

A web site reader sent me an e-mail message referring me
to this article. Excerpts follow:

The Generational Short Part 2: Who Will Boomers Sell Their Stocks To?

The implicit conclusion: the Baby Boomers won't have anyone to sell
their stocks, real estate and bonds to. Correspondent Eric
A. demolished the fantasy that Gen X will have the income and assets
to buy the Boomers' stocks held in IRAs, local government and union
pension funds and 401K accounts in Generation X: An Inconvenient Era
(May 23, 2013).

The idea that Gen-Y will have the wealth (not to mention the desire)
to buy the Boomers' stock market portfolios at nosebleed valuations
poses a peculiar conundrum: the only way Gen-Y will have the wealth to
buy Baby Boomers' assets is if the Boomers sell their assets and pass
the wealth along to Gen-Y.

So if both Gen-X and Gen-Y are out as buyers, who's left to buy the
tens of trillions of dollars of Boomer assets at bubblicious prices?
Given that other nations face the same demographic dilemma, the answer
appears to be: no one. ...



If this is the New Normal, then what that means is a bubble and crash
every 7+ years is now the expected cycle. ...

Doesn't it boil down to this? If we can't come up with a viable cohort
who can afford (and is willing to place that generational bet) to buy
Baby Boomer assets at current bubble-level prices, then it follows
that as the first Boomers start selling their assets, prices will fall
as there is nobody left to buy them, at least at these valuations.

Those who see the current era as an aberration have one logical
action: sell now and get out while the gettings good.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-2 ... eir-stocks

John that article was written by Charles Hugh Smith on the site Of Two Minds. In it he shows the chart as a broadening pattern, which is very bearish. As far as the earnings in the prior post? Don't forget earnings have gone to zero in the interval and I would examine the multi-trillions in bonds issued to do nothing more than buy stock by various corporations. That debt will need to be rolled at some point, maybe when financing isn't so easy. The junk bond industry is ridiculous at this time. The best read, week to week, if you want to see the bear case is Doug Noland of Prudent Bear Fund. I have been reading Doug for 10 years. He had the mortgage bubble nailed in 2001. If you do a search on Doug Noland, you will find an archive at safehaven or safewealth that has everything he ever put out. His writing of October 19, 2001 is a masterpiece, a view of the future on FNMA. I suspect the Federal Reserve is going to find itself in crisis before this one is done.

mannfm11 wrote: The best read, week to week, if you want to see the bear case is Doug Noland of Prudent Bear Fund. [...] I suspect the Federal Reserve is going to find itself in crisis before this one is done.

Doug is very good. I also like Hussman. Yes, I think the Fed has painted themselves into a corner with no nice exit.

Back in April of 2013 there were two physical attacks on the grid. The first targeted PG&E’s Metcalf power substation in San Jose, the second was at TVA Watts Bar Nuclear Plant in Spring City, Tennessee. In the first instance PG&E lost functionality on 17 transformers, recovering operations in less than 4 weeks.

Four weeks is actually remarkably quick...critical components such as transformers can take 3 months to 2 years to be manufactured and shipped, depending on the size and requirements.

http://www.powergridresilience.com/

Fact: Ten months ago, unknown attackers attempted to blow up a San Jose transformer substation in a military style raid.

No one has been apprehended. The FBI and local police call it vandalism. As if Billy Bob and Bubba - after a few beers - get their hands on AK-47s and surgically knock out 17 transformers and 16 circuit breakers *after* cutting underground fiber optic cables and outsmarting security cameras and motion sensors.

These terrorists are still out there.

Less than a week later - in a shockingly similar attack in Tennessee - a suspect on a boat fired shots at a nuclear power plant, then engaged police. A trespasser? Someone armed from the water willing to engage in a shootout with law enforcement is *certainly* not Bubba with a few beers in him.

http://nation.foxnews.com/2014/02/24/ou ... id-threats

These links and others point out one scenario for the second leg of the collapse into the dark age after the financial collapse occurs. The second link actually uses the phrase "thrown back into the Dark Ages".

[[As Higgie says, the center can't hold when the periphery collapses]]


Dubai, Abu Dhabi stock markets plunge: Where are the bulls?

DFM Index plunges below 4,000; ADX slips 3.6% as shares see massive
correction prior to Ramadan

By Vicky Kapur

Published Tuesday, June 24, 2014

UAE stock markets are witnessing price-corrections and perhaps the
effect of upcoming holy month of Ramadan when trading levels
traditionally decline.

On June 24, the benchmark Dubai Financial Market (DFM) index fell
below the psychological 4,000-mark in intra-day trade, with the index
down by 8.25 per cent to 3,940 points at around 1.40pm this afternoon.

Abu Dhabi Exchange (ADX) too fell by about 3.9 per cent by around the
same time, with the index declining by about 185 points to 4,525
points in intra-day trade this afternoon.

Shares on Dubai’s stock market have plunged by almost 27 per cent in
seven weeks since hitting a multi-year peak on May 6, when the index
reached an intra-day high of 5,389.80. However, since then, the
benchmark index has slid, with analysts fearing an end to the bourse’s
biggest bull market since 2005.

On the other hand, shares on ADX are down more than 13.5 per cent in
less than a month, from a high of 5,255.35 on May 29 to 4,525 in
today’s intra-day trade.

Both DFM and ADX indices are at multi-month lows, with DFM index
falling below 4,000 points for the first time since March. Meanwhile,
the ADX last saw these levels (below 4,550) in January this year.

Shares on DFM rallied almost 350 per cent in a little over three years
after hitting a multi-year-low of 1,360 on March 2, 2011. The
emirate’s economic recovery, aided by a booming trade, tourism and
real estate sectors, boosted share trade.

After more than three years of solid gains, the market was indeed
looking at some sort of correction, and the DFM General Index declined
almost 7 per cent, or 360 points, to 3,940 at about 13.40 Tuesday
afternoon, after falling from a high on May 6.

The drop was led by several real estate and financial services stocks
that hit the circuit-breaker on the downside, sliding by 10 per cent,
including Deyaar Development, Gulf General Investments Company
(GGICO), Dubai Islamic Insurance and Reinsurance (Aman), Dubai
Investments, National Cement Company, and Islamic Arab Insurance
Co. (Salama).

In addition, Gulf Finance House, Drake & Scull International, Union
Properties, and the bourse’s own listing DFM were down 9.9 per cent
each around that time.

On the ADX too, several stocks were down 10 per cent, including
property developer Aldar and oil & gas major Dana Gas. Additionally,
Methaq Takaful Insurance, Abu Dhabi Ship Building and Gulf Cement were
down about 9.9 per cent.

On the DFM, trading topper Arabtec Holding, which tumbled 9.9 per cent
yesterday, was again down 9.8 per cent today and was last trading at
Dh3.120. Arabtec has been the primary mover of the market in the past
few days.

The stock is down 53 per cent since the beginning of this month (June)
amidst reports of layoffs and the fact that its major shareholder, Abu
Dhabi-based Aabar Holdings, has liquidated part of its stake in the
Dubai-based construction firm.

Hasan Ismaik, the CEO of Arabtec resigned last week after volatility
in the company’s share prices. Ismaik became the first Jordanian
billionaire to join the Forbes’ billionaire league after the
businessman increased his stake in the publicly-traded Arabtec.

Emaar Properties, the stock with the biggest weighting on Dubai’s
index, fell 8.5 per cent to 8.010 after falling almost 5 per cent
yesterday.

http://www.emirates247.com/markets/stoc ... 4-1.554138

It is unclear for now what the catalyst for the $1.70 spike in oil prices is but WTI just touched $107.50 t

I think the new normal wti will be $115.00, just my opine

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=3m&s=VX ... c=xiv&ql=1

Commodity prices are as follows (at time of submission):
•Gold: $1,319.00/ounce, up by $0.60/ounce
•Silver: $20.995/ounce, up by $0.079/ounce
•Oil: $106.38/barrel, up by $0.21/barrel
•RBOB Gas: $3.1261/gallon, up by $0.0185/gallon
•Natural Gas: $4.502/MMbtu, up by $0.056/MMbtu
•Copper: $3.15/pound, up by $0.0005/pound
•Platinum: $1,471.60/ounce, up by $15.00/ounce

http://finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx?v=14

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f ... cmaterials

ncq look like its getting bid - soon it will lift off imo ---- 16-Jun-14 H.C. Wainwright --- Initiated --- Buy

I have it at sell at $6.00 in a few years maybe IMO. I posted a copper usage chart way back into 2020 usages projected by the specialty chemical company's. It will surprise you and we have noted the repo issues as others since the fall of 2012. We noted this effect also when LME needed the four percent from mf global for control. As noted way back then, some one needed it and crushed MFGlobal for it.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1907141 ... lti-bagger

in my comm watch list

NCQ 04:01pm EST 1.13 +13.01% 1.00 1.17 460,781 117,581 60.6M Sparkline Chart Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board

ITB 04:00pm EST 24.33 +0.75% 24.13 24.71 5,250,449 3,823,400 - Sparkline Chart Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board

XHB 04:00pm EST 32.21 0.00% 32.06 32.67 6,246,642 5,026,960 - Sparkline Chart Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board

PXN 05:00pm EST 7.65 0.00% - - 0 29,756 - Sparkline Chart Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board

IAK 04:00pm EST 48.0799 -0.50% 48.051 48.46 7,418 20,455 - Sparkline Chart Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board

RTM 04:00pm EST 84.43 -0.69% 84.43 85.13 1,775 11,631 - Sparkline Chart Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board

IXG 04:00pm EST 57.50 -0.32% 57.28 57.69 30,082 39,753 - Sparkline Chart Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board

CUT 04:00pm EST 25.25 -0.90% 25.24 25.51 259,959 49,353 - Sparkline Chart Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board

SEA 04:00pm EST 22.58 -0.96% 22.56 22.90 28,244 40,534 - Sparkline Chart Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board

RGI 04:00pm EST 86.16 -1.09% 86.16 87.22 7,434 10,158 - Sparkline Chart Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board

FIW 04:00pm EST 34.49 -1.20% 34.49 35.06 32,052 25,603 - Sparkline Chart Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board

COPX 04:00pm EST 10.13 -0.94% 10.08 10.2074 23,816 33,095 - Sparkline Chart Chart, News, Stats, Options, Board

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-2 ... s-reignite

http://www.commodities-now.com/news/pow ... s-oil.html i do not think this is a good idea

http://powersource.post-gazette.com/pow ... 1406240243

http://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/ ... ofile--PXD

Disastrous GDP fall, but stocks are up.

Bad news is still good news.

John wrote:Disastrous GDP fall, but stocks are up.

Bad news is still good news.

This is great:
""If GDP were truly so weak, we would not expect aggregate hours worked to climb 3.7% annualized through May, jobless claims to remain near cycle lows, consumer confidence to hit a cycle high, industrial production to climb 5.0% at an annual rate over the first five months of the year, core capital goods orders to be up 5.8%, ISM to be above 55, and vehicle sales to hit their strongest annualized selling pace for the year," said Renaissance Macro's Neil Dutta. "GDP is the outlier in these data points. I will roll my eyes and move on. Most of the data we just mentioned is consistent with underlying growth over 3.0%."

So basically just like the past_ take out all the things that went down and look bad and things are looking great!


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/precisely ... 12713.html