Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

John wrote:

Higgenbotham wrote:Or maybe I've just lost my mind and really don't understand how things are supposed to work.

All of us in this forum have lost our minds, Higgy.

Lost some money and lost some confidence anyway. One good crash and we will be fine.

Trying to help people understand hyperinflation I posting with a bunch of examples of positive feedback loops:

Avalanche

A bunch of snow can be sitting on a steep mountain so that it is almost ready to slide. If something, say a little rabbit, then causes some of it to move, then that can cause more, which causes more, etc. A small trigger can set off a chain reaction that causes a huge amount of snow to slide down the mountain.

Forest Fire

If there is a high enough density of burnable material in the forest, then a single ignition can set of a chain reaction where a whole forest burns down.

Earthquake

There are two plates of earth touching each other. But they are slowly pushing past each other. For many years the ground just slightly flexes under the strain. However, at some point part of the ground rips. After the first part rips the strain is too much for the next part and it also rips. This chain reaction continues down the fault line often for miles.


Volcano

Water is mixed in the lava but under such pressure that it does not turn into steam even though it is very hot. However, if some of the lava on top breaks through the earth dam around the lava and spills out then there is less pressure on the lava below. If there is enough less pressure that the water turns to steam it can throw off the top of the lava. This then reduces the pressure on the lava further below which then also releases steam. This chain reaction can continue till huge quantities of lava are thrown into the air as volcanic ash.

Blood Clotting

The loop is initiated when injured tissue releases signal chemicals that activate platelets in the blood. An activated platelet releases chemicals to activate more platelets, causing a rapid cascade and the formation of a blood clot.


Hurricane Formation

The faster the wind goes the more heat is transferred from the ocean to the air.
The more heat there is in the air, the faster the wind blows. So you get a positive feedback loop leading to really strong winds.

Ice Age

The more snow the more sunlight is reflected back into space and the colder it gets. The colder it gets the more snow accumulates. You can get a positive feedback loop where much of the Earth ends up covered with snow.

Not only is there a feedback loop as the snow advances, there is also one as it recedes. The warmer it gets the less land is covered with snow. The less land covered with snow, the warmer it gets. So the snow marches forward as far as it can and then it marches backward.

Domino Avalanche

Set up dominoes so that the first one will knock over 2 others, and each of those will knock over 2 more, etc. So with each time increment there will be twice as many dominoes falling. One little push can then cause many dominoes to fall over.

Landslide

This is much like an avalanche but earth instead of snow. There is a bunch of earth on a slope and once some of it starts to break more and more follows till there is lots of earth sliding down.

Earth Dam Failure

If a little bit of water goes over or through an earth dam it can erode a bit of the dam. This makes for a bigger path for water and so water flows faster. This then removes earth faster and so water flows faster and faster. With this positive feedback loop, an earth dam can be quickly destroyed.

Snowball

With the right hill and snow you can start a small snowball rolling down the hill and it will grow and grow and grow.

http://www.howfiatdies.blogspot.com/201 ... ry-of.html

vincecate wrote:Trying to help people understand hyperinflation I posting with a bunch of examples of positive feedback loops:

http://www.howfiatdies.blogspot.com/201 ... ry-of.html

I believe stock market crashes are also positive feedback loops:
1) as stocks go down people get margin calls and have to sell
2) as stocks get "volatile" regulators increase margin requirements (seems 4x now and sometimes 2x or less I think)
This will also force some people on margin to sell.
3) many people are just following the trend and if the trend seems to be down they sell
All the selling causes each of the causes above to get stronger. So it is a positive feedback loop.

Any other positive feedback driving a stock crash?

Wiki also says it is a positive feedback loop:

"Stock market crashes are social phenomena where external economic events combine with crowd behavior and psychology in a positive feedback loop where selling by some market participants drives more market participants to sell. Generally speaking, crashes usually occur under the following conditions:[1] a prolonged period of rising stock prices and excessive economic optimism, a market where P/E ratios exceed long-term averages, and extensive use of margin debt and leverage by market participants."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_crash

John wrote:

Higgenbotham wrote:Or maybe I've just lost my mind and really don't understand how things are supposed to work.

All of us in this forum have lost our minds, Higgy.

John

The breakdown in standards in the Engineering profession (if you could seriously call it a profession) has been going on for awhile but I got more confirmation of that this month in following up on a situation that occurred in the year 2000.

I don't know if you all remember, but it seems like when a skywalk collapsed in Kansas City about 30 years ago, the engineers responsible went to prison. I'll look into that to confirm. (In fact they lost their licenses but were absolved of criminal negligence. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyatt_Rege ... y_collapse)

In the year 2000, I was told to inspect a mercury recycling plant. It wasn't too long after that a colleague warned me that the director of our region had met with an attorney who wanted any violations found at the recycler swept under the rug. Apparently, my role was to generate enough useful information to do that.

To make a long story short I told them I could not do that. I characterized the plant as "an accident waiting to happen". I suggested they find another engineer to do their dirty work because I wasn't going to, and they did.

So this month I decided to do a search for that and lo and behold there was an explosion and release of mercury in 2003 and another one in 2006. Result? The company was fined a "slap on the wrist" amount of $54,000 by EPA. Nobody went to prison, nothing. I distinctly recall being concerned that if I gave that facility the "Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval" that I might one day be going to prison when the likely explosion and release did occur.

http://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpress.ns ... Expand=5.2

I had also heard rumors that 4 drums of PCBs had been unaccounted for.

When we're talking about an industrial civilization that is in the process of collapse, I think there's a lot the average person who hasn't seen some of the inner workings of the ugly, filthy beast can't imagine.

The link above is so full of holes and bullshit it is laughable. It's a complete joke. It says, "EPA inspectors found that the company failed to do so." That is a joke. Sure, they found that 3 or 6 years after there was a release of mercury that the company failed to prevent a release of mercury. Let me tell you what's really going on at the EPA Region 5 Chicago Office. One of their inspectors showed up at my office one day because there was a large facility where there were a number of violations of air pollution regulations that the state political hacks were once again trying to sweep under the rug and somebody (not me) had blown the whistle. She told me that she had been told to inspect the facility but "really didn't know how to inspect". That's the reality on the ground. EPA doesn't find shit unless it's already happened. Where were they 3 or 6 years before the damn thing exploded?

Losing 4 drums of PCBs is a very huge deal. We are talking about stuff that causes damage at levels of parts per billion, bioaccumulates through the food chain, and ends up in the tissues of living things all the way up in the Arctic Circle. This is really dangerous stuff; this is not a $54,000 deal. In my opinion it's as serious and very likely more serious than a skywalk collapse. A skywalk collapse is a one shot calculable deal in terms of damage and loss of life but if drums of PCBs aren't being properly handled and that is considered acceptable, the damage is not limited to one incident nor can it be easily determined. We have Michelle Obama trying to tell us why kids are diabetic and overweight. The high fructose corn syrup or what have you may be a factor, but accumulation of poisons that are dumped into the environment can be another related factor and contemplating that is oh so much more difficult than solving a quadratic equation.

The whole system is a corrupt joke from top to bottom and across the spectrum of food, environment, education, health, finance, energy and anything else you care to look at. We've been talking mostly about financial corruption here but it all basically works the same. Today, the function of any politician or political hack in general is to funnel money to corrupt elites who function as parasites destroying any vestige of moral goodness or environmental soundness that happens to be left in the system that they can exploit until it is all spent and the civilization is in complete ruins. Fukushima (TEPCO, General Electric, and the Japanese government) is the best example I can think of offhand but it all works roughly the same.

Why are PCBs being Regulated?

In 1974, Congress passed the Safe Drinking Water Act. This law requires EPA to determine safe levels of chemicals in drinking water which do or may cause health problems. These non-enforceable levels, based solely on possible health risks and exposure, are called Maximum Contaminant Level Goals.

The MCLG for PCBs has been set at zero because EPA believes this level of protection would not cause any of the potential health problems described below.

Based on this MCLG, EPA has set an enforceable standard called a Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL). MCLs are set as close to the MCLGs as possible, considering the ability of public water systems to detect and remove contaminants using suitable treatment technologies.

The MCL has been set at 0.5 parts per billion (ppb) because EPA believes, given present technology and resources, this is the lowest level to which water systems can reasonably be required to remove this contaminant should it occur in drinking water. These drinking water standards and the regulations for ensuring these standards are met, are called National Primary Drinking Water Regulations. All public water supplies must abide by these regulations.

What are the Health Effects?

Short-term: EPA has found PCBs to potentially cause the following health effects when people are exposed to it at levels above the MCL for relatively short periods of time: acne-like eruptions and pigmentation of the skin; hearing and vision problems; spasms.

Long-term: PCBs has the potential to cause the following effects from a lifetime exposure at levels above the MCL: effects similar to acute poisonings; irritation of nose, throat and gastrointestinal tracts; changes in liver function; cancer.

http://www.epa.gov/safewater/pdfs/facts ... c/pcbs.pdf

This is what EPA tells the public on the one hand but on the other hand waste handlers who can't properly account for drums of this stuff are slapped on the wrist with a fine of $54,000 and allowed to stay in business?

Higgenbotham wrote: > The breakdown in standards in the Engineering profession (if you
> could seriously call it a profession) has been going on for awhile
> but I got more confirmation of that this month in following up on
> a situation that occurred in the year 2000.

I have a slightly different perspective on this, because I work as a
Senior Software Engineer. After the Nasdaq crash, I couldn't even get
anyone to answer the phone, and I almost didn't survive. Then I was
able to get some short-term jobs. But in the 2005-2008 time frame,
things were really insane. I'd go to an interview, and I'd be asked
unbelievably dumb questions, like did I have experience with version
3.4 of some tool (experience with version 3.3 was not acceptable).

However, in the last 3-4 years, things have changed a lot. Recruiters
are calling me because I've had a lot of experience, though
fortunately I have one of the best sw engineering jobs I've had in my
life. I've talked to recruiters about this. Hiring managers have
learned some hard lessons, and have had software disasters. They've
had bad experiences with "engineers" who know some tool or other, but
can't handle problems that arise. And a lot of hiring managers have
given up offshoring completely, and have become really contemptuous of
it.

There's been a similar path in so-called "financial engineering,"
where fraud was rampant in the 2000-2008 time frame, and anyone
could get away with anything, but things really changed after
that.

So I see the last decade in all forms of engineering as a pendulum
swing -- towards total irresponsibility and fraud until 2008, and then
swinging back towards more responsibility and accountability since
2008. We still have a long way to go, but I do believe that the
previous trend direction has been reversed.

John

John wrote:So I see the last decade in all forms of engineering as a pendulum
swing -- towards total irresponsibility and fraud until 2008, and then
swinging back towards more responsibility and accountability since
2008. We still have a long way to go, but I do believe that the
previous trend direction has been reversed.

Higgenbotham wrote:The whole system is a corrupt joke from top to bottom and across the spectrum of food, environment, education, health, finance, energy and anything else you care to look at. We've been talking mostly about financial corruption here but it all basically works the same. Today, the function of any politician or political hack in general is to funnel money to corrupt elites who function as parasites destroying any vestige of moral goodness or environmental soundness that happens to be left in the system that they can exploit until it is all spent and the civilization is in complete ruins. Fukushima (TEPCO, General Electric, and the Japanese government) is the best example I can think of offhand but it all works roughly the same.

It appears that the individual engineer has been forced by their managements to become more accountable over the past 5 years in terms of doing their jobs correctly, as determined by management. However, I don't think that corporations and governments have been forced to become more accountable. In many cases, such as the case with Fukushima or the cases I've talked about, that previous lack of accountability has a long shelf life. If faulty equipment designs have been put in place or persistent contaminants have been allowed to escape into the environment, they are still out there and the damage is ongoing and can't be undone. Going through my list from the beginning, Monsanto may have some really great and accountable genetic engineers producing their GMO seeds but the laxity in policing the genetic engineers that may have occurred prior to 2009 is not the problem. I won't go into details on why GMO is a problem here. Similarly, there may be some great and accountable fracking engineers out there in terms of being diligent in blowing contaminants into the earth at high pressure to extract the last remaining oil, but it still appears that fracking is a huge financial bubble induced by the Federal Reserve holding interest rates at zero, as well as a huge environmental disaster. Similarly, I won't try to parse the details of the environmental damage or increased seismic activity that fracking is probably causing, but in going through the list there is most likely some activity, likely more than one, that is causing irreversible and consequential damage, whether it be GMO, fracking or something else.

Looking at the case of Fukushima in particular, the disaster occurred in 2011 and I see no increased demand for accountability from TEPCO or General Electric compared to what would have been demanded had the disaster occurred prior to 2009. Nor do I see any accountability or expertise being displayed on a worldwide basis in terms of containing the disaster. From what I understand, the US has refused to lend any expertise because the US government demanded the Japanese absolve General Electric of any wrongdoing and the Japanese refused to do so.

Getting back to the original situation I brought up about the US engineering school that had an incorrect problem solution in one of its solution sets, I think that also illustrates where things are more broadly. The engineering student, the individual engineer in other words, will be responsible for coming up with the correct solution on the exam or in future professional endeavors, no matter how faulty the institution has been. The institution itself will not be accountable in any way for publishing the incorrect solution, nor will any action be taken to ensure it doesn't happen in the future. The only function of the educational institution at its core is to extract outrageous sums of money from the student for the benefit of corrupt elites.

Zbigniew Brzezinski stated prior to Clinton’s Lewinsky scandal that we needed another failed president (i.e. Nixon) to destroy Americans trust in their
government to bring about a New World Order. On a Corporate level since ERP and SAP as noted people think software was a step in the right direction.
The only thing I can note is the opex was rather late. Many forget as Higg already knows calculating blast zones was a piss poor business plan but they
did it anyways. Size matters as we resolve old wounds most cannot even remember or for that matter fathom.

We have recovered enough scruples to get to phase three of our recovery plan on numerous issues. To be blunt the old is the new since process safety management.

"So just as the tares are gathered up and burned with fire, so shall it be at the end of the age."

We cover many topics here and have considered many secular and nonsecular issues from the advantage that steel sharpens steel.

The number "7" symbolises completeness or a finished work, while the number "70" signifies 'perfect spiritual order carried out with all spiritual power and significance'
(Bullinger, 1921, p.235). Therefore, 490, being the product of 70 x 7, signifies spiritual perfection of perfect order and completeness.