Financial topics

[aedens]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-2 ... ping-hotel

[aedens]

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2014/06/l ... pdate.html

we been over it h - carl is very sharp

you had jan 14th note on my early view of it developing then. early is wrong but we noted it

the view then was it was seen and we discussed affirmation bias, the tendency to think one has conclusively proven the merits of a decision by listing the reasons it's right, while ignoring the reasons it might not be. my notes indicate first week of July some selling pressure should show some into the end.

contextual thought then : As we warned the left indicates its only actual attribute is consuming fixed capital as we monitor noske moments.
Neither has a compelling view I consider at all. I did note the maintenance of capital needs to be foremost for some time
for water, wheat and weather. Indeed H I would cast a wary eye for this upcoming window long ago we forwarded and the
mindset of social pariahs we have observed very early I regard. T has been thoughtful for the charred landscape narrative of be careful....
I feel it more than I see it now FTIW....

we noted already vix and volume continue to warn on spread

Dubai which crashed another 8% the 24th as leveraged traders are liquidating positions was noted -- global ponzi begins to unwind.

hot money is moving so friday positions will - may close up and we can merit who bought protection anyways... vxx is gaining audience

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VUJHXZ94VM

no accidents in politics ---- http://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/a ... lddispatch

Running From A Lion... Into A Bear... Bitten By A Snake. Amos listened and it was written.

Dietrich Bonhoeffer said, “Silence in the face of evil is itself evil.” Think what you will.

[Higgenbotham]

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2014/06/l ... pdate.html

we been over it h - carl is very sharp

you had jan 14th note on my early view of it developing then. early is wrong but we noted it

His work on that was very insightful for me also. He shows that point 23 occurred near the turn of the year and while point 23 would normally be the high, point 27, which is occurring now, can sometimes be the high. That seems to fit in with the various anomalies I have noticed. Certainly this bubble was pushed to the maximum extent possible and he gives a framework for showing that. He also mentions that even though he believes it is over, he will wait for confirmation. A really fantastic analysis by Carl.

[aedens]

That is my opine from the early view we discussed h

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KdXjFDKVZA

http://winteractionables.com/?p=12972#more-12972

broken is the new fixed so..

All we did was move the skew curve that already existed.
VIX tweaks are simply mathematical.

[gerald]

What is wrong with this picture?

Iceland--- Bankers and politicians ( parliament ) work together so I was told.
It had a recent currency and banking collapse.
If you had a mortgage five years ago of say one million krona ( average home ) and you dutifully paid your mortgage on time and did nothing else, ( loans etc.) your current mortgage balance would be approximately one million three hundred thousand krona --- you read that right. I learned this by talking to one with a mortgage.

It is supposedly hard to find an apartment to rent, but most empty apartments are owned by banks who don't want to rent them.

A one liter bottle of Icelandic made vodka costs about 9,700 krona or 85 US dollars. That same bottle in the US costs about 25 dollars.

??????

[Higgenbotham]

That is my opine from the early view we discussed h

http://winteractionables.com/?p=12972#more-12972

I'm in the minority on this but I don't think they have control of it. I don't believe the US government or the NSA is the well oiled machine some think it is. Cheney has some knowledge and experience and probably the current administration or the bureaucracy brings him into the loop from time to time on new developments to seek advice. My guess would be that he has been brought into the loop because there are developing problems and a newfound awareness. Obviously the President is not going to come on television in this day and age and say we have a developing terror problem we don't believe we can control. John quoted the Lebanese expert on ISIS and somewhere else I believe John mentioned that 100 Americans have ISIS training. Here's the mention: "On May 24, a gunman entered the Jewish Museum in Brussels and shot three people dead, wounding a fourth. It turned out that the perpetrator had been trained in Syria, and had spent a year fighting there. Thousands of young men from Europe have gone to Syria for jihadist training, as have almost 100 Americans." About 3 years ago Lily and I discussed the idea that 250 well trained and coordinated operatives might be able to bring the centralized structure down. I think it is more vulnerable now.

There may be an alternative explanation to this. The banks are insolvent and they might want a false flag cyber attack to wipe the electronic slate clean and start over. My gut feel is Obama is not going to go for that. If he has said he won't, are all these scandals suddenly going to become important? The Wall Street Journal has been harshly criticizing Obama this week. Why the Wall Street Journal? Why now? Did Obama finally refuse to give the banks something they wanted? From the Wall Street Journal:
"The High Price of Obama Fatigue
The IRS isn't Watergate; it's worse than Watergate.
With 2½ years left in the Obama presidency, it is at least an open question what will be left of it by December 2016. Or us."
The IRS has been known to be targeting Americans for how long?

[aedens]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-2 ... day-1550et

broken is the new fixed so..

http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2 ... s&ru=yahoo

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-2 ... ing-normal nwc

the spice must flow

the web of time

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4APCNbGIc0s

[Higgenbotham]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-2 ... ing-normal

I think margin debt can still matter for 2 reasons. One reason is it indicates the psychology has changed at the peak of margin debt. The second reason is that, as the bubble gets larger, it will take less to pop it, so while margin debt may be less significant it could still be the deciding factor. It could take longer for it to be the deciding factor.

Another thought is that when people who have said margin debt doesn't matter get noticed and people start to agree, that is further indication of the bubble psychology reaching a max. In 2007, the stock market peaked 3 months after margin debt peaked, and we just finished month 4 now. That's not radically different yet but psychologically folks are throwing in the towel and saying it doesn't matter.

[Higgenbotham]

I'm on the lookout for a stock market crash between now and July 8.

[aedens]

We are 14 days apart on our longer term views H
I think sky net understands these constructs also
in these troubled times trended. Even before the
scaling back on POMO it was defered a short time.
At these times indeed lucky and good is all we can do
in this spirit of the age. We will see if brent stabilizes
and wti posted 107.XX upcoming in july.